SHEIK HASSAN DAHIR AWEYS' OPTIONS LIMITED BY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000609

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E,
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2018
TAGS: PREL PINS ASEC SO ER
SUBJECT: SHEIK HASSAN DAHIR AWEYS' OPTIONS LIMITED BY
TRAVEL BAN

REF: ASMARA 542

Classified By: CDA Melinda C. Tabler-Stone for Reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: A well-placed Somali contact said UN-imposed
travel restictions on Sheik Aweys limit his ability to play a
role in Somali national reconciliation, and non-Islamist
hardline ARS members believe Aweys is the key to peace in
Somalia and neutralizing al-Shabaab. The Eritrean government
tightly controls the hardline Alliance for the Reliberation
of Somalia (ARS) leadership in Asmara. Most hardline ARS
members may soon leave Asmara and return to Somalia. END
SUMMARY.

COULD AWEYS BECOME A CONSTRUCTIVE PARTNER IN SOMALIA?
-------------- --------------

2. (C) A hardline ARS member well-known to the Embassy
(reftel) said that non-Islamist members of the hardline ARS
believe that Aweys' ability to engage constructively in
Somalia's future is greatly limited by his listing as a
terrorist under UN Resolution 1267. The contact said Aweys
would leave Eritrea "tomorrow," but he can't due to travel
restrictions associated with 1267. Because these
restrictions prevent Aweys from departing Eritrea by
commercial flights, the contact believes Aweys would return
to Somalia by traveling overland. His route would likely cut
through Eritrea's and Ethiopia's Afar regions, bypassing
Djibouti, and entering Somalia through Somaliland.

AWEYS THE NATIONALIST
--------------

3. (C) The contact and other ARS hardliners believe Aweys is
the key to uniting Somalia's various nationalistic factions
(including the warlords) and marginalizing al-Shabaab.
Because Aweys is highly regarded in the Hawiye clan, the
contact believes Aweys' participation in a national
reconciliation process would peel away most of al-Shabaab's
Hawiye fighters and greatly weaken the organization.


4. (C) The contact also said that Aweys is a nationalist
first, and has stated specifically that he is not interested
in al-Qaeda's vision of a multi-national caliphate. He added
that although Aweys favors implementing some aspects of
Sharia law in Somalia, it is only as an expression of
Somalia's Islamic culture, and that Aweys favors popular
elections.

AWEYS' ACTIVITIES CONTROLLED BY THE ERITREANS
--------------

5. (C) According to the contact, the Eritrean government
requires all high-level ARS members (including Aweys) to
clear any meetings with foreigners. The Eritrean government
also provides talking points before meetings, and debriefs
the meeting participants afterward. The contact said
Eritrean national security agents questioned him at length
regarding his dealings with Emboffs, and threatened him with
expulsion from Eritrea if he continued.

AL-TURKI CLAIMS AWEYS IS NOT A REAL MUSLIM
--------------

6. (C) The contact told Emboff of reports from Somalia that
Sheik Hassan (Al-Turki) recently told al-Shabaab members that
Aweys is no longer a "real Muslim," but only a nationalist.
Pamphlets stating this were supposedly distributed in Kismayo
some time last week.

MOST ARS MEMBERS MAY SOON LEAVE ERITREA
--------------

7. (C) The contact also told Emboff that a top "lieutenant"
from Somalia reportedly met with the hardline ARS leadership
on 12/30 to discuss strategy. One item discussed was to have
nearly all hardline ARS members in Eritrea to return to
Somalia. Only three or four, including Aweys, would remain
in Eritrea.


8. (C) COMMENT: The contact corroborated the Embassy's
belief that the GSE exercises a high degree of control over
the hardline ARS. ARS press statements are nearly identical
to those from the Eritrean MFA. The GSE's control over the
activities of Aweys while he resides in Asmara is

ASMARA 00000609 002 OF 002


troublesome, given his ability to influence events in Somalia
for good or ill, but from a post security standpoint it is
desirable. END COMMENT.
MCMULLEN