AMAR AL-HAKIM ON MALIKI, BILATERAL SECURITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000101

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2023
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: AMAR AL-HAKIM ON MALIKI, BILATERAL SECURITY
AGREEMENT, AND ELECTIONS

REF: 07 BAGHDAD 3799 (ISCI AND FEDERALISM)

Classified By: Political Counselor Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary: ISCI Heir Apparent Amar al-Hakim told S/I
Satterfield January 13 that ISCI agrees with the USG position
that the Maliki government must operate in a more inclusive
manner and should start by reactivating the "Three Plus One"
leadership mechanism. Amar, who delivered a well-publicized
January 11 mosque sermon that called for Maliki to reach out
to Sunnis and disaffected Shia parties in order to promote
national unity, said he detected new flexibility throughout
Iraq's political leadership. Hakim said ISCI fully supports
the U.S. wish to negotiate a long-term bilateral security
agreement with a broadly-representative GOI team, adding that
he and his father, ISCI Chairman Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, are
already preparing the Iraqi public for such an agreement
through public meetings and speeches. He maintained that
ISCI shares the USG view that expeditious CoR passage of
pending provincial powers and elections laws is needed, but
complained that Sadrist tampering within the Independent High
Electoral Commission (IHEC) threatens to undermine the
legitimacy of future provincial elections. End Summary.

Helpful Public Statements from Father and Son Hakim
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Satterfield expressed USG appreciation and gratitude
for a recent public statement by the elder Hakim that
expressed general support for Awakening movements ("people's
committees" in the ISCI parlance) and for Amar's
well-publicized Friday January 11 sermon at Baghdad's Baratha
Mosque in which he called for Maliki to reach out to Sunnis
and the Shia Fadhila Party and the Sadrist Trend and bring
them back into the government fold in order to promote
national unity. Amar replied that he and his father
understand the importance of explaining political
developments to Iraq's masses because "when leaders step
forward, the others will follow." He added that such public
statements also motivate the CoR to show courage in dealing
with difficult but vitally important national issues. Amar
said ISCI agrees with the USG stance that the Maliki
government must operate in a more inclusive manner, remarking
that Maliki should start by reactivating the "Three Plus One"
leadership mechanism and implementing the leaders' decisions.
Satterfield underscored that the USG wants to see the
present, dysfunctional, Iraqi government work - and is not
seeking a new government - points on which Hakim said his
father and Ayatollah Sistani concur exactly.


3. (C) Relaxed and jovial, the black-turbaned Amar praised
passage of the De-Baathification law and maintained that no
one benefits from "the current political vacuum" that can be
dealt with only if Iraq's leaders demonstrate real will to
overcome national problems. He said he detected new-found
flexibility among Iraq's leaders, particularly the Sunnis, as
evidenced by VP al-Hashemi's inclusion of an ISCI member in
the delegation he took recently to Kuwaiti where he delivered
a positive, nationalist message. Such increased flexibility
will reduce tension, Amar stated, which in turn allows Iraq's
leaders to work through "personal differences" and focus on
issues of vital national importance.


4. (C) With regard to upcoming negotiations over a long-term
bilateral security agreement, Amar said he shares our view
that the GOI negotiating team should be comprised of members
who represent all of Iraq's political leaders and competent
GOI ministries. Stating that the agreement will serve the
interests of the Iraqi people, he indicated that he and his
father have already begun to shape public receptivity to the
agreement by talking about it in public meetings and
speeches. The Hakims may have occasion to make such points
during the important upcoming Shia religious celebration of
Ashura: Shia groups from throughout Iraq have already begun
to gather in Hakim's housing compound, and we passed throngs
of women draped head to toe in black cloth and young boys
sporting ski caps embroidered with "Ya Ali" who were milling
about pilgrim tents and open-air kitchens as we departed the
ISCI compound.

Supportive of Elections but Wary of IHEC
--------------


5. (C) Amar said ISCI shares the USG view that expeditious
CoR passage of pending provincial powers and elections laws
is needed, opining that Fadhila and the Sadrists have a
positive view of the CoR's draft provincial powers bill
(Maysan's Governor, a Sadrist, personally told Amar of his
support for the draft). Repeating a warning that he has
sounded during previous meetings with USG officials (reftel),
he complained at some length that Sadrist shenanigans within

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the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) threatens to
undermine the legitimacy of future provincial elections.
Amar said he had emphasized this point to UN officials who
have yet to take corrective measures to ensure that coming
elections, like the elections of 2005, are accepted by
winners and losers alike. He asked the USG to weigh in with
the UN on this important topic. Amar confided that ISCI is
still mulling over the relative merits of an "open" or
"closed" election list system, maintaining that each approach
has good and bad points. Satterfield interjected that
experience has shown us that a democracy functions best when
there is a direct link between electors and those to whom
they give their votes.
CROCKER