FADILA BLOC MEMBER DR. BASIM SHARIF ON THE COR, PM

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 001020

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KISL IZ
SUBJECT: FADILA BLOC MEMBER DR. BASIM SHARIF ON THE COR, PM
MALIKI, AND THE SADRISTS.

Classified By: Political Counselor Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary: In a frank conversation held at the
al-Rasheed Hotel in Baghdad, COR and Fadila bloc member Dr.
Basim Sharif al-Hechaimi discussed the recent Iraqi military
operation in Basra. Decrying what he considered a unilateral
act on the part of the PM, Dr. Basim highlighted the recent
action as further proof that "the PM is moving away from
democracy to dictatorship." He also stated that the Council
of Representatives (COR) has become one of the casualties of
the PM's recent adventure, positing that the COR has not only
become weaker, but that it has also become extremely
polarized. Asked whether Fadila would join the Sadrists if
they pursue a no-confidence vote against the PM, Dr. Basim
remained noncommittal. Commenting on relations between the
PM and the Sadrists, Dr. Basim stated that the Sadrists
believe that the PM is trying to destroy the movement, and is
no longer making any distinction between the Sadr Trend,
JAM, and the rogue Special Groups. He also indicated that
many Sadrists viewed the restraint shown by Coalition
Forces during the recent hostilities as "very positive," and
that there are a number of Sadr Trend leaders who would
like to enter into dialogue with the United States. End
summary.


2. (C) Vociferous in his criticism of the PM's recent
military operation, Dr. Basim said that many members of the
COR were taken aback by the PM's unilateral action, having
never been consulted about his plans or intentions. He added
that this was yet another example of the PM ignoring the
democratic institutions of the state. Though he did not
explicitly state that Fadila would support a no-confidence
vote against Maliki, he could not refrain from reiterating
his party's antipathy towards the current government, while
assuring Poloff that Fadila still supports the GOI. He also
stated that if the PM embarked on a plan of national
reconciliation, Fadila would wholeheartedly support him, but
quickly added that Fadila does not believe the PM would ever
do this. When pressed again whether Fadila would line up
with the Sadrists behind a no-confidence vote, Dr. Basim
instead named other blocs within the COR who he believes may
support a no-confidence vote, including Tawafuq, Iraqiyya,
and the Kurds, though he appeared less than certain that any
of these groups would join, even if a vote were to go forward.


3. (C) In an interesting commentary, Dr. Basim stated that
the COR has become one of the casualties of the PM's recent
action. In Dr. Basim's estimation, the PM's military
operation illustrates his desire to acquire more power and
marginalize the other institutions of the state, particularly
the COR. In addition, he lamented that the COR has become
extremely fragmented and polarized. At a time when it needs
to focus on significant legislation, it is now riven by
internal squabbles, and now no longer resembles a parliament
but instead a collection of parties and blocs. He appeared
extremely concerned that significant legislation may languish
in the COR if the various blocs within the institution do not
put the brakes on their internal quarrels.


4. (C) Regarding the recent conflict, Dr. Basim said that
many Sadrists now believe that the PM is trying to destroy
the movement, and is no longer making any distinction between
the Sadr Trend, JAM, and the rogue Special Groups. To him,
there is a genuine fear among the Sadrists that the PM will
continue anti-Sadrist operations, and that his primary motive
is a desire to weaken the Sadrists prior to the upcoming
elections, hinting that ISCI is pushing the PM
to do this. On an interesting note, Dr. Basim said that the
Sadrists viewed America's restraint during the current crisis
as "very positive," and were pleased that the U.S. had not
acted with a "heavy hand." He also revealed that there are
an increasing number of Sadr Trend leaders who would like to
enter into dialogue with the United States, and offered
Fadila's assistance in facilitating any such dialogue.


5. (C) Comment: Our soundings of other political figures,
including leaders of Iraqiya and Tawafuq, indicate that for
now there is a "rally around the PM" effect taking, with the
Sadrists and Fadila somewhat isolated. However, in Iraq's
fluid political environment, backing for the PM can wax or
wane quickly. Although Dr. Basim did not address directly
Fadila's views on the future of Basra, we will continue to
watch whether as a result of this week's events Fadila
evinces an even stronger interest in transforming Basrah into
a region, a project that might well spark a separate
political crisis down the road. End Comment.

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