Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ASMARA334
2008-06-24 14:25:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Asmara
Cable title:  

OLF CLAIMS TO BE FIGHTING FOR DEMOCRACY

Tags:  PINS PREL PGOV KDEM ER ET 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000334 

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2018
TAGS: PINS PREL PGOV KDEM ER ET
SUBJECT: OLF CLAIMS TO BE FIGHTING FOR DEMOCRACY

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for Reason 1.4 (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000334

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2018
TAGS: PINS PREL PGOV KDEM ER ET
SUBJECT: OLF CLAIMS TO BE FIGHTING FOR DEMOCRACY

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for Reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: The Chairman of the Oromo Liberation Front
(OLF),Daawud Ibsa, believes his organization's support among
Ethiopia's largest ethnic group bodes well for the OLF's
chances in the event of fair elections in Ethiopia. He
complained to the ambassador June 19 that PM Meles has failed
to implement Ethiopia's progressive constitution and has
systematically centralized power into his own hands and that
of his political party, to the detriment of the Oromo people
and democracy in Ethiopia. Ibsa claimed the OLF is engaged
in armed struggle to promote the self-determination of the
Oromo people as envisaged in the Ethiopian constitution and
is militarily active on "Oromia's" western, southern, and
eastern fronts. The ambassador urged the OLF to desist from
armed struggle and, if it would not, to at least forgo acts
of terrorism. End summary.


2. (C) Courteous Chairman
--------------

OLF Chairman Daawud Ibsa, accompanied by the Washington-based
AmCit director of the Oromo Relief Association (ORA),paid a
courtesy call on the ambassador June 19 at the embassy. The
Chairman provided background on the OLF's history and
policies, emphasizing the OLF's coalition with the Tigrayan
Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Eritrean Peoples
Liberation Front (headed by Meles Zenawi and Isaias Afwerki,
respectively),to oust Ethiopia's Mengistu regime. Ibsa said
he was a charter member of the OLF's youth wing in the 1970s
and was elected chairman of the OLF in 1999. He spoke
English well and was polished in manner and dress.


3. (C) Falling-out with Meles
--------------

Despite being comrades in arms in the 1980s and early 1990s,
Ibsa said the OLF broke with the TPLF after the "snap
elections" of 1992, in which the OLF's strong base of support
in Addis Ababa and elsewhere shocked and scared Meles. Given
that the Oromos constitute an estimated 40% of Ethiopia's
population, Ibsa continued, combined with the OLF's
demonstrated grass-roots support, Meles realized the OLF

posed a clear threat to continued TPLF rule if a functioning
democratic system were implemented. Ibsa claimed that after
the TPLF-OLF break, Meles and Isaias cooperated against the
OLF until the start of the 1998-2000 Border War.


4. (C) Democracy, the OLF's Route to Power
--------------

Ibsa urged the USG to do more than criticize the Government
of Ethiopia's human rights abuses against the Oromo people
and others. He argued that the United States should press
Meles to allow true democracy and the full implementation of
Ethiopia's federal constitution, based on ethnic regions, as
this would be the most effective way to mitigate human rights
abuses and provide for good governance. Ibsa reasoned that
because many Oromos support the OLF, and that the Oromos
constitute a least a plurality of Ethiopia's population, then
the OLF would likely be the largest political party if free
elections were held.


5. (C) ...But Armed Struggle for Now
--------------

The OLF chairman said his organization has turned to armed
struggle to force the TPLF to allow the Oromo people to
exercise their right of self-determination as promised in the
federal constitution. Ibsa claimed the OLF is militarily
active, mentioning bases in Kenya and Sudan. The ambassador
advised the OLF to give up on armed struggle and work toward
democracy peacefully. Ibsa looked dubious but did not
comment. The ambassador then cautioned Ibsa about severe
consequences for the OLF if it were to engage in acts of
terrorism. He mentioned the May 20 bus bombing in Addis
Ababa in which an AmCit, among others, was murdered. Ibsa
replied that the TPLF is trying to paint the OLF with the
terrorism brush, but the OLF is staunchly against all acts of
terrorism. The OLF chairman warned that "Ethiopian brutality
in the Ogaden and Oromia" is providing fertile ground for
extremists advocating terrorism.


ASMARA 00000334 002 OF 002



6. (C) Sources of OLF Support
--------------

Ibsa said that in the past USAID provided support to the OLF,
but now the organization relies primarily on donations from
abroad, including from Norwegian Church Aid and the Lutheran
World Federation. The OLF (and/or the ORA) has offices in
many countries with Oromo emigrant populations. He said
Eritrea permitted the OLF to hold its 2004 General Conference
in Eritrea, as well as a meeting of its Central Committee in
March, 2008. We note the GSE allows the OLF to have a
bare-bones office in a suburb of Asmara and that Ibsa travels
on an Eritrean passport.


7. (C) Comment: The OLF, as described to us by Chairman
Daawud Ibsa, faces three big challenges. First, the OLF
needs to generate some hope of a democratic opening in
Ethiopia, given the organization's belief in its promising
prospects in a fair election. Second, as Eritrean
hospitality always comes with strings attached, OLF members
need to avoid being fully captured by Eritrea for use as
cannon fodder or bomb planters in another proxy war between
Isaias and Meles. Third, being a traditional
ethno-nationalist movement with a large Muslim base, the OLF
needs to provide young, disillusioned Oromos a political home
more attractive than that proffered by firebrand Islamists
who have made substantial inroads elsewhere in the region.
All three challenges, from Embassy Asmara,s perspective,
appear daunting, although we defer to Embassy Addis Ababa for
a more thorough analysis of the OLF and its future. End
Comment.
MCMULLEN