USOSCE DCM SCOTT DISCUSSES MADRID COMMITMENTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 001288

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SOCI PREL ECON KZ

SUBJECT: USOSCE DCM SCOTT DISCUSSES MADRID COMMITMENTS


1. SUMMARY: During his June 26-30 trip to Kazakhstan, USOSCE DCM
Kyle Scott met with government officials and opposition and civil
society leaders to discuss Kazakhstan's Madrid commitments. In
meetings held after President Nazarbayev's June 29 speech,
government officials strove to reassure DCM Scott that the promised
legislation on elections, political parties, and media will be ready
by the end of the year. OSCE Center in Astana also expressed
cautious optimism that the President's speech will translate into
direct action from the government. Civil society leaders are less
optimistic that the new legislation will go beyond "cosmetic
changes." One leading activist said democratic transition will come
only after the ruling elite negotiate full protection for its
economic assets. The push to pass the new religion law seems to
have slowed, although civil society activists and the OSCE are still
watching the legislation closely. END SUMMARY.


2. USOSCE DCM Kyle Scott traveled to Kazakhstan June 26 - 30 to
attend the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly (PA) as well as to gather
information on Kazakhstan's progress on the Madrid commitments. He
spent two days in Almaty, where he met with leaders of civil
society, religious groups, independent media, and opposition
parties, and several days in Astana, where one day was devoted to
bilateral meetings with the government.

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GOVERNMENT PROMISES PROGRESS ON MADRID...
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3. DCM Scott's bilateral meetings came directly on the heels of
President Nazarbayev's speech at the OSCE PA in which he publicly
discussed the Madrid commitments. As could be expected, the
government was eager to reassure us that the promised legislative
changes will be ready before the end of the year. The President's
Internal Policy Director Erlan Karin said that the draft laws on
election, political parties, and media were already in the works.
He stressed that while the government bureaucracy was lagging, the
political will was there. According to Karin, the President's
speech was a sign of the shift of priorities within the government.
While it was previously "focused on stability," its new focus is
"stability of development." "Madrid is just the beginning," said
Karin.


4. Similar assurances were made by the Culture and Information
Minister Mukhtar Kul-Mukhammed and Central Election Commission (CEC)
Chairman Kuandyk Turgankulov. Kul-Mukhammed said the draft
legislation on media should go to the Mazhelis in September, and
Turgankulov expects the new election law to be ready by December.
In answer to DCM Scott's question on Nazarbayev's promise of "at
least a two party Parliament," Turgankolov said the new law will
likely drop the Mazhelis threshold requirement for the
second-highest winner to assure multi-party representation.


5. In DCM Scott's meeting with the OSCE Center in Astana, Head of
Center Ambassador Keltchewsky and Deputy Head Jeannette Kloetzer
both expressed cautious optimism about Kazakhstan's progress. "The
trend is positive," said Kloetzer. She noted that the officials who
were previously reluctant to "cross the line" now had the
President's official sanction to move forward. Keltchewsky added
that the speech presented a unique opportunity to gain momentum on
the Madrid commitments. Kloetzer and Keltchewsky agreed with DCM
Scott that the Centre faces an important job of unitizing this
opportunity to make sure the new legislation truly upholds the
spirit of OSCE principles.

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... BUT CIVIL SOCIETY SEES LITTLE MOVEMENT
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6. During meetings held in Almaty before Nazarbayev's speech,
opposition party leaders shared a predictably less optimistic view
of Kazakhstan's political scene. CPK's Serikbolsyn Abdildin derided
the one-party Mazhelis as a corrupt institution that simply
rubber-stamps the government's initiatives. Azat's Tulegen Zhukeyev
added that the opposition parties are kept artificially weak by the
"cynical fixing of elections," something only pressure from "the
West" can alleviate. NSDP's Amirzhan Kosanov struck a more
optimistic note, saying that public demand that Kazakhstan fulfill
its Madrid commitments should bring about positive changes. All
agreed that the new law on political parties will be ready on
schedule, but worried that it will only include "cosmetic changes."



7. Representatives of the independent press were equally
pessimistic on the new law on the media. At a round-table on media
freedom, watchdog NGO Adil Soz's Tamara Kaleyeva said that the
proposals under consideration from the government would do little to
change the current restrictive environment. The biggest issues --
strict registration requirements for print media and criminal
penalties for libel -- are not being addressed, she said.
Inkar.info's journalist Sergey Duvanov and Tarzhargan Weekly's

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editor Taszhargan Bapi noted that the government's use of libel laws
was responsible for much of the self-censorship in print media and
television. On the question of freedom of the internet, Duvanov
said that opposition news websites were still being periodically
blocked.


8. Discussing the law of elections, Republican Network of
Independent Monitors' (RNIM) Taskyn Rakhimbekova said she doesn't
expect much from new legislation. Rakhimbekova's NGO monitored 25%
of the polls during the last elections, and in her opinion, count
irregularities were more the result of overzealousness on the part
of local akims than defects in the election law. The akims are
directly appointed and do not want to jeopardize their job security,
she said. While a new law on elections would be progress,
Rakhimbekova does not believe it would not bring substantial
changes.


9. Kazakhstan Bureau for Human Rights' Yevgeniy Zhovtis gave a more
nuanced view of the situation. Zhovtis told DCM Scott that while he
has no doubts that the government will pass the necessary
legislation before the end of the year, he does not expect it to
bring any seismic shifts to the political scene. In his opinion,
true political reform will not take place until the ruling elite can
successfully negotiate full protection for its economic assets.
"How many countries have billionaires on the Presidential staff?" he
asked, referring to Presidential Administrator Bulat Utemuratov, who
recently made the Forbes' 2008 World's Richest People list.
Many in Nazarbaev's circle stand to loose their fortunes if removed
from power, explained Zhovtis, and are understandably reluctant to
introduce any major changes to the current order. It is his belief
that true democratic reform will be a slow process involving careful
negotiations within the ruling circle. (Comment: In fact, the
appearance of Utemuratov and other Kazakhstanis on the Forbes list
demonstrates progress toward transparency and legalization of
assets, either through IPOs that converted assets into publicly
traded shares or, as was the case with Utemuratov sale of assets, to
major western companies that have conducted due diligence on their
purchase. The result brings these riches out of the shadow somewhat
reduces the long-term vulnerability of their owners. End comment.)


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PROMISING SIGNS ON RELIGION LEGISLATION
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10. Along with the Madrid commitments, the draft religion
legislation was a frequent topic of DCM Scott's conversations.
During a meeting with Helsinki Committee's Ninel Fokina and
representatives of Jehovah's Witnesses and Hare Krishnas, Fokina
said that while the newest version of the law is an improvement over
the original, it still represents "significant threat to religious
freedom."
OSCE Almaty Liaison Office's Human Dimension Officer Eugenia Benigni
told DCM Scott that OSCE/ODIHR continues to watch the legislation
closely. Her office organized several meetings between a visiting
religious freedom expert from ODIHR and the MFA and Committee on
Religious Affairs. She said that the OSCE also plans to do training
sessions on religious freedom for government officials in
mid-September. (Note: September is when the Mazhelis will likely
pick up the legislation after its summer holiday. End Note.) OSCE
Astana Centre's Kloetzer noted that the drive to pass the law has
slowed, something she ascribes to the successful intervention from
the NGOs and international community. President Administration's
Karin cautiously let us know that the support for the law was
lessening. Careful to underline that the final decision will come
from the Mazhelis, he said that the Administration had "several
conversations with [Mazhelis] members" on potential issues with the
new legislation. According to Karin, Kazakhstan's "two main
religious groups" -- presumably Muslims and Orthodox Christians --
were also beginning to have second thoughts about the law.


11. COMMENT: It is clear that the President's speech gave the
government a green light on the Madrid commitments. The government
will likely produce the "Madrid" legislation before the end of the
year. Whether it will be the "new beginning" that Karin promises,
or the "cosmetic changes" that civil society predicts, remains to be
seen.

DCM Scott did not have a chance to clear this cable.

ORDWAY