GREECE/MACEDONIA: GREEKS READY TO ENGAGE ON

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ATHENS 000239

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK GR
SUBJECT: GREECE/MACEDONIA: GREEKS READY TO ENGAGE ON
NIMETZ PROPOSAL

REF: A. ATHENS 231

B. ATHENS 205

Classified By: Ambassador Daniel V. Speckhard for 1.4 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (S) Greek name negotiator Vassilakis reported that Athens
will work from the most recent Nimetz proposal as a basis for
negotiations, but will seek changes to it. PM Karamanlis and
FM Bakoyannis emphasized to Nimetz that Greece will "engage
seriously" as now is the time to resolve this issue. Greece
still believed in a universal solution but Vassilakis
believed that there may be some give along the lines of an
"external" versus "internal" usage divide. As far as the
choice of names was concerned, only the last in the Nimitz
list was acceptable (Republic of Upper Macedonia),as Greece
believed only a geographic qualifier conveyed the true sense
that this country was only one part of a broader region that
could claim Macedonian heritage.


2. (S) Opposition parties continued to criticize government
handling of the issue, underlining the Government's limited
room for maneuver. FM Bakoyannis has been active in public
making clear that the Government will defend Greece's
interests, but refusing to go into the details of the
proposal or make any categorical statements; Bakoyannis has
also briefed leaders of Greek's political parties.
Characteristically reflecting and amplifying the debate, the
Greek media have begun another intensive round of analysis
and commentary, with influential "To Vima" printing the
Nimetz proposal in full. Yet, from our perspective, the
Greek Government appears to be more willing to stay in the
Nimetz process than we would have predicted. Embassy
continues to press all in Athens to support the Nimitz
negotiations and avoid public pronouncements on restrictions
that would further limit the opportunity to find a solution
acceptable to both sides. End Summary.

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Vassilakis -- Greece Willing to Engage
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3. (S) Vassilakis met 2/20 with Ambassador Speckhard and DCM
and said that Greece will engage on the most recent Nimetz
proposal, noting "there will be no yes and no no." FM
Bakoyannis had told Nimetz that Greece will seek greater
clarity on the "scope" of the proposal before agreeing to it,
but that Greece would engage fully as "the time to solve the
issue is now." Vassilakis identified such issues as the name
used on passports, plaques on front of Embassies, etc. as the
sort of detail to be clarified. We noted that this is
exactly what should be negotiated between the sides under
Nimetz' auspices. Surprisingly, he did not raise the
Government position expounded by FM Bakoyannis in advance to
her trip to Washington that Greece cannot accept anything
other than a "universal solution" (ref B) and suggested that
issue of "external" versus "internal" usage was more
important that what the Macedonians called themselves.


4. (S) Vassilakis said FM Bakoyannis and PM Karamanlis told
Nimetz that Greece needs a geographic qualifier in the new
name to ensure that it reflected the fact that this country
was only a part of the broader Macedonian geography and
heritage. The Ambassador and DCM emphasized to Vassilakis
that Greece should not lock itself into a limited range of
possibilities but let Nimetz try to find acceptable
compromises.


5. (S) Vassilakis emphasized that Bakoyannis is consulting
"very closely" with Karamanlis on the minutia of this issue,
including clearing Vassilakis' anodyne public statement after
the 2/19 talks. Vassilakis said he thought Dora was being
very brave and potentially committing "political suicide" but
that she was determined to push for a solution in the face of
the enormous risk to her career.


6. (S) Nimitz had invited them to come to New York for
negotiations for February 27-29 or March 3-5. Vassilakis was
certain that for the March 6 NATO Ministerial, the Foreign
Minister would not be in a position to support Macedonia's
accession. While we could still hope that a result would be
achieved by the Summit, he still believed the odds were less
than 50 percent that a solution would be found in time to
avoid a veto.

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Media Reaction

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7. (SBU) Nimetz' latest proposal, two days on, is now being
analyzed in detail in the media, dominating other news form
Kosovo, Cyprus, and beyond. Virtually all media outlets have
reported (accurately) on Nimetz' proposed five names; this
morning influential "To Vima" printed the entire Nimetz
proposal. Many commentators continue to express discomfort
with the concept of a "dual name." Some see "traps" in the
proposal, such as a suggestion that the name "Macedonia" can
only be used by Greece for commercial purposes. Most have
welcomed suggestions that Macedonian passports use the new
international name. Most commentators appear to believe that
the two sides are too far apart to come to closure prior to
the April NATO Summit, and many still call for Greece to
block a NATO invitation absent an agreement on a universal
change that includes the Macedonian constitution. However,
independent "Kathimerini" is still urging that Greeks "grow
up" and "avoid populism" in foreign policy matters. Even
left-leaning "Ethnos" suggested reserving judgment on the
Nimetz proposal in today's lead editorial.


8. (C) The chief editor of "To Vima" told us this morning
that the paper had printed the full Nimetz proposal "because
we are journalists." He added that PASOK officials had
confirmed to him that they had come out in favor of a veto
even before being briefed on the proposal "to deny Karamanlis
any electoral boost." The leak prompted chief Greek
government spokesman Roussopoulos to declare it against
Greece's interests during his regular daily briefing.

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Opposition Criticism
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9. (SBU) Seizing on public skepticism and interest, the
opposition has ratcheted up criticism of the government's
handling of the issue. Main opposition party PASOK leader
George Papandreou said that he could not accept a "dual
solution" insisting that Macedonia's constitutional name must
change or there must be a veto. Communist Party (KKE) leader
Aleka Papariga said a composite name is acceptable but must
define Macedonia "geographically, or else there may be an
issue of border changes." Seeing a chance to criticize
ruling New Democracy and former ruling party PASOK, the
Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA) leader Tsipras told
the press this situation is the result of "15 years of
erroneous tactics in Greek foreign policy." Finally,
far-right party LAOS President Karatzaferis called for Greece
to hold a referendum on any eventual agreement.


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Government Public Response
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10. (SBU) FM Bakoyannis has been front-and-center on the
issue, making various public comments to the effect that
Greece seeks a partnership with Macedonia (ref A),and that
the government will not give away Greek vital interests. She
has refused to go into the specifics of the proposal or the
Government's reaction/likely proposed changes to it. Echoing
his boss, MFA Spokesman Koumoutsakos told the press, "There
are certain points the Government can accept, some others it
cannot, and some more on which it will submit its
observations. I won't say any more."

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Comment: Exceeds Expectations
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11. (S) Given that that the Nimetz proposal specifically
rejects the concept of "universal usage," the Government,s
reaction to the proposal has been as good as we could have
hoped for. Althouh the proposal certainly contains elements
th Greeks cannot accept, they appear to have take on board
advice that they not reject the proposal out of hand and
engage with Macedonia under Nimetz' auspices. Furthermore,
in contrast to past practice, the Government appears ready to
seek such changes through negotiations rather than through
public airing of differences or a public assertion of
redlines, even in the face of typically intense media
scrutiny and opposition criticism.


12. (S) Given New Democracy's one-vote majority in the
Parliament, and the fact that many New Democracy MPs
privately share the concerns being expressed by the
opposition, the Government's room for maneuver is very
limited. PASOK, the main opposition party, is only making
matters worse by tapping public sentiment and insisting that

ATHENS 00000239 003 OF 003


a veto is the only possible course unless the Macedonian
constitution is changed to reflect a composite name. At the
same time, Dora is masterfully working within her own party
and across party lines to try to shape a debate that will
allow her to find more room for negotiations while not
shouldering all the responsibilities for a potential
compromise. End Comment.
SPECKHARD