VIEWS OF AN ERITREAN OPPOSITION LEADER

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000370

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL ER
SUBJECT: VIEWS OF AN ERITREAN OPPOSITION LEADER

REF: ASMARA 345

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4 (d)


1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: The two senior Eritrean opposition
figures in Asmara are both wealthy businessmen, one of whom
is a prominent ex-fighter and the husband of a cabinet
minister. Both are sympathetic to the Addis Ababa-based
Eritrean Democratic Alliance (EDA). In their view, the
regime is united by patriotism, communist ideology, fear, and
personal greed. Ex-fighters now in the bureaucracy, military
personnel, and many poor people are reportedly fed up with
Isaias' despotic rule, but are fearful of being the first to
raise a voice in opposition. Economic hardships have driven
poor families almost to the breaking point; two months of
severe electricity cuts could spur many people to openly
oppose the status quo. Muslim Eritreans, incited by foreign
Islamists, feel particularly oppressed. A leading
oppositionist urges the USG to provide financial and
technical support to Television Dehai ("Message"),the EDA
television program beamed into Eritrea on satellite TV. End
Summary.


2. (S/NF) WEAK OPPOSITION
--------------

The ambassador met July 21 with an Eritrean dual-national
businessman who is resident in Asmara five months a year. He
spoke openly of his opposition to Isaias and his affiliation
with the EDA. He said the other senior civilian opposition
figure owns a marble factory and is a respected ex-fighter.
("Ex-fighters" are veterans of the 30-year independence war
and are accorded special status by the regime and society.)
The other leader is married to a hard-line cabinet minister,
although the marriage is apparently not a close one. The
businessman, the main source of reftel, said the EDA is
marked by bickering, particularly between factions of the
former, mostly Muslim, Eritrean Liberation Front and the
others. He said EDA structures and activities inside Asmara
are practically nonexistent.


3. (C) WHAT HOLDS THE REGIME TOGETHER?
--------------

Patriotism, communism, fear, and greed bind the regime's top
leaders, the businessman reported. All Eritreans, including
the regime's leaders, love their country and have made huge
personal sacrifices to achieve and maintain its independence,
he said. Accordingly, he continued, most Eritreans would
bear any price to keep their country from being taken over
again by Ethiopia. Isaias and key officials supposedly
remain dedicated to a version of communism exemplified by
Enver Hoxa's Albania or the Maoism of the 1960s. Isaias is
said to be thin-skinned and quick to take umbrage at real or
perceived slights, with often severe consequences for those
suspected of being disloyal. Despite the regime's strong
egalitarianism, it provides army, government, and party
officials expropriated houses and business opportunities.
Colonels and above, he said, are given nationalized houses,
but the recipients cannot sell or bequeath the property to
anyone. Regime insiders and their families can thus enjoy a
lifestyle otherwise unsupportable by their meager official
salaries*but only so long as they remain in Isaias' good
graces.


4. (C) SQUEAKING PIPS
--------------

Most Eritrean families are barely making ends meet, as nearly
all young adults are in the army or doing open-ended National
Service for starvation wages. Fuel for cooking and
transportation remains in critically short supply and
candles, bread, sugar, and other staples are scarce.
Electricity is surprisingly dependable; the businessman said
that prolonged electric cuts (such as those announced June 26
but later rescinded) could prove to be the last straw for
many long-suffering Eritreans.


5. (S) DEFENDING THE VISION OF 1993

ASMARA 00000370 002 OF 002


--------------

The businessman met recently with disgruntled officials who
felt the ideals and aspirations Eritreans held at
independence (i.e., hope for a prosperous and peaceful
democracy) have been undermined by Isaias. Some military
officers, prominent ex-fighters, and a number of government
officials are reportedly worried that Isaias is so weakening
the country that the most important gains since 1993,
national unity and independence, are jeopardized. The
age-old split between Christian highlanders and Muslim
lowlanders could threaten national unity, according to these
concerned officials, as the regime's particularly
heavy-handed treatment of Muslims has enhanced the appeal of
radical Islamists. Isaias' meddling in regional conflicts
could cause Ethiopia to lower the boom on Eritrea, with
unpredictable consequences for national unity and
independence, he added.


6. (S) WHAT CAN THE USG DO TO HELP?
--------------

The USG, particularly the State Department, is so despised by
the regime that any high-profile attempt to support human
rights and democracy inside Eritrea will be strongly opposed
by the regime, according to this source. He suggested that
the U.S. seek ways to improve the "disappointing" opposition
Television Dehai ("Message"). Television Dehai is on between
10:00 and 10:30 p.m. four nights per week on the Ethiopian
channel of ArabSat satellite television. While the
opposition programming has improved a bit since its dismal
launch, it still is very amateurish and not nearly as
influential or widely viewed as was hoped, the businessman
stated.


7. (S/NF) COMMENT: The opposition businessmen and their
circle of grousing functionaries are by no means
revolutionaries; they seek to cement the gains made by
Eritrea over the past decades and to foster a lawful,
hopeful, and democratic country as enshrined in the
unimplemented Eritrean constitution. They are not going to
provide the spark that sets off the Eritrean tinderbox, but
they may be able to exert positive influence should there be
a new line-up in Asmara. In their view, the threat to the
country comes from Isaias' extraordinarily bad governance.
The businessman expressed real concern of growing Muslim
radicalism, as many young Muslims see the Asmara regime as
Christian, oppressive, and anti-Muslim. Post concurs with
the suggestion that the USG bolster Television Dehai, if it
can be done opaquely or obliquely. End Comment.

MCMULLEN