SOUTH PREPARES FOR PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS; ISCI AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002875

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: SOUTH PREPARES FOR PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS; ISCI AND
DA'WA INCREASINGLY DIVIDED

REF: A. BAGHDAD 2857

B. HILLAH 75

C. BAGHDAD 2803

Classified By: Senior Advisor Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
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1. (C) In a series of discussions with Senior Advisor Gordon
Gray, leaders of all major Shi'a political affiliations
expressed a preference that provincial elections occur in
December 2008, though they doubt that the soon-to-reconvene
Council of Represenatives (CoR) will pass a law in time for
elections to take place. ISCI and Da'wa are growing
increasingly divided on pre- and post-election strategy
throughout the South. The Babil General Elections Officer
noted that the northern Sunni parts of his province now have
a greater percentage of registered voters than the majority
Shi'a areas. End summary.

Everyone says they want December elections
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2. (C) When discussing provincial elections, the response
among politicians in the Middle Euphrates region is
universal: we want elections by December 22; the other
parties do not. In separate August 25-26 meetings in Hillah,
Da'wa Provincial Council (PC) member Abu Ahmed al-Basri, ISCI
representative Sayyid Hafud al-Yassiri, Sadrist PC member
Murtada Kamil, and independent Shi'a PC member al-Ameedi
expressed variations on the theme. Different opinions were
expressed on how quickly CoR might pass a law to enable
elections to take place. Al-Basri, a business associate of
Prime Minister Maliki from their Syria days and reportedly
still a close confidant, estimated that CoR would take until
October to pass a law, which might push elections into early

2009. In his view, the Kurds and ISCI have the most to lose
if an election is held in December and they will use the
Kirkuk issue to delay elections as long as possible. No one
was confident that a law would be passed early in the CoR
session beginning September 9.


3. (C) Basra Province Governor Wa'eli, speaking with Gray on
September 2 (ref C),expressed an alternative view. While as
a Fadhilah member he supports the provincial elections law
draft that passed on July 22, he is most concerned with
scheduling by February 2009 a referendum on forming a Basra
Regional Government. He admitted that he has no interest in
holding provincial elections before a referendum takes place,
and, if an election does take place, he believes that the
formation of Basra Region would render the results null and
void.

Different ISCI Priorities
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4. (C) When asked about the most important issue facing the
voters, most party officials told Gray that provision of
services was paramount. Sadrist and tribal leaders,
including the Dhi Qar and Muthanna sheikhs who met with Gray
on September 2 (ref A),are particularly insistent on this
point. ISCI representatives in some cases expressed
different priorities. In an August 27 meeting in his office,
Diwaniyah PC Chairman Khalidi told Gray that providing
security was the foremost concern for voters in his province.
Yassiri, an imam who is considered an associate and
represenative of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, talked of the need to
provide services but emphasized the personal reputation of
candidates and the strong religious faith of the voters.
Yassiri was also the only interlocutor to say that his party
supported closed list elections, though he was far from
insistent on the point, leaving the impression that he would
prefer that voters not know that ISCI favors a closed list.

ISCI and Da'wa
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5. (C) Da'wa and ISCI representatives offered views that
suggested that the ruling coalition members are increasingly
moving in different directions. ISCI leaders Yassiri and
Khudari said that their party is committed to maintaining an
alliance with the Kurds and Da'wa. Yassiri in particular
downplayed the role of tribes in the upcoming elections, and
accused Sunni tribes in Northwest Babil of displacing Shi'a
residents. The imam, like his Sadrist and independent Shi'a
colleagues, also strongly criticized the decision by
Coalition Forces (CF) to release accused murderer Ahmed Zaki,
a Sunni from North Babil with Sons of Iraq connections.
(Note: CF have subsequently taken Zaki back into custody.
End note.) Meanwhile, Da'wa representative al-Basri accused
his governing coalition partners -- ISCI and the Kurds -- of

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working together to try to delay elections and weaken Prime
Minister Maliki. Throughout the conversation, he spoke in a
manner that made ISCI and the Kurds sound like his party's
chief rivals. He also expressed support for open list
elections (which will be needed to attract tribal support),
spoke strongly about the need to confront Iran, and had a
less emotional response to the Zaki case. The differences
between Babil's ISCI and Dawa representatives presage more
serious splits between the parties, in the province (ref B)
and throughout the country.

Voter Registration
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6. (C) Babil Provincial General Elections Officer Hussein
Kulaiff told Gray on August 26 that voter registration is
lower than expected but was increasing in the final days
before the September 4 deadline. He expects that the
province will be ready to hold elections on December 22 if
CoR passes a new law during its September session, and that
voter registration will increase dramatically once a new law
is finally passed. Kulaiff, who is Shi'a, noted that Sunni
registration in the northern parts of the province has been
outpacing Shi,a registration to the extent that overall
Sunni registration is now significantly higher that Shi'a
registration. He also noted the difficulty in developing
registration procedures for the province's displaced Sunni
families, officially estimated at 12,000, saying that the
process has revealed that many families are not actually
displaced but have claimed that status to receive benefits
from the state.
CROCKER