PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS: ELECTIONS IN 2008

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 002930

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS: ELECTIONS IN 2008
WILL BE A CHALLENGE

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Robert Ford for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Senior Iraqi election commission (IHEC)
officials told us September 9 that they require 135 days of
lead time between passage of an election law and the holding
of elections to organize credible provincial elections. They
indicated that January 2009 was the earliest date an election
could be held. They expressed concern that pressure -- from
within Iraq or outside -- to compress the timeline would
undermine the credibility of the elections. Meanwhile, a
well-placed international expert working with the election
commission told us that the commission so far has adequate
resources and the institutional capacity to hold an election
in late January. He and a UNAMI official both think IHEC
could conduct an election this year, but compressing the
timeline to do that would strain IHEC's capabilities. As a
result, holding elections this year would likely necessitate
more direct international assistance to the commission,
especially in facilitating operational procurements. It
would necessarily reduce the international donors' focus on
building IHEC's organization capacity. An international
expert working with the election commission asserted to us on
September 8 that reducing the time for election candidate
registration and the duration of the challenge period in
order to hold elections this year also could hurt the
election's credibility. End Summary.

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IHEC: We Need Four Months
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2. (C) Polmincouns met with senior officials of the
Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) Kasim Al-Abodi
and Dr. Usama A. Alani on September 9 to discuss IHEC's
planning and timelines for the upcoming provincial elections.
Both officials stressed that technical preparations up to
now, including voter registration and data entry, had gone
smoothly despite the absence of an election law. Judge
Kassim and Al-Alani both expressed concern that Iraq's
leadership and political parties will make the IHEC the
scapegoat if elections are in any way flawed, whether in
conduct or timing. The officials said the commission was
doing its utmost to prepare the ground work for elections
whenever they might be held to avoid providing any grist to
such charges. Some activities, such as the voter
registration, exposed the IHEC to some risk since they had
expended government funds without actually having an election
officially in the offing.


3. (C) The officials observed that ensuring the credibility
of the election was essential and could only be assured with
a minimum lead time of 135 days between passage of an
election law and the holding of the election. They asserted
that late January 2009 was the earliest a credible election
could be held, assuming expeditious passage of an election
law following the opening of parliament on September 9.


4. (C) Judge Kassim listed some of the tasks that must be
done to hold provincial elections but which cannot be done
before the passage of an election law. For example, they
cannot register candidates or political coalitions until the
new law defines the criteria for them. They cannot register
internally displaced persons to vote until the law defines
precisely what documentation would be required for
registration. They cannot print ballots until they know if
there is an open or closed list system. An open-list system
would require candidate names and a very different ballot
layout for the printers. He pointed to limitations of the
2005 law, which was drafted for national, not provincial,
elections. For example, there are provisions in the new
provincial powers law that conflict with elements of the 2005
law, such as the number of seats in provincial councils.

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IHEC Abilities and Tradeoffs
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5. (C) An international elections expert who works closely
with IHEC suggested to us September 8 that the commission's
critical path to elections could be reduced to 105 days.
This shorter time span would require that IHEC take Ramadan
'eid and other holidays. He concurred that with this lead
time, generally speaking, IHEC could prepare conduct the
provincial council elections, but he raised concern about the
credibility of the resulting election. He highlighted that
international advisors would have to take a greater role in
the preparations, while the registration and challenge
periods would have to be shortened.


6. The expert opined - in an entirely personal capacity -
that October 1 is the absolute latest date for a new

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elections law if there are to be elections by the end of the
year. Passage of a law beyond this would compress candidate
registration and political bloc registration beyond the point
of credibility. (Separately, on September 6 Peter Bartu,
UNAMI's senior political advisor, told us that his team
believes that elections could be organized within 90 days of
the passage of an elections law.) Holding elections with
only three months' advance notice would require much more
international direct involvement, he cautioned.


7. (C) The expert warned that compressing the timeline to
enable elections before the end of the year will severely
challenge IHEC's institutional capacities, exacerbating the
existing inefficiencies that long-term international
assistance is trying to address. For example, IHEC needs
help with contracting, both in drafting and executing tenders
and other paperwork. He recounted that IHEC officials, even
with the 135-day timeline, have asked the UN to complete both
the paperwork and provide funds for polling kits, ballots,
and other elections-related goods and services. The UN has
told IHEC that it does not plan to provide this kind of
assistance.

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Election Commission Finances Good
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8. (C) IHEC's financial relationship with the Ministry of
Finance is normalized. IHEC has a 42 billion dinar
institutional budget for 2008, and a budget request of 56
billion dinars for 2009. In addition, there are separate
operational budgets granted for each election event. 225
million dollars has been allocated for the 2008 provincial
elections. According to the expert, these funds should be
sufficient. Liquidity so far is good: the first tranche (USD
100 million) of the parliamentary elections budget has been
released and USD 20 million spent. (Thus, he noted, it
makes no sense for international organizations to provide
funds to IHEC for procurement.) The second tranche is
contingent on passage of an election law, and will require a
report to the Finance Ministry on disbursements of the first
tranche. (Note: The expert said IHEC is "starving" its
offices in the KRG -- where there will be no provincial
elections -- to use the monies elsewhere. He worried about
the possibility that the KRG might seek to fund this office,
which could give it undue influence. End note.) IHEC has
begun election procurements where possible in advance of the
elections, with IFES and UNAMI encouragement.

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But the Paperwork Is Excessive
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9. (C) Excessive centralization impedes IHEC's ability to
efficiently procure supplies and equipment, particularly
with non-Iraqi vendors. The expert cited as an example that
Governorate Elections Office (GEO) managers' discretionary
spending authorization is limited to 100,000 dinars (USD 90).
GEO expenditures up to approximately USD 2,500 can be
approved by a GEO committee. Anything more requires IHEC
Baghdad approval. The expert noted that the recent
establishment of e-mail capability will facilitate GEO-IHEC
communication, but agreed that given such tight limitations
on discretionary spending, IHEC will likely be inundated with
constant procurement approval requests. Ramadan has hindered
the operational effectiveness of existing local budget
committees.

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Staffing Challenges Too
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10. (C) Staffing is another challenge. The expert noted
that 20 percent of officers with experience from the 2005
parliamentary elections had left. This is a particular
challenge given IHEC's need to ramp up GEO and other local
staffing for the provincial elections. The expert also said
that IHEC is more politicized than its predecessor in
2004-05, the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq (IECI),
because the law that established IHEC stipulates a process
whereby commissioners and GEO managers are nominated by the
Council of Representatives.

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Dispute Settlement Mechanism Not Ready
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11. (C) IHEC will also have to move quickly after the
passage of an elections law to develop implementing
regulations and logistical arrangements. This will be
challenging even with adequate lead time. The expert
identified development of a sound dispute resolution

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mechanism as critical. Working closely with IFES and UNAMI,
IHEC has begun work on this, but requires an election law to
finish. The expert said that even once this framework is
developed, the modalities for investigating and processing
disputes with the security services will need to be
established, and local police forces trained in their duties
and responsibilities with respect to enforcing provisions of
the election law.


12. (C) The expert predicted that IHEC would require
substantial procurement and logistical assistance to pull
off provincial elections by the end of 2008. He said the
programmatic shift from longer-term institutional
development of IHEC to conducting elections in December could
compromise international efforts to build IHEC capacity. He
also warned that an abbreviated critical path would mean that
IHEC would not be able to work on anything else but the
provincial elections. Ongoing work on establishing district
and sub-district council units, preparing for potential
constitutional referenda, elections in the KRG, and
parliamentary elections would fall by the wayside. He also
expressed concern that truncating candidate registration and
challenge periods could jeopardize the election's
credibility.


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Comment
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13. (C) Our policy has been to focus on building IHEC's
long-term capacity. Although the combination of USAID and
UNAMI assistance to the IHEC has been substantial, we have
minimized direct involvement in IHEC management operations to
compel it to develop its own organizational capacity. The
warning the international expert left us is that if we
want elections by year's end, we will need to be much more
directly involved in IHEC's procurement, managerial, and
organizational operations. USAID would also have to
reprogram funds, sacrificing on-going long-term capacity
building activities. Of course, UNAMI has the lead in
coordinating assistance to the IHEC and we will stay in close
contact with its team as we assess IHEC's abilities to
conduct provincial elections on relatively short notice.
CROCKER