DPM TO AMBASSADOR: "THERE IS NO POLITICAL WILL"

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000021

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2018
TAGS: ECON ETRD EFIN PREL MARR ENRG MOPS NBTS IZ
SUBJECT: DPM TO AMBASSADOR: "THERE IS NO POLITICAL WILL"

REF: BAGHDAD 00003

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S) Summary. Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih spiced a
30 December meeting with Ambassador and CG Petraeus with
complaints that his colleagues in government lacked the
political will needed to steer the country away from civil
war in 2008. He avoided being drawn into any constructive
discussion of trying to launch the New Year with an ambitious
legislative agenda. However, he did commit to make personal
efforts necessary to address pressing problems of the removal
of radioactive materials from Tuwaitha, conduct his own
anti-corruption conference, and resolve problems of Turkish
electricity supplies to Dohuk province. End Summary.

"Making Government Work"
--------------


2. (S) Ambassador Crocker met with DPM -- and Acting Prime
Minister -- Barham Salih on December 30, accompanied by CG
Petraeus, EMIN, and DCG LtGen Rollo. Ambassador and CG
sought to encourage the DPM to embrace a wide-ranging effort
to start 2008 as the Year of Making Government Work. He
hoped that, upon the return of President Talabani to Baghdad
from holiday in Sulaymaniyah (2 or 3 January, per DPM),and
the PM from medical tests in London (date unknown),a quorum
could quickly be achieved in Councils of Ministers and
Representatives (CoM and CoR, respecitvely). Ambassador
stressed that that it would be imperative for the GoI to
prove itself able of conducting the business of the country,
in drafting and passing urgent legislation, pushing services
out to the people, taking control of the country's security,
re-energizing the Legislative Preparatory Committee -- A Year
for Iraqi Institutions.


3. (S) DPM responded that 2008 would either be the Year of
Success, or the Year of Disaster, if Iraq squanders the gains
made in security. "If there is no political will, the
Legislative Preparatory Committee is a waste of time -- and
there is no political will." Ambassador asked him what he
saw as the alternative. DPM responded, "The issue is
political will. We can go through the motions, put check
marks in boxes, but that will all be window-dressing."
Ambassador expressed the hope that smart people in positions
of influence do recognize what's at stake, and that the DPM
was not throwing up his hands in surrender, to which the DPM
replied only "I've made clear my opinion ..." The CG
suggested that passage of legislation on accountability, the
justice system, and budget would be needed within days, not
weeks. The DPM offered that the amnesty law is in draft, and
the budget well along, but expressed little enthusiasm for
"the other stuff, like the oil law."

SOFA and Other
Priority Issues
--------------


4. (S) Ambassador brought up the subject of the Status of
Forces Agreement (SOFA) security portion of the Strategic
Framework Agreement (SFA). He noted that Iraq has only one
more year in special status under the UNSCR and encouraged
the DPM to find a way to get down to serious business on the
SFA, stressing that getting the right people in the room from
the beginning would be critical. The DPM agreed, emphasizing
that those involved must have to have full authority to
negotiate. Ambassador pointed to the problems of services,
of unemployment, and of the situation in Basra, and suggested
that the DPM search for ways to drain some of the animosity
out of the political climate. Ambassador said he would push
hard, as leaders returned, for the different parties to
return to the project of governing, and stressed the
importance of the first meeting of political leaders not
"imploding." DPM responded that he hoped it would be
possible to bring up the SFA in the first week in which the
President, PM, and CoR are all in Baghdad. He then stated,
"We could have a real civil war if we don't get the politics
right. This won't be a conflict with Al Qaeda -- this will
be civil war."

National Investment Law
and Commission
--------------


5. (S) Ambassador noted that the new nominee for head of the
National Investment Commission appeared to be on track for
eventual confirmation. DPM said he was not acquainted with
the nominee, having met him only once, but had heard both
good and indifferent things about him. "Some say, he's
worked only for government his whole professional life -- how
can he promote private investment?" he wondered. He stated
that, even without formal CoR confirmation, the Investment
Commission Head nominee could begin work. Ambassador urged

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that the CoR move quickly to confirm, nonetheless.

Anti-Corruption
Conference
--------------


6. (S) DPM confirmed that, despite the absence of the PM, he
intended to keep to the scheduled January 3, 2008 date for
the GoI's anti-corruption conference, which he intended to
use to establish unambiguous procedures through which to
confront the problem in Iraq.

Dohuk Electricity
Cut-Off Threat
--------------


7. (S) DPM stated that the CoM had approved the same day (30
December) renewal of the electricity delivery contract with
Turkey, under same terms, for the next six months. He said
payment of the existing $20 mn float charge (referred to as
"arrears") will be made, and that this should resolve for the
immediate term the crisis in Dohuk.

Tuwaitha Radioactive Materials Shipment
--------------


8. (S) Ambassador thanked the DPM for efforts to push removal
of irradiators and yellow cake uranium materials from Iraq
within the next days. DPM sought verification that of
actions immediately required: Ministry of Foreign Affairs
notification to IAEA of intention to break seals; GoI
instructions to the Iraqi Facilities Protection Force to
allow the 90-plus member technical team access to specific
buildings on the Tuwaitha site to pack the materials for
shipment; and formal GoI authorization for all pertinent
materials to be removed from the site and the country. He
promised to push the process forward.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (S) DPM Barham Salih seemed particularly glum in the
meeting, countering most suggestions for the need for
energetic efforts to bring true governance to Iraq with dire
predictions of civil war generated by rivalries and the
absence of political will to do right by the country. This
may have been connected to his expressed lack of joy at being
Acting Prime Minister while the PM addressed his medical
concerns -- an event that interrupted his plans to pass the
New Year in Sulaymaniyah with his immediate family, forcing
him to decamp to Baghdad. END COMMENT.
CROCKER