SOUTHERN SHEIKH ALLIANCE ASKS U.S. TO BROKER A

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002857

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2018
TAGS: POL PGOV PINR IZ
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN SHEIKH ALLIANCE ASKS U.S. TO BROKER A
MEETING WITH GULF STATES

REF: A. BAGHDAD 2595

B. BAGHDAD 2447

Classified By: Team Leader Brad Lynch for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

(U) This is a Muthanna PRT reporting cable.

Summary
--------------


1. (S/REL MCFI) Two tribal leaders who represent a nascent
nationalist, cross-sectarian political movement continued
their dialogue with Senior Advisor Gordon Gray about their
motives, Iranian influence, and the need for U.S. financial
support. When informed that the U.S. could not sponsor or
finance individual parties or candidates, they shifted
approach, asking the U.S. to broker a meeting with Gulf
states such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, or the United Arab
Emirates. Gray declined, emphasizing that at a time when the
U.S. is encouraging other nations to engage with the
Government of Iraq and establish diplomatic missions in Iraq,
brokering a meeting of this sort would send a conflicting
message. The sheikhs noted that the leading Iraqi Shi'a
parties and Iran have taken an interest in this tribal
movement and are attempting to lure the leaders into their
camps. End summary.

&We have a good horse, but it needs backing.8
--------------


2. (C/REL MCFI) During a September 2 follow-up meeting with
Gray at the PRT (earlier contacts in reftel),Sheikhs Hakim
Khazal Khashan (Muthanna) and Ali Munshid (Dhi Qar)
emphasized that the main purpose of their political movement
is to maintain the integrity of the Iraqi Arab nationalist
movement. "We want to empower the tribes and involve them in
the political process. Their role is very important, and it
may be the only way to keep Iraq united and protect us
against Jaysh al-Mahdi and Iran." At this point, however,
the nascent alliance claims that it is out of cash and
requires financial backing in order to continue. The sheikhs
conceded that a planned August 24 political meeting of
nationalist southern (Shi'a) and western (Sunni) tribal
sheikhs in Ramadi -- to be coordinated with prominent Anbar
sheikh Abu Risha -- was postponed indefinitely, in part over
a question of whether to invite Prime Minister Maliki.
(Comment: The postponement of a planned organizing session
with better-funded Sunni sheikhs may have contributed to
their sense of financial urgency. End comment.)

ISCI, Da'wa, and Iran ready to place bets
--------------


3. (C/REL MCFI) The leading Shi'a parties in the south
recognize the importance of tribal organizations in Iraq and
are targeting them with offers of support, which these
sheikhs have rejected. According to Ali Munshid, he has
recently been approached by both ISCI's Dhi Qar
representative and a Da,wa envoy sent by Prime Minister
Al-Maliki. The former offered to help establish and equip
their offices, and the latter invited them to join Da,wa.
In Hakim's words, &It would be easier, more profitable, and
safer for us to join the religious parties, but we have
chosen not to do this.8 They also claimed that overtures to
tribal leaders are being made by Iranian interests, but did
not give specific details about recruiting. In several
instances, the sheikhs, especially Munshid, spoke of Iraqi
religious parties (especially ISCI) and Iranian intelligence
interests interchangeably.

U.S. support requested
--------------


4. (C/REL MCFI) Although informed during previous meetings
that the U.S. supports a democratic political process and not
individual candidates or parties, the sheikhs, opening bid
was for U.S. financial assistance. They believe that their
objectives are well aligned with U.S. interests and, unlike
the elected government, immune to Iranian influence. In
Hakim,s words, "We don,t have a religious ideology, and
there is no risk of outside influence." They also reported
that there is a spirited debate among tribal alliance members
regarding Iran,s offers of financial assistance. Some
believe that they should work with "the devil" now and deal
with him later, once they are established in a position of
power. Others feel that this is a dangerous game to play.


5. (C/REL MCFI) When the sheikhs realized that direct U.S.
support would not be forthcoming, they shifted to their
backup request, that the U.S. broker a meeting with a third
party. Referring to the Gulf states, Hakim said, "We share
the same problem (Iran),and they will be next. Iraq is on

BAGHDAD 00002857 002 OF 002


the front line; if we fall, they will fall." Gray explained
that the U.S. is working to convince regional governments to
engage with the Government of Iraq and to establish
diplomatic missions in Iraq and to work with the
democratically elected government. Brokering a meeting such
as this would send a contradictory message to those nations.

Comment
--------------


6. (S/REL MCFI) Iraqi religious parties understand that a
tribal coalition could be either a valued ally or a
formidable opponent, so the sheikhs are likely correct in
their assertions that Iran has identified Shi'a tribal
leaders as important targets to influence. The recruitment
battle for sheikhs has a high potential for violence, and
both Hakim and Ali Munshid expressed concern for their
personal security. They claimed that an Iranian intelligence
organization document published in mid-August identified Ali
Munshid and two unnamed sheikhs as assassination targets
because they are threatening Iran,s influence in the area.
Muthanna,s governor was assassinated about this time last
year for what most believe to have been his refusal to
cooperate with Iran, so the sheikhs' concern is
understandable. End comment.
BUTENIS