ERITREA PESSIMISTIC ON SUDAN'S CPA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000254

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2018
TAGS: PREL ER SU SO
SUBJECT: ERITREA PESSIMISTIC ON SUDAN'S CPA

ASMARA 00000254 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for Reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: Eritrea's point man on Sudan, Abdella Jabir,
believes "the Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA) will not
succeed because the SPLM's leadership is weak." He revealed
that Eritrea has 40 monitors on the Chad-Sudan border and
commented that Libya is "unreliable" as its priorities shift
between Sudan and Chad. He was also pessimistic on Somali
reconciliation prospects. End Summary.


2. (SBU) ERITREA WANTS A UNITED SUDAN:
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Abdella Jabir, officially the Director of Organizational
Affairs for Eritrea's ruling (and sole) political party, in
fact manages the Isaias regime's Sudan portfolio under the
overall foreign policy guidance of Yemane Ghebreab. During a
May 7 courtesy call with the ambassador, Abdella shared his
views on the current state of play in Sudan and provided an
Eritrean perspective. He said Eritrea strongly supports a
united and stable Sudan and is against secession by the South
or any other region. He said he remains concerned about the
slow implementation of the Eastern Sudan Peace Accord. He
said Eritrea has had a somewhat rocky relationship with Sudan
since 1993 and hopes Sudan will emerge as a friendly, stable
neighbor.


3. (C) SPLM WEAK, CPA IN JEOPARDY:
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The death of SPLM leader John Garang was a huge loss for
South Sudan; Salva Kiir has not shown the same strong
leadership as his predecessor, Abdella stated. Abdella
characterized the SPLM leadership as divided, inexperienced,
and weak. He said the National Congress Party (NCP) cadres
in Khartoum were relatively sophisticated, focused,
well-organized, and flushed with oil money. He particularly
worried that the NCP would exploit natural divisions within
the SPLM, such as an effort by Khartoum to split Riak Machar
and his Nuer followers from the Dinka-led SPLM. He flatly
stated that he did not think the CPA would succeed, although
it was in Eritrea's interest that it did. (NOTE: Abdella and
Yemane Ghebreab are currently in Juba to attend the SPLM
Congress. END NOTE.)


4. (C) BORDER MONITORS, PERFIDIOUS LIBYA:
--------------

Abdella spoke rather bitterly about Libya, saying it was
"unreliable" due to pendulum-like swings first in favor of
Khartoum and then N'djamena. He groused that arrangements
for Libyan financial and logistical support of the 40
Eritrean monitors situated in two locations along the
Sudan-Chad border had been troublesome. He said the Eritrea
monitors served alongside Libyan counterparts as agreed in a
quadripartite pact among Sudan, Chad, Libya, and Eritrea. He
said the 40 Eritrean monitors would be replaced by, or
subsumed in, the Dakar Accord monitoring operation. We
inferred that Abdella's pique with the Libyans arose due to
the lack of expected financial transfers from Tripoli to
Asmara (or more likely Malta, where the party keeps its
accounts) in support of border monitoring.


5. (C) SOMALI RECONCILIATION:
--------------

Regarding the UN-facilitated Somali reconciliation talks in
Djibouti, Abdella opined that they would not be productive.
Asked why, Abdella answered, "Because the UN is seeking to
isolate Eritrea." (COMMENT: This apparent non sequitur
highlights Eritrea's belief that it can exercise a veto over
any Somali peace deal that does not suit Eritrean interests.
Paramount among these is to prevent Ethiopia from making a
graceful exit from Somalia with the help of the UN and the
international community. END COMMENT.)


6. (SBU) COMMENT: Abdella Jabir's rather unguarded comments
preceded the May 10 JEM raid on Omdurman, which has likely
thrown Eritrea's Sudan calculations for a loop. Abdella went

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out of his way to stress that the United States and Eritrea
have common interests in helping cement peace deals in
southern and eastern Sudan, both of which are currently
foundering, in his view.


7. MINIMIZE CONSIDERED.
MCMULLEN