TURKMENISTAN ENERGY: EU TROIKA, LONDON CONFERENCE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000417

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2028
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SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN ENERGY: EU TROIKA, LONDON CONFERENCE

REF: A. WRIGHT-HOAGLAND E-MAIL DTD 04/02/08

B. BAKU 0225 (NOTAL)

C. ASHGABAT 0295

Classified By: CDA RICHARD E. HOAGLAND: 1.4 (B),(D)


1. (S) SUMMARY: As evidenced by the cancelled energy
session during the upcoming EU Troika Central Asian
Ministerial in Ashgabat (ref A),Turkmenistan is increasingly
skittish, even secretive, about discussing Caspian energy
issues where it cannot strictly control the agenda and
content of the discussion. During the Putin-Berdimuhamedov
extended pull-aside in Moscow on February 21 (ref B),Putin
might have warned the Turkmen president against anything
energy trans-Caspian and offered him security guarantees.
Following his own path, Berdimuhamedov may be trying to have
it all ways: pursue trans-Caspian options but keep it as far
below the radar as possible and eschew any multilateral
energy discussion. The upcoming April 17-18 international
conference in London, "Oil and Gas in Turkmenistan," is not
an anomaly -- it's Turkmenistan's conference. Ashgabat
contracted with the event planner and controls the topics
and choice of speakers. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Charge met with EU-TACIS Adviser Michael Wilson
(protect throughout) on April 3 to ask why Turkmenistan has
cancelled the session to discuss energy during the April 9-10
EU Troika Central Asian Ministerial in Ashgabat. According
to Wilson, during the early planning stages for the Troika
Ministerial, Turkmenistan provisionally accepted a
side-session on Caspian energy. When Ashgabat learned the EU
presidency, Slovenia, had scheduled an Institute for
Strategic Studies conference in Ljubljana, "Caspian Trends,"
for April 10, Turkmenistan went through the roof because it
had not been consulted in advance. Foreign Minister Rashid
Meredov made clear Turkmenistan did not endorse the
conference, and sent a letter to Brussels advising that the
Government of Turkmenistan viewed the energy session at the
Ashgabat Ministerial as "inappropriate." The Slovene Foreign
Minister pressed back, via the French Embassy in Ashgabat,
which represents the EU presidency. This led to a formal
diplomatic note from Ashgabat to Brussels declining to accept
the energy meeting on the Troika Ministerial agenda and
adding the timing, in any case, would not work since Deputy
Prime Minister Tachberdi Tagiyev and other energy officials
would be out of the country during the Troika.


3. (C) On April 2, the official Government of Turkmenistan
website announced Tagiyev and Hydrocarbon State Agency
Director Bayrammurad Muradov and others would be in Paris on
April 10 to discuss energy and other issues. According to
Wilson, the French have been eager to increase their
bilateral relationship with Turkmenistan, and Ashgabat saw
this was a convenient time so Tagiyev and other officials
could justifiably be out of the country. Wilson added French
Ambassador Christian Lechervy, with whom he had just met, is
not briefing the Paris schedule or agenda to his colleagues.

MOSCOW'S CARROT AND STICK?


4. (S) When Charge asked why the Turkmen have become so
sensitive and secretive about energy issues, Wilson answered,
"Russia." He alleged the turning point was the CIS Informal
Summit in Moscow where President Putin and President
Berdimuhamedov had an unscheduled but extended pull-aside
during a cultural event(ref B). Wilson claimed he has an
impeccable source in Moscow who told him Putin warned
Berdimuhamedov in no uncertain terms, "No bilateral deals in
the Caspian without Russian approval," and then sweetened the
warning by verbally guaranteeing Berdimuhamedov's security

ASHGABAT 00000417 002 OF 002


against internal unrest and external plotting, and
Turkmenistan's security against Iran. Wilson speculated
Berdimuhamedov, nevertheless, is inching forward with
Azerbaijan on Caspian energy cooperation, but wants to keep
it as far below the radar as possible.

"OIL AND GAS IN TURKMENISTAN" CONFERENCE IN LONDON


5. (C) In a separate meeting on April 3, U.K. Ambassador
Peter Butcher confirmed to Charge Wilson's version of why the
energy session was removed from the EU Troika agenda for
April 9-10 in Ashgabat.


6. (C) About the April 17-18 "Oil and Gas in Turkmenistan"
conference in London, Butcher clarified it is a Government of
Turkmenistan conference. Ashgabat hired IBC Global
Conferences as the event planner. (COMMENT: This explains
why Turkmenistan is able to clear who does or does not speak
at the conference. END COMMENT.) As planned in Fall 2007
during UK Energy Envoy Malcolm Wick's visit to Ashgabat,
senior Turkmen energy officials will participate in a "study
tour" (that has now been shortened by one day) April 14-16
and then attend the April 17-18 conference. A second group
of Turkmen energy technocrats will arrive in the UK April 19
for a more detailed, one-week study tour.


7. (C) Butcher opined the Turkmen are increasingly
uncomfortable in any energy discussion they do not control
and that might have an element of multilateralism. He added,
"And they seem to be getting nervous about any position that
would imply their public interest in moving forward on
anything trans-Caspian."


8. (S) COMMENT: If Putin both read the Caspian riot act and
offered Berdimuhamedov various security guarantees on
February 21, that might explain Berdimuhamedov's and
Meredov's cooler shoulders toward Coordinator for Eurasian
Energy Diplomacy Ambassador Steven Mann on February 28 (ref
C). It could be possible that Ashgabat and Baku are inching
forward toward joint commercial exploitation of Caspian
resources even before achieving bilateral delimitation, as
some Embassy Baku reporting as suggested. If so,
Berdimuhamedov is walking a high-wire over Niagra Falls. But
at this point we can only speculate as we try to analyze from
the bits and pieces we have. END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND