MALIKI REAFFIRMS DESIRE FOR CABINET SHAKE-UP,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000241

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2018
TAGS: MARR MCAP MOPS PGOV PINS PNAT PTER IZ JO SY
SUBJECT: MALIKI REAFFIRMS DESIRE FOR CABINET SHAKE-UP,
CALLS FOR PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS AS EARLY AS JUNE

REF: BAGHDAD 166

Classified By: CDA Patricia A. Butenis for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S) SUMMARY: During the weekly security meeting on January
24 with the Ambassador, Prime Minister Maliki reaffirmed his
desire to reduce the number of cabinet posts and form a
national unity government with ministers from a broad
spectrum of parties including Tawafuq and Iraqiyya. He
expressed confidence the Council of Representatives (CoR)
would pass the Provincial Powers Act within the next week,
leading to early provincial elections. Although he
acknowledged many political hurdles, he suggested they might
occur as early as June. He briefed the Ambassador on issues
facing Iraqi refugees returning from Jordan and Syria, but
noted his intention to use governmental funds to induce
these countries to ease their return. Maliki concluded the
meeting with a discussion about the stalled CoR budget
debate, blaming the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) for the
impasse. END SUMMARY.

Cabinet Shake-up
--------------


2. (S) In his weekly security meeting with the Ambassador, a
relaxed Prime Minister Maliki reaffirmed his desire to
reduce the number of government ministries to around 17 or 18
(Note: there are currently 34 ministers between the
ministries, the ministers' of state and the ministers' of
state without portfolio. End note) and then appoint ministers
from a broad spectrum of parties, including Tawafuq and
Iraqiyya (Note: both parties have boycotted their ministerial
posts since August in a dispute with the government. End
note). Maliki said the Executive Council had already agreed
to this proposal "in principle" but he acknowledged
significant negotiating hurdles, including former PM Allawi's
demands that he fire the two Iraqiyya ministers who refused
to boycott their posts (reftel). While extolling the
patriotism of these two ministers--whom he described as
choosing country over partisan politics--Maliki once again
left the door open to compromise, remarking that a smaller
cabinet with a new set of ministers might provide a
face-saving means to resolving the issue. He described
discussions with the Tawafuq party leaders as progressing
reasonably well, adding that issues without legal or
constitutional constraints could be quickly resolved. The
Ambassador urged Maliki to be flexible in order to set the
right tone for political reconciliation within his
government. Maliki assured the Ambassador he would be
generous in reaching out to them.

Provincial Elections by June?
--------------


3. (S) Turning to pending legislation, Maliki predicted the
Council of Representatives (CoR) would pass the Provincial
Powers Law by January 28, in one of the next three
parliamentary sessions. The Ambassador expressed hope that
passage would lead to early provincial elections. Maliki
concurred, saying he supported new provincial elections "as
soon as possible", possibly as early as June. He lamented
that this position put him at odds with many political
forces. He specifically cited problems with members of the
Iraqi High Commission for Elections, describing them as under
the influence of various political parties. Maliki proposed
adoption of new laws or procedures strictly limiting their
ability to influence the actual balloting. The Prime Minister
noted that the new Special Representative of the Secretary
General to the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq
(UNAMI),Steffan De Mistura, seemed equally optimistic about
holding elections soon,

Iraqi Refugees
--------------


4. (S) Regarding the increasing numbers of refugees returning
home to Iraq, Maliki said Syrian authorities now put the
number at over 700,000 which is causing recession in their
economy. In Jordan, many of those attempting to return now
face fines for overstaying their visas--which they cannot
pay--putting them in limbo as they are forced to further
extend their stay. Maliki said ForMin Zebari and IntMin
Bolani are negotiating with the GOJ to allow these refugees
to leave in return for GOI financial reimbursement for the
visas and transportation. (COMMENT: Post believes the Syrian
estimate on the number of Iraqi returnees is far too
high--probably by several magnitudes--especially considering
that the total Iraqi refugee population in Syria is estimated

BAGHDAD 00000241 002 OF 002


at around 1.2 million; available evidence does not support
the fact that over half of the Iraqi refugees there have
returned. Although good estimates are hard to come by, the
most recent one by the Iraqi Red Crescent Organization says
that 46,000 Iraqi refugees returned from Syria between
September 15 and December 27, 2007. END COMMENT.)

KRG Budget Faces Opposition in CoR
--------------


5. (S) Concluding with a discussion about the current budget
debate in the CoR, Prime Minister Maliki suggested that the
biggest issue was mounting resentment against Kurdish
Regional Government (KRG) demands that the CoR approve
additional funding for Peshmerga salaries. This had
backfired, he said, and there was increasing pressure by
non-Kurdish parties to reduce the KRG's 17 percent share of
allocations. Noting that it would be highly unlikely for the
KRG to "federalize" the Peshmerga or to allow Iraqi Army
bases in Kurdistan, Maliki worried this issue would cause a
major stalemate in the ongoing budget battle
CROCKER