ARS REJECTIONISTS TO RALLY IN ASMARA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000309

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2018
TAGS: PREL SO ER
SUBJECT: ARS REJECTIONISTS TO RALLY IN ASMARA

REF: ASMARA 269


1. (C) SUMMARY: Members of the Alliance for the
Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) who reject the June 9
reconciliation agreement with the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) reportedly will hold a conference in Asmara
on June 15 in an attempt to unseat Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed
as ARS leader - the result is likely to be rival groups
claiming to represent the ARS. The meeting will ostensibly
be open to the 178 members of the ARS Executive and Central
Committees, but as the Eritrean government strongly opposes
the reconciliation agreement, it is likely to stack the deck
against Sheikh Sharif by granting visas only to those who
oppose him, by threatening or bribing ARS members already in
country, and by using foreign funding to influence ARS
militia leaders on the ground in Somalia. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) A deep rift has emerged between ARS members who reject
reconciliation and those, including most of the ARS senior
leaders, who favor negotiations to end Somalia's 17 years of
strife. The ARS senior leaders traveled to Nairobi in late
March to meet with UN Special Representative for Somalia
Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, participated in the ensuing May 10-15
UN-facilitated talks in Djibouti with the TFG, and reached
agreement with the TFG at the May 31-June 8 round of
discussions. Each of these meetings was seen by Asmara-based
elements of the ARS general body as occurring without the
consent of the full Alliance. The rejectionists cite a
clause in the ARS bylaws stating that the Alliance must be
based in Asmara, and accuse the senior leadership of
violating these bylaws by conducting official business
outside of the city.


3. (C) Rumors of a split within the ARS and a move to oust
Sheikh Sharif as Chairman have circulated since the May
Djibouti talks. The June 15 meeting represents the first
concrete step towards dividing the ARS along the lines of
reconcilers versus rejectionists. The purported bone of
contention is whether discussions with the TFG should occur
before or after the Ethiopian military fully withdraws from
Somalia. Another important factor is the personal ambition
of lower-level rejectionists who may hope for a higher
position if the ARS deck is shuffled.


4. (C) Asmara contacts name the following individuals as
possible candidates for leadership of the rejectionist
factions of the ARS:

- Zakariya Mohamoud Haji Abdi- 2nd Assistant to the Chairman.
A noted resistance fundraiser in the United States and
listed in USG lookout systems, Zakariya has been a vocal
ringleader in denouncing Sheikh Sharif and has been
identified in news articles as both the temporary Chairman of
the ARS or as the new Chairman. On May 26, Zakariya sent a
letter to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon condemning the
Djibouti discussions, signing the letter as the "Acting Chair
of the ARS."

- Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys- Council of Islamic Courts.
Although he holds no ARS position and, as far as Post knows,
is not even an ARS member, he has become the primary
spokesperson against the actions of the Alliance leadership.
Some observers claim that Aweys serves as a mouthpiece for
the Eritrean government (reftel). Aweys is said to command a
following as large as that of Sheikh Sharif among Somalis,
with a stronger following within the country than Sheikh
Sharif (who reportedly has a large diaspora following).

- Hussein Mohammed Aidid- 2nd Vice Chair of the Central
Committee. Aidid is a relatively low-ranking officeholder of
the ARS and is seen as an ambitious, unethical young man with
little talent, following, or prospects. In conversation, he
lays his claim to credibility as being the son of Somali
warlord Mohammed Farah Aidid. Aidid is fluent in neither
Arabic nor Somali and is difficult to understand in English.
However, because of his family connections and his current
(albeit low) position in the ARS, he is a potential
candidate, and appears to have the Eritrean government's
support. Aidid was prominently seated next to Sheikh Aweys
in the "President's Box" during the May 24 Liberation Day
festivities and was one of the primary speakers during the
ARS' May 15 press conference denouncing the Djibouti

ASMARA 00000309 002 OF 002


discussions.

- Unknown/Relatively New Candidates. There is speculation
that the ARS rejectionists may choose a relatively unknown
candidate as their leader. Doing so could allow for a
last-minute reinstatement of Sheikh Sharif as Chairman if
there were a reconciliation between Sheikh Sharif and the ARS
rejectionists. The Committees could then publicly claim that
the elections were only for a temporary chairperson and that
Sheikh Sharif's leadership was never in question.


5. (C) COMMENT: Splintering is something Somali groups have
had lots of practice doing in recent decades, and we have no
doubt that Eritrea will be able to persuade some ambitious
and disaffected third or fourth tier ARS members to attempt
to unseat the ARS leadership. With the ARS rejectionist
faction holding its meeting in Asmara - a venue that ARS
reconcilers fear with good reason - it is likely that a fair
number of ARS members will be assembled to denounce the June
9 agreement and its authors. The resulting split will
produce dueling ARS factions. If Eritrea has received
foreign funding to support the ARS, which we believe to be
the case, it is likely that the rejectionist faction will be
able to supply the ARS militias on the ground in Somalia with
funding, ammunition, and other logistics. With the
encouragement and support of the ARS rejectionist faction,
the ARS gunmen might choose to ignore the cease-fire
provisions of the June 9 agreement, unless the reconciler
faction has obtained alternate financing with which to
influence events on the ground in Somalia. Al-Shabaab
fighters will almost certainly continue their attacks
regardless of what the ARS gunmen decide to do. END COMMENT.
MCMULLEN