IS ISAIAS UNHINGED?

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000345

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2018
TAGS: PGOV AMED PINR ER
SUBJECT: IS ISAIAS UNHINGED?

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for Reason 1.4 (d)


1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: A well-connected businessman of Eritrean
origin claims that President Isaias Afwerki is mentally ill
and that his disastrous governance is generating concern
among powerful actors within the Eritrean establishment. The
businessman predicts Isaias will attempt to appease popular
and elite discontent by axing one or more high-profile regime
insiders in coming months, but that this will not provide a
solution to Eritrea's woes. He foresees senior military
and/or party leaders moving to oust or sideline Isaias within
a year. END SUMMARY.


2. (S/NF) MISLED OR MENTALLY UNBALANCED?
--------------

A wealthy dual-national businessman met with the ambassador
in early July to discuss Eritrea's economic and political
situation. He said that as President Isaias makes all
decisions, even on a quotidian level, a discussion of
politics and economics must focus on Isaias. He opined that
many of the decisions taken by Isaias recently are contrary
to the regime's own self-interest, leading the businessman to
wonder whether Isaias is somehow being misled by his inner
circle or if he is mentally unbalanced. The source noted
that Isaias' manic behavior has become worse in the last year
with his heavy drinking bouts, violent eruptions of temper,
paranoia so severe he rarely talks on the telephone, and his
total intolerance of disagreement or dissent.


3. (S/NF) A GROWING THREAT TO THE REGIME AND COUNTRY
-------------- --------------

The widespread deprivations experienced by the Eritrean
population are viewed by many as a direct result of decisions
taken by Isaias. Heretofore, however, popular pride in
Eritrea's independence and fear of Ethiopian irredentism have
combined to shield Isaias and his regime from mass discontent
arising from economic mismanagement and horrendous human
rights abuses. That may be changing, the source stated, as
widespread hunger and lack of hope for a better life are
beginning to cause people to listen to their stomachs, rather
than their heads or hearts. Powerful actors within the
regime, he continued, believe that the scale has tipped
against Isaias and are discussing changes that would preserve
the status quo by ousting Isaias or diluting his power.


4. (S/NF) THE ARMY AND THE PARTY
--------------

The businessman discussed and dismissed a number of potential
sources of political change in Eritrea, including the
National Security Agency, the Office of the President, a mass
uprising, the diaspora, the business community, and former
officials who retain a degree of popularity. He focused on
"the majors general and the party." The senior army brass
have both a political and personal (economic) stake in the
status quo, he explained, and may move to form "a junta" if
they felt the ruling establishment was further jeopardized by
an increasingly unstable Isaias. General Filipos
Woldeyohannes, being the commander of the Asmara region,
would have the inside track in becoming top dog in any such
junta, the source said. The Peoples Front for Democracy and
Justice, Eritrea's sole political party, remains a
well-disciplined national organization with substantial
grassroots clout. The party could call a national congress,
the businessman said, and select a new leader (the current
party chief is medically incapacitated) who would provide
policy direction to the government, with or without Isaias'
consent. He described party leaders Zemihret Yohannes and
Yemane Ghebreab as personable "communist ideologues" who lack
political ambition. He said Defense Minister Sebhat Ephrem
would be a consensus transitional pick, as he is popular
among party members and soldiers, while boasting Struggle
credentials equal to those of Isaias.


5. (S/NF) TOSS SOMEONE TO THE WOLVES?
--------------

The source said Isaias plans to deflect criticism by axing
one or more senior insiders, possibly as soon as September.
He said the party's economic guru, Hagos Ghebrehiwet, is
likely to be removed and blamed for the country's economic

ASMARA 00000345 002 OF 002


freefall. This will not solve Eritrea's problem of being run
by an unbalanced despot, the source continued, adding that
the elites and the masses realize that Hagos is only doing
Isaias' economic bidding.


6. (S/NF) THE ROT RUNS DEEP
--------------

The recent death of Eritrean industrialist Mohammed Saleh
Hagos under mysterious circumstances has generated fear
within the hard-pressed business community. The businessman,
who knew the late industrialist well, said Mohammed Saleh
Hagos was likely murdered due to his deep involvement in
illegal economic activities of various factions within the
military and National Security Agency. He went on to
characterize the military and party establishment as brutal
and corrupt, commenting that a political change cementing the
military or party's grip on power (by ousting or sidelining
Isaias) would not necessarily provide the type of change that
would be good for Eritrea, the region, or the United States.
The Eritrean people "need and deserve democracy," he
commented. He said if imprisoned former Defense Minister
Petros Solomon were somehow freed and assumed a position of
power, "the country would be safe."


7. (S) COMMENT
--------------

While the businessman is well-regarded and has access to
elite circles in Asmara and beyond, his contention that
powerful actors will move against Isaias because his unhinged
behavior is a threat to the regime's continuity is debatable.
Twenty years ago Qaddafi was viewed by many as mentally ill,
yet he remains in power. Isaias, a physically active 62 year
old, is 22 years younger than Mugabe. Tyrannical leaders
(Stalin, Ho Chi Minh, Castro, etc.) who helped found and/or
preserve their nations often remain popular despite their
seemingly irrational brutality. Isaias is a cagey,
security-savvy fighter who eluded the Ethiopians for 30 years
and has survived a number of assassination attempts since

1993. He is unlikely to go quietly into the night.


8. (S) COMMENT CONTINUED
--------------

Isaias suffered a severe bout of cerebral malaria and was
treated in Israel in the early 1990s. The Israeli ambassador
here sometimes joked that "we must have mis-prescribed the
president's meds," after particularly egregious behavior.
Isaias also currently suffers from debilitating lower back
pain, but otherwise appears healthy. Post would be
interested in the observations of the regional psychologist
or others regarding possible manifestations of Narcissistic
Personality Disorder (NPD) in Isaias' behavior. Post gathers
(from Jon Krakauer, who has written about leaders of
religious cults) that NPD is characterized by:

An exaggerated sense of self-importance, fantasies of
unlimited success or power, a sense of entitlement, a lack of
empathy, haughty or contemptuous behavior, a envy of others
or belief that others are envious of him, belief that he is
"special" and that normal rules don't apply to him,
self-righteous indignation when others are believed to be
breaking rules, and an intense reaction to criticism.

All these seem to apply to Isaias Afwerki. End Comment.

MCMULLEN