THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT OVIEDO BUT WERE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ASUNCION 000261

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3.3 (X1,X6)
TAGS: PINR PREL SNAR PINS PGOV PA XM
SUBJECT: THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT OVIEDO BUT WERE
AFRAID TO ASK

REF: A. 1994 ASUNCION 4562

B. 1993 ASUNCION 1463

C. 1993 ASUNCION 1412

D. 1994 ASUNCION 943

E. 1995 ASUNCION 42

F. 1991 ASUNCION 4107

G. ASUNCION 239

H. 1994 ASUNCION 4573

I. 1993 ASUNCION 10

J. ASUNCION 256

K. 2005 ASUNCION 728

L. 1993 ASUNCION 3238

M. 1994 ASUNCION 381

N. 1997 ASUNCION 2128

O. 1993 ASUNCION 2633

P. 1993 ASUNCION 2900

Q. 1995 ASUNCION 1606

Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) A review of much Embassy reporting since the early
1990's reveals a fairly consistent description of General
Lino Oviedo's dominant personality traits: a strong,
messianic leader with great ambition and perhaps some mental
instability, undemocratic and violent tendencies, and a knack
for deception and manipulation. A pragmatist who views
relations with the United States as a necessary evil, Oviedo
has both assumed anti-American positions and cravingly sought
U.S. blessings. A populist, Oviedo's sympathies lie more
with the authoritarian right than with the left. Given his
years of exile and prison, the Embassy has had little or no
contact with Oviedo until recently, making it all the more
difficult to gauge his current intentions. While the
presidential race remains close, Oviedo places a fairly
consistent third in opinion polls. If elected, Oviedo would
personify "the devil you know" adage. For, unless he was
rehabilitated by his time in the Brazilian and Paraguayan
correctional systems, the Oviedo of today is the Oviedo of
yesterday. END SUMMARY.

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PERSONALITY PLUS
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2. (C) Retired General Lino Oviedo's strong leadership style
-- "a la caudillo" -- is obvious upon first meeting. He
doesn't like second place, and he doesn't like to be told
what to do. An example: When then-President Wasmosy passed a
1994 law proscribing political activity by police/military
officials, Oviedo said "a person capable of... (silencing the
military) has yet to be born in Paraguay. They want us to
shut up and put our tails between our legs... Whether they
like it or not, (the Paraguayan military) is the most firm
and iron-willed defender of this democracy." Congress voted
to condemn Oviedo's statements (ref A). His current advisors
complain that he cannot be "handled" and that he frequently
gets carried away and strays from his talking points,
surprising his own team. Oviedo began giving a toast at a
1993 birthday party and ended his speech nearly called for a
revolution (ref B).


3. (S) Past Embassy reporting indicates that Oviedo is
extraordinarily ambitious and power hungry. In 1993, Oviedo
declared that the Colorado Party would win with or without
the necessary votes (ref C). In the same year, he said "our
(Armed Forces') decision is to govern together with the
glorious and immortal Colorado party forever and ever...
like it or not, no matter who it pleases, bothers or hurts,
no matter who may protest." Following his speech, Oviedo
visited all of the military's units, calling for a coup if
the Colorados began to lose the May 9, 1993 national
elections (ref B). In 1994, this Embassy reported Oviedo's
step-by-step efforts to eliminate potential rivals and accrue
additional civilian power (ref D).


4. (S) Oviedo strongly believes himself to be a
representative of and "man of the people." He has called
himself the "chief bulwark of democracy" and its primary
defender (ref E). (NOTE: Not only does previous Embassy
reporting call Oviedo "undemocratic," but it describes him in
1991 as the major threat to democracy (ref F). END NOTE).
Oviedo said in 1995 that without him, President Wasmosy
"would fall within 90 days" (ref E). Oviedo is also known
for having a "messianic" complex, believing that he alone can
solve Paraguay's problems (ref A).

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5. (C) Oviedo has been described as crazy, delusional, and
emotional. Several military officials called him "crazy" in
1993, which is echoed throughout Embassy reporting by
civilians who came into contact with him. A former Embassy
Asuncion PolCouns said Oviedo used to throw elaborate theme
parties and forced guests to come in costume (one such party
was "set" in first century Rome). There were also reports
that Oviedo obligated his officers to release their wives
from their vows of chastity in order to "wife swap." Oviedo
is also known for his tendency to be emotional, even tearful
at times. Oviedo has also been described as being immensely
vain (ref F),allegedly having plastic surgery (including
hair plugs) prior to launching his 2008 presidential
campaign.


6. (C) Oviedo is known for his violent tendencies (ref G,
which discusses his role in the Argana assassination and
several coup attempts) and for using a combination of charm
and threats to get what he wants. He has frequently engaged
in physical intimidation of his opponents and the press. An
example: A pro-President Wasmosy daily newspaper did a spoof
story on Paraguay's April Fools' Day equivalent in 1994. The
story said Wasmosy had ordered Oviedo into retirement and
that Oviedo had commenced a hunger strike. Shortly after the
newspapers hit the streets, someone fired 13 bullets through
the newspaper's front window. While no one was injured, the
incident demonstrated Oviedo's violent streak (and lack of
sense of humor) (ref H). Oviedo called the press an
"instrument for confusion" and threatened press moguls with
exposure of their financial and sexual sins if they sullied
his reputation in 1991 (ref F). He uses similar tactics with
his own campaign staff, reportedly yelling at them and
calling them names in order to motivate them to work harder.
His campaign manager told Pol/Econ Chief that Oviedo's
methods are, in fact, effective: His people respond.


7. (S) This Embassy has repeatedly reported that Oviedo is a
liar (refs F and I are only two examples) and an expert in
manipulation. Throughout the early 1990's, leading up to his
attempted 1996 coup, Oviedo assured this Embassy of his
democratic leanings and denied intentions to carry out a
coup. Just this week, Oviedo orchestrated news stories
implying he had been invited urgently to Washington on the
eve of the elections in an attempt to associate himself with
us. After allowing the issue to be bandied about in the
press for a day, Oviedo publicly stated that he would not
travel to the United States because he is needed in Paraguay
for the last leg of his campaign (ref J)(as opposed to the
real reason he won't be making that trip -- his lack of a
visa). Instead, he promised to travel to DC immediately
after his election to renegotiate Paraguay's (nonexistent)
U.S. debt.

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PRAGMATIC VIEWS OF THE UNITED STATES
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8. (C) Oviedo is a pragmatist who views relations with the
United States as a necessary evil. Oviedo reiterated in 2005
his plans to become Paraguay's president and recognized that
Paraguay will need U.S. support to be successful (ref K). A
former PolCouns here predicted that Oviedo, as president,
would be prepared to do things for the United States in
exchange for our tolerance of him (as the USG put up with
Paraguayan dictator Stroessner because he took our side in
the Cold War). The former PolCouns warned that Oviedo would
find something we want (an ally against Venezuela, perhaps)
and would seek to become indispensable to us in that regard
in order to further his own long-term interests (restoring
his good name as a dictator-turned-democrat).


9. (C) Oviedo has taken several anti-U.S. stands in the past.
In 1993, he publicly stated that only Japan and Germany
provided substantial assistance to Paraguay, and that if the
United States really wanted to help, it should provide
low-interest loans on concessionary terms (ref L). Oviedo
opposed U.S. military exercises in Paraguay in 1994 because
he didn't want the United States to outshine his own efforts
and because he worried that the United States would pursue
something other than its stated military mission (ref M). In
1997, Oviedo was behind the GOP's decision to cancel a
U.S.-Paraguayan military cooperation agreement, which the GOP
later rescinded so the agreement could go forward (ref N).
Oviedo has also expressed hostility toward the DEA. (NOTE:
The feeling is mutual. END NOTE). In 1993, he told the
Argentines that the United States was responsible for their
loss of the Falklands; he reportedly said so in order to
curry Argentine support for a Mercosur multinational force to

ASUNCION 00000261 003 OF 004


protect the Southern Cone instead of depending on the United
States for defense (ref O). Oviedo was hostile to Ambassador
Maura Harty (1997-1999),and once threatened to have
Ambassador Jon Glassman (1991-1994) expelled from Paraguay
for interference in internal affairs (ref P).


10. (C) While Oviedo purports to be a populist, his
sympathies lie more with the authoritarian right than with
the revolutionary left. In a November 1 interview with
leading daily ABC Color, Oviedo was asked who he would model
his government after. He responded "neither the right nor
the left nor the center, but progress. Neither Chavez nor
Evo Morales like some say, but a government that puts the
Paraguayan people first, and that responds to their needs."
Since that time, his public discourse and campaign ads have
clearly set him at sharp odds with the current leaders of
Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador. Oviedo uses a seemingly
endless supply of energy to campaign for Paraguay's poor
masses, visiting as many small towns in his campaign for
civilian president as he visited remote military bases as a
general. He convinces the poor, in their own Guarani, that he
will fight for them as president. And they believe him.


11. (C) For long stretches of time, the Embassy has had
little or no contact with Oviedo, making it all the more
difficult to understand his current intentions. Embassy
officials cut off contact with Oviedo in 1997 following his
coup attempt, and denied his visa application based on the
terrorist activities ineligibility in January of the same
year (ref N). He spent much of the past decade in exile or
prison. Since his release from Paraguayan military prison in
September 2007, Oviedo has been eager to establish contact
with the Embassy, sending messages via various interlocutors
expressing his interest in meetings. Pol/Econ Chief met
privately with him November 1; the Ambassador and DCM
privately met with him February 14. We have had more
frequent contact with UNACE candidates for the Senate and
Lower House, as well as with Oviedo's key advisors.

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OTHER BIO NOTES
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12. (C) Lino Oviedo was born September 23, 1943. His
hometown, Juan de Mena, is approximately three hours
northeast of Asuncion in the Cordillera department. Oviedo's
father fought in the Chaco War (1932-1935) and the 1947 Civil
War, but later bought and sold cattle for a living. His
mother was a school teacher. Lino Oviedo was the fourth of
his parents' five children (he has two brothers and two
sisters). Oviedo's mother passed away in 1993; his father
was reportedly in ill health in 1995, and if still living,
would now be around 90 years of age (ref Q). Oviedo is
married to Argentine Raquel Marin and has six children.


13. (C) While Oviedo has claimed that his only accumulated
wealth relates to a few small factories his father left him,
the Embassy did not believe his statements (ref F). He is
reputed to have a fortune which "remains intact." There are
many allegations that much of his wealth was accumulated
during his time as President Rodriguez' Chief of Staff - when
Rodriguez served as protector for narcotics traffickers who
used Paraguay as a base of international operations. Oviedo
publicly purports to despise wealth, even campaigning in
small towns with his pants pockets turned inside out.

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COMMENT: THE DEVIL YOU KNOW
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14. (C) While the race remains close, Oviedo places a fairly
consistent third in opinion polls, making him the long shot
bet on April 20. Oviedo is the only true politician in this
race. He is tireless on the campaign trail, where he is
immensely popular with Paraguay's rural poor. If elected,
Oviedo would personify "the devil you know" adage. For all
of his negative characteristics (so many that they are
difficult to catalog),he would likely be committed to
reforming Paraguay to root out corruption and attract foreign
investment. He would seek U.S. support for personal,
redemptive reasons, and would continue to confront Chavez, as
long as doing so remained in his interest. The bottom line?
Tigers don't change their stripes. Unless Oviedo was
rehabilitated by the Brazilian and Paraguayan correctional
systems (highly unlikely),the Oviedo of today is the Oviedo
of yesterday. END COMMENT.

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CASON