ERITREA'S CORRUPT AND DIVIDED MILITARY

S E C R E T ASMARA 000597

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E,
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2018
TAGS: MOPS PGOV MCAP ASEC ER
SUBJECT: ERITREA'S CORRUPT AND DIVIDED MILITARY

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for Reason 1.4 (d)


1. (S) SUMMARY: The Eritrean military's five regional
commanders are bitter rivals and would actively contest a
coup attempt by any of the others, according to a
knowledgeable contact. Isaias personally selects the
regional commanders' deputies to act as spies, and rotates
them frequently. Lower and middle ranked officers are
frustrated by lack of promotions. Eritrea's officer corps,
dating from Eritrea's war of independence, will soon be
replaced by conscripts with less loyalty to the Isaias
regime. END SUMMARY.

PERSONAL RIVALRIES AMONG TOP MILITARY COMMANDERS
-------------- ---

2. (S) A non-Eritrean contact with extensive knowledge and
experience in Eritrea dating back to the struggle told Emboff
that the Eritrean Defense Force's (EDF) five regional
military commanders personally hate each other and are bitter
rivals. He added, however, that they are collectively
dissatisfied with the Isaias regime, but continue propping it
up for two reasons. First, they are profiting handsomely
from smuggling food, fuel, and other consumer goods into
Eritrea, a practice Isaias allows to buy the generals'
loyalty. Second, these personal rivalries run so deep that
any single general attempting to overthrow Isaias would be
immediately contested by the other four, in an effort save
their positions, fortunes, and possibly their lives. The
contact believes any moves by the generals must, therefore,
be coordinated among several of them to have any chance of
success.

DEPUTIES/SPIES
--------------

3. (C) The contact also said that Isaias rotates a group of
brigadier generals serving as deputies among each of the
regional commanders. These deputies serve as Isaias' spies,
and are frequently rotated to prevent collusion with the
regional commanders. In addition, EDF divisions are
frequently rotated among the regional commanders to combat
the formation of loyalty between soldiers and commanders.

NON-EXISTENT PROMOTION OPPORTUNITIES AND ITS CONSEQUENCES
-------------- --------------

4. (C) There is reportedly growing dissatisfaction among the
EDF's officer corps due to lack of promotion opportunities.
The contact said that the GSE's force retention policies have
clogged the higher ranks of the Eritrean military, leaving
many resentful officers in their forties and fifties as
captains and majors for ten or more years.


5. (C) In addition, the EDF's drafting of an officer corps (a
practice started in 2001) could, according to the contact,
spark a lower-level military rebellion in coming years if
Eritrea continues fielding a large conscript army. Many of
the current battalion (major/colonel) and brigade commanders
(colonel/brigadier general) are hold-overs from "the
struggle," and are nearing retirement age. The EDF will soon
be forced to replace these former fighters with drafted
officers who have no direct connection to the liberation war.
The contact added that these officers will not be of high
enough rank to enjoy the financial benefits of smuggling,
making them potentially even more inclined to foment a coup
than their predecessors.


6. (S) COMMENT: Post contacts have speculated that the
regional commanders growing dissatisfaction with the Isaias
regime could lead one of them to orchestrate a coup. The
contact's assessment of the need for coordination of a plot
among the commanders, if true, reduces this likelihood. For
this coordination among rivals to take place, the generals
would likely need a common complaint, such as Isaias
interfering with their smuggling operations. END COMMENT.
MCMULLEN