WHAT,S ERITREA UP TO IN SUDAN?

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000033

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2018
TAGS: PREL ER SU
SUBJECT: WHAT,S ERITREA UP TO IN SUDAN?

REF: KHARTOUM 075

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K McMullen for reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: Finnish MP and former EC Special Envoy for
Sudan Pekka Havisto told the ambassador January 18 that
Eritrea is working to help fulfill the "Garang Dream" in
Sudan, wherein marginalized people in the South, East, and in
Darfur cooperate to counterbalance the National Congress
Party and the powerful center. Eritrea, according to this
view, hopes to establish friendly Sudanese clients in
influential positions. Havisto said he met in Asmara with
representatives of Darfur's Justice and Equality Movement
(JEM),adding that the Eritreans continue to look for ways to
influence the course of events in Darfur. End Summary.


2. (C) Eritrea Seeking Another "Outside)In" Upset?
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According to Havisto, the Eritrean strategy for Sudan
somewhat mirrors the 2009 electoral strategy of GoSS
President Salva Kiir (reftel, para 8) "to run against the NCP
in alliance with the other marginalized peoples of Sudan."
Just as Eritrea won its thirty year war for independence only
after EPLF-supported ethnic rebels took Addis Ababa (in the
Eritrean perspective),so too would a Sudanese government
dominated by the formerly marginalized periphery, indebted to
Eritrea for political and other support along the way,
guarantee a pro-Eritrea Sudan, according to this view.


3. (C) The PFDJ's "Brain" and "Muscle"
--------------
Havisto said he had just met with the People's Front for
Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) Head of Political Affairs Yemane
Ghebreab, who he described as the "brains behind this
strategy." He said the PFDJ's "muscle" in terms of
implementing the strategy was Abdella Jabir, who encumbers
the party's blandly titled portfolio, Head of Organization
Affairs. NOTE: The Libyan COM here cites Abdella Jabir as
his "best Eritrean contact."


4. (C) SPLM, Eastern Front, and now JEM
--------------
-- The SPLM's late John Garang sold Isaias on this outside-in
approach to Sudan (the "Garang Dream"),Havisto avers, and
Eritrea maintains this strategy despite Garang's death. The
SPLM has long enjoyed Eritrea's support and is opening an
office in Asmara with a permanent representative.

-- The Eastern Front peace deal has been Eritrea's most
significant accomplishment in implementing this strategy, in
the opinion of Havisto and others. This month's visit to
Asmara by Eastern Front leaders, who were warned against
factionalism, reportedly included concerned discussions about
the slow pace of the accord's implementation.

-- The GSE seeks to develop a friendly client in Darfur.
Havisto said the Eritreans alienated the Darfur rebels
invited to Asmara to form the National Redemption Front after
the Abuja conference by holding them under virtual house
arrest, and are currently trying to rebuild relations with
JEM. Havisto met with JEM representatives while in Asmara,
and Acting PolOff noted a JEM representative in Codel
Payne,s meeting January 5 with Darfuris.


5. (C) Comment: Although one could say that Eritrea owes its
very existence as an independent state to the success of this
outside-in strategy vis-a-vis the Derg in 1990-91, recent
events demonstrate that supposedly "friendly clients" don't
always remain so. Nevertheless, Isaias may see this as small
Eritrea's best chance for a winning strategy in the region,
i.e., friendly and politically indebted neighboring states
run by former marginalized people who were helped to power by
Eritrea. Eritrean assistance for the SPLM may be one thing,
but some here may not comprehend that assistance to others
(radical Somali Islamists, etc.) is, for the USG, something
quite different-and unacceptable. Post has repeatedly made
this point with GSE and other interlocutors and will continue
to do so. End Comment.
MCMULLEN