KIRKUK: ATMOSPHERICS FROM PRT MARKET WALKS IN LATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000011

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2017
TAGS: PREL EPET ECON PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: KIRKUK: ATMOSPHERICS FROM PRT MARKET WALKS IN LATE
2007

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Rob Waller for reasons 1.4 (b
,d).

This is a Kirkuk Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) message.


1. (SBU) Summary: The catastrophic summer 2007 explosions in
Kirkuk dampened market activity as residents stayed home and
merchants limited their hours. While violence continued
through September and October, it focused more on GOI
officials than residential and market areas and market
activity increased slightly. Merchants and residents
appeared more confident during a PRT late-November market
walk, and hoped security restrictions would loosen to
promote commerce.

Attacks Limit Commerce in Summer and Early Fall
-------------- --


2. (SBU) The VBIED and IED attacks in July and August 2007
restricted provincial economic activity. Anecdotal
evidence collected by PRT suggested a 50 percent drop in
business following the catastrophic VBIED attack of 16 July
2007 which targeted a market and killed over one hundred
Kirkukis. The CF-supported Al-Aman Microfinance Institute,
which gives loans to businessmen from a satellite office in a
marketplace, reported the same drop during this timeframe.
An unknown group in August distributed Arabic leaflets with
Koranic phrases warning that market attacks would continue,
causing customers to stay away and vendors to curb their
hours, usually closing in the early afternoon. To avoid
going to large markets, many Kirkuk city residents increased
their purchases from neighborhood stores, which tend to be
more expensive.


4. (SBU) Merchants complain that the security restrictions
imposed following this summer,s attacks were hampering
business. Starting in September, merchants said the vehicle
permits the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)
requires restrict trade with and through the Kurdish region,
a major source of wholesale goods sold in Kirkuk. A new
system of inspections and permits for large vehicles
following the July mass-casualty VBIED attack also slowed
the shipment of goods into the city. Merchants similarly
protested that the T-walls and Hesco barriers emplaced
following the summer explosions caused inhibited customer
flow.


5. (SBU) During a series of PRT visits to local markets in
September, PRT officers engaged Kirkukis of varying ages,
ethnicities, and degrees of political engagement. All
interviewees voiced support for co-existence among ethnic
groups and said the politicians were fighting, not the common
people. Many expressed pride that Kirkuk is a multi-ethnic
city with close family ties between Kurds and Turcomen. Even
with the VBIED of July 16 still fresh in residents' minds,
economic conditions were their leading concern. The most
common complaint across all ethnic
groups, including the Kurds, was the unemployment rate and
the inability of educated individuals to get jobs. PRT
found unanimous agreement that business was worse than a year
before, that food sales were down 25-30 percent over
the same period, and that sales of non-food items were down
an average of 50%, although activity increased during
Ramadan.

Rebound Evident Since October
--------------


6. (SBU) Business improved in October as families stockpiled
food for Ramadan and oil and kerosene for the
winter months. Though most residents expected terrorist
activity to escalate in connection with Ramadan, the
limited IED and VBIED activity in October targeted mainly GoI
officials. On 8 November the city experienced three
IEDs on one day, but these again targeted GOI officials,
especially security force members, and did not reduce market
activity.


7. (SBU) During a late November walk through the same market
PRT visited in September, conditions had markedly
improved. Neither merchants nor customers listed security as
a concern, although all found the barriers restrictive to
trade. While residents still expressed concern regarding
employment, they also articulated unwonted optimism about
Kirkuk,s future. The Governor of Kirkuk accompanied PRT
officials during this market walk and
residents of all ethnicities expressed elation at meeting
both PRT members and the Governor.

BAGHDAD 00000011 002 OF 002



Comment
--------------


8. (C) Market activity varies directly with the level of
violence in the city. Even after the catastrophic
explosions, merchants, complaints over vehicle restrictions
and security barriers indicate a desire to move forward with
commerce in spite of the risks. PRT plans to expand its
market walks outside the city and to conduct more walks in
the company of provincial officials, which the population
seems to welcome.
CROCKER