Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ASTANA1698
2008-09-08 08:02:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Astana
Cable title:  

KAZAKHSTAN B1/B2 VALIDATION STUDIES

Tags:  CVIS KFRD KZ 
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VZCZCXYZ0010
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTA #1698 2520802
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 080802Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY ASTANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3217
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 2180
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 0015
RUEHFT/AMCONSUL FRANKFURT 6876
UNCLAS ASTANA 001698 

UNCLAS ASTANA 000748

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR CA/FPP: EHOLMES, CA/VO/F/P: MEARL, DS/CR/VG
DEPT ALSO PASS TO KCC
POSTS FOR FRAUD PREVENTION MANAGERS
FRANKFURT FOR RCOS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CVIS KFRD KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN B1/B2 VALIDATION STUDIES

UNCLAS ASTANA 001698

UNCLAS ASTANA 000748

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR CA/FPP: EHOLMES, CA/VO/F/P: MEARL, DS/CR/VG
DEPT ALSO PASS TO KCC
POSTS FOR FRAUD PREVENTION MANAGERS
FRANKFURT FOR RCOS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CVIS KFRD KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN B1/B2 VALIDATION STUDIES


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Embassy Astana and Embassy Branch Office Almaty
conducted validation studies of B1/B2 visa issuances. By combining
results from DHS's Arrival Departure Information System (ADIS) and
follow-up telephone calls, posts examined samples of B1/B2 issuances
from August 1, 2007 - January 31, 2008 and discovered that a
surprisingly small percentage of applicants overstayed or adjusted
status; for Astana, the rate was 0.9%, and for Almaty the rate was
1.6%. END SUMMARY.

--------------
The Validation Study
--------------


2. (SBU) Kazakhstan does not have consular districts to formally
divide the NIV workload between Astana and Almaty, however the
composition and geographic source of the NIV workload is different.
B1/B2 applicants comprise only about 29% of Astana's annual NIV
workload, but 56% of Almaty's. The major difference in composition
comes from Summer Work and Travel; almost 40% of Astana's workload
is from this program. Astana is located more than 1000 kilometers
north of Almaty, a fact which is reflected in the geographic source
of the applicants. Although applicants can go to either Almaty or
Astana, as a practical matter virtually all residents of northern
Kazakhstan go to Astana, and residents of southern Kazakhstan go to
Almaty.


3. (SBU) Astana issued 639 B1/B2 visas from August 1, 2007 to
January 31, 2008. Almaty issued 2,245 B1/B2 visas in the same time
period. Samples were randomly chosen using Excel. Utilizing the
expectation of a 7% rate of non-returning travelers derived from a
past validation study, we chose sample sizes to be 95% confident of
a deviation of +/- 2%; that is, to be 95% confident that the true
non-return rate is between 5% and 9%. For Astana, this calculation
implied a sample size of 316; we chose 320 visa recipients - exactly
half the sample - as a round number. For Almaty, the calculation
called for a sample size of 489; we chose 500 visa recipients as a
round number. Both Almaty and Astana checked arrival and departure
status using ADIS and/or phone calls. Of the 320 individuals
checked in Astana, 3 did not return, a rate of 0.9%. Of the 500
individuals checked in Almaty, 8 did not return, a rate of 1.6%.
For Astana, due to the combination of an extremely low non-return
rate and a relatively large sample size, a meaningful two-sided
confidence interval cannot be constructed. However, it is possible
to say we are 95% confident the true non-return rate is not higher
than 1.6%. For Almaty, we are 95% confident the population
non-return rate is between 0.6% and 2.6%. As the confidence
intervals for the two posts have a large amount of overlap, the
deviation in the non-return rates between the two posts is not
statistically significant.


4. (SBU) Refusal rates in Kazakhstan are not particularly high: for
the sample period, Astana and Almaty had virtually identical
non-adjusted refusal rates for B1/B2 applicants - 13.1% and 13.5%,
respectively. Most refusals are concentrated in travelers having a
sole B2 purpose. Reflective of the strength of Kazakhstan's economy
recently (until the recent worldwide "credit crunch", the economy
had been growing at about 9% a year for the past 5 years),business
applicants are for the most part very strong. Common business
applicants include employees of oil and oil services companies (both
local and US-based),employees of local and international financial
and services firms, and employees of large agricultural and mining
concerns.


5. (SBU) Post was surprised and pleased by the non-return rate.
Little insight can be gathered about trends, as the few visa
recipients that did not return appear to be simply random
occurrences. Of the eleven total non-returns, five legally changed
status or extended their stays in the U.S. Six provided what
appears to be intentionally misleading information in their
applications. While the number of non-returns is too low to indicate
trends, it does support post's long-held view of Kazakhstan as a low
fraud environment.