KAZAKHSTAN: PHONE CONVERSATIONS RELEASED BY ALIYEV RAISE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 002071

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PHONE CONVERSATIONS RELEASED BY ALIYEV RAISE
SUSPICIONS ABOUT OPPOSITION LEADER TUYAKBAY


1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY: President Nazarbayev's ex-son-in-law, Rakhat
Aliyev, posted on the Internet recordings of alleged phone
conversations involving former Presidential Administration Chief
Adylbek Dzhaksybekov, former National Security Committee (KNB) Chief
Nartay Dutbayev, and opposition National Social Democratic Party
(OSDP) leader Zharmakhan Tuyakbay. If authentic, the conversations,
which appear to date from 2006-07, provide evidence that Tuyakbay
was closely cooperating with the authorities, actively seeking
meetings with Nazarbayev, and receiving financial support from the
government. Responding to the release of the recordings, Tuyakbay
did not deny that he sought meetings with Nazarbayev; however, he
argued that any party work requires dealing with the authorities,
and maintained that OSDP is financed solely by private sources.
While Azat party leader Bulat Abilov rose to Tuyakbay's defense in a
newspaper interview, leading opposition journalist Sergei Duvanov
told us that the recordings confirmed his own suspicions that
Tuyakbay is a "government spy in the opposition camp." END SUMMARY.


OPPOSITION LEADER TUYAKBAY ON GOVERNMENT'S PAYROLL? ...


3. (SBU) On or about October 1, President Nazarbayev's
ex-son-in-law, Rakhat Aliyev, posted on his Internet website
(kaztoday.livejournal.com) recordings of alleged telephone
conversations involving former Presidential Administration Chief
Adylbek Dzhaksybekov, former KNB Chief Nartay Dutbayev, and
opposition National Social Democratic Party (OSDP) leader Zharmakhan
Tuyakbay. The recordings were accompanied by transcripts of the
conversations. Both the recordings and transcripts have since been
removed from the website, but we obtained the transcripts for
review. The conversations appear to have taken place during 2006-07
and, if authentic, indicate that Tuyakbay, who was the opposition's
united presidential candidate in the 2005 elections, was closely
cooperating with the government, actively seeking meetings with
President Nazarabyev, and was receiving financing from the
government.


4. (SBU) In the transcript of the first conversation, Zhaksybekov
and Dutbayev discuss Tuyakbay's attempts to meet with President
Nazarbayev. Zhaksybekov tells Dutbayev that Tuyakbay tried to get a
meeting with the "boss" by going through the chief of Presidential
Security. Zhaksybekov, who appears to have heard about the request
from Nazarbayev himself, berates Dutbayev for letting his "charge"
go directly to Nazarbayev. "We have to know the issues so we can
prepare the boss," he says. Dutbayev says that Tuyakbay wants to
talk about registration of his party, to which Zhaksybekov responds
that Justice Minister Baliyeva is already working on speeding up the
process. Dutbayev says that Tuyakbay told him he has an
"arrangement" with "the boss" about regular meetings, and goes on to
complain to Dzhaksybekov that he is "sick and tired" of Tuyakbay's
daily phone calls. Zhaksybekov promises to follow up on the party
registration issue, but asks Dutbayev to keep a closer eye on
Tuyakbay.


5. (SBU) The two following conversations appear to be between
Dutbayev and Tuyakbay, in which the two set up a meeting that also
involves a third, unidentified person. In a subsequent
conversation, Dutbayev reports back to Zhaksybekov that the meeting
went well and that a certain Dzhumakarov -- presumably the
unidentified third party -- "brought the cash." Ostensibly talking
about Tuyakbay, Dutbayev says "he is in a good mood, but complains
that the money is not enough." Zhaksybekov retorts that nobody ever
has enough. In the transcript of the final conversation,
Zhaksybekov tells Dutbayev that his "charge" tried to see "the boss"
again, but that he recommended against the meeting since "he hasn't
proven himself yet." Zhaksybekov says he will meet "this person" in
Almaty to discuss the way forward, but goes on to say that "he'll
likely only want to talk about money."


ASTANA 00002071 002 OF 002


... OR SIMPLY A SMEAR CAMPAIGN?


6. (U) In an October 3 interview to the KazTag news agency, Tuyakbay
described the recordings as "part of a plan aimed at discrediting me
and our party." He did not deny that he sought meetings with
President Nazarbayev. "Any party activity inevitably involves
contact with various people, including those in power," he said.
"For the sake of the party and general democratic principles, I am
continuing this work even now, and it is in defense of this that I
initiated a request for a meeting with the President at the
beginning of 2007." Asked about his receiving financing from the
government, Tuyakbay replied that the transcripts are aimed
specifically at "casting doubts on the independent financing of our
party." He maintained that OSDP is backed by several private
individuals "who do not belong to the power hierarchy," but whose
names cannot be revealed because of the "situation we have in
Kazakhstan." "I can assure anybody in the government who believes
they've tamed our party that their attempts have failed," contended
Tuyakbay.

ABILOV RISES TO TUYAKBAY'S DEFENSE ...


7. (U) Opposition Azat party head Bulat Abilov -- a sometime
partner, sometime rival of Tuyakbay's -- rose to Tuyakbay's defense
in an October 10 interview in "Delovaya Nedelya" newspaper. He
categorically denied that Tuyakbay is controlled by the government.
Abilov admitted the authenticity of a recording of a conversation
between himself and Dzhaksybekov -- which was also posted on
Aliyev's website but has since been removed. In that conversation,
Abilov asked for a meeting for himself and two other leaders of Azat
-- known then as True Ak Zhol -- with Dzhaksybekov in order to
discuss an unnamed "political issue." Dzhaksybekov agreed, but
insisted that the meeting be in his office, rather than on "neutral
ground," as Abilov requested. Abilov explained to "Delovaya
Nedelya" that his party actually had several meetings with
Zhaksybekov in 2007. According to Abilov, in one instance, they
requested the Presidential Administration's permission to hold a
rally in Almaty to mark the one-year anniversary of the
assassination of opposition leader Altynbek Sarsenbayev, and in
another instance, they sought guarantees that the August 2007
parliamentary elections would be fair.

... BUT DUVANOV'S SUSPICIONS ARE CONFIRMED


8. (SBU) During an October 10 meeting in Almaty, leading opposition
journalist Sergei Duvanov told us that the telephone conversations
had completely discredited Tuyakbay -- and confirmed his own
suspicions, dating back several years, that Tuyakbay is a
"government spy in the opposition camp." Duvanov had listened to
the actual recordings on-line and said he had no doubt that they
were authentic, with Dzhaksybekov clearly identifiable by his
distinctive voice and style.


9. (SBU) COMMENT: It is no secret that most of Kazakhstan's
opposition leaders maintain extensive contacts with the government
and on occasion meet with President Nazarbayev. Thus, the real
question raised by the recorded conversations is whether Tuyakbay
has been on the government payroll. The contents of the recordings,
if authentic, are in any event not fully conclusive on this issue.
In releasing the recordings, Rakhat Aliyev was likely aiming to
discredit Nazarbayev for manipulating the political process, rather
than trying to bring down Tuyakbay. END COMMENT.

HOAGLAND