Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ASHGABAT388
2008-03-28 10:44:00
SECRET
Embassy Ashgabat
Cable title:  

TURKMENISTAN/TURKEY: ENERGY WAS THE KEY ISSUE

Tags:  PGOV PREL EPET RS AJ TU TX 
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ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 281044Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0508
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 000388 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E, STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EUR/SE, EEB
PLEASE PASS TO USTDA DAN STEIN
ENERGY FOR EKIMOFF/THOMPSON
COMMERCE FOR HEUPER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2028
TAGS: PGOV PREL EPET RS AJ TU TX
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN/TURKEY: ENERGY WAS THE KEY ISSUE


Classified By: CDA RICHARD E. HOAGLAND: 1.4 (B),(D)

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 000388

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E, STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EUR/SE, EEB
PLEASE PASS TO USTDA DAN STEIN
ENERGY FOR EKIMOFF/THOMPSON
COMMERCE FOR HEUPER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2028
TAGS: PGOV PREL EPET RS AJ TU TX
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN/TURKEY: ENERGY WAS THE KEY ISSUE


Classified By: CDA RICHARD E. HOAGLAND: 1.4 (B),(D)


1. (S) SUMMARY: Turkish Ambassador Hakki Akil told the
Charge on March 28,

-- the key issue discussed during President Berdimuhamedov's
March 24-25 visit to Turkey was energy, both with President
Gul and Prime Minister Erdogan;

-- Berdimuhamedov is prepared to sell to Turkey up to 20
bcm/y of natural gas and wants to do so via the Caspian;

-- Turkey is playing a helpful role between Turkmenistan and
Azerbaijan but is fully aware of Turkmenistan's sensitivities;

-- Foreign Minister Meredov is probably more powerful than
ever, but increasingly has to keep his head down in deference
to a more secure Berdimuhamedov, doesn't delegate, and is
increasingly overwhelmed; and

-- a Berdimuhamedov visit to Washington within the next four
months would be received as a mark of respect and would "open
many doors for what we all want to accomplish -- and not just
in energy." END SUMMARY.

ENERGY WAS THE VISIT'S KEY ISSUE



2. (S) Turkish Ambassador Hakki Akil told Charge March 28
energy was the key issue discussed in Ankara March 24 during
President Berdimuhamedov's two-day official visit to Turkey,
the first by a Turkmen president in nearly eight years.
March 25 was a "cultural day" in Istanbul. Akil said he was
alarmed when a day or two before the Turkmen delegation was
to depart Ashgabat, the presidential protocol office informed
the Turkish Embassy Deputy Prime Minister for Oil and Gas
Tachberdi Tagiyev would not travel with the president, as
previously planned. Akil assumed that meant energy would be
totally off the agenda. Instead, on March 24 energy was the
key issue Berdimuhamedov discussed with both Prime Minister
Erdogan and President Gul. Akil said his side reprimanded
him after the Erdogan meeting for having participated in
great detail, but, he said, that was the only way to ensure

that President Berdimuhamedov heard a detailed discussion of
the issue, since Akil is never sure how much actually gets
passed to him by his own ministers.

TURKMENISTAN SAYS READY TO SELL TURKEY UP TO 20 BCM/Y NATURAL
GAS


3. (S) Berdimuhamedov's meeting with President Gul was
one-on-one, with only the Turkmen Foreign Ministry Director
for the Middle East and Turkey serving as translator.
Berdimuhamedov reportedly assured Gul Turkmenistan is
prepared to sell to Turkey 10 bcm/y of natural gas to begin
with and eventually up to 20 bcm/y, and would strongly prefer
to do this via the Caspian -- off-shore Turkmenistan to
off-shore Azerbaijan. Gul suggested an alternate route might
be via Iran, but Berdimuhamedov responded firmly that should
be only a fall-back option because he doesn't trust Iran to
be a reliable partner. He allegedly quipped
Turkmenistan-Iran is like Russia-Ukraine. When Gul pressed
on the technical aspects, Berdimuhamedov assured him it would
be relatively easy to link Turkmenistan's and Azerbaijan's
off-shore infrastructures.


4. (S) During the meeting with the Prime Minister that Akil

ASHGABAT 00000388 002 OF 003


attended, Erdogan promoted the Nabucco Pipeline and made
clear Turkmenistan's gas is needed for it. Berdimuhamedov
asked, "Who actively supports Nabucco?" Erdogan reportedly
replied, "Obviously, the European Union." Berdimuhamedov
asked, "Anyone else?" Edogan added, "The United States, of
course." According to Akil, Berdimuhamedov beamed and said,
"That's what I wanted to hear. That's what I wanted to hear!"

TURKEY MEDIATES BETWEEN TURKMENISTAN AND AZERBAIJAN?


5. (S) When Charge asked if Turkey is mediating between
Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, Akil was a bit guarded. He said
the Turkish side had originally hoped for a four-day, not
two-day visit, and that the final two days would have been at
a private site on Turkey's southern coast -- with
Azerbaijan's President Aliyev present. But the Turkmen had
scotched that. In the end, the Turkish side raised but did
not press the idea of a tripartite summit. Berdimuhamedov
didn't say no, but he made clear he wants an Aliyev visit to
Ashgabat first. Despite recent press reports, Akil said he
does not believe there is any agreement for that yet,
"although you never know what the secretive Turkmen are up to
until they do it." He suggested it might be usefukl for the
United States to suggest to Aliyev, who is "more reasonable,"
that he make the first move and ask to visit Ashgabat
soonest. Akil re-emphasized what we have often heard:
"Never underestimate Turkmenistan's historic inferiority
complex about Azerbaijan." Akil hinted an "accidental"
Turkey-Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan meeting could happen in
Bucharest at the April 2-4 NATO Summit. At the end of their
meeting, Akil told the Charge, "There might be a surprise
within a month. Don't be shocked if there's a tri-partite
ministerial" (Turkey, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan).

A FULLY SUCCESSFUL VISIT


6. (S) Akil said he is aware the media were misled about the
discussion of energy during the visit, and so the think-tank
analysts are getting it wrong, too. But that was done
purposely at the Turkmen side's insistence to ensure there is
no publicity about Berdimuhamedov's Caspian intentions -- yet.


7. (C) The other parts of the visit were generally prosaic
with no serious missteps, although Akil said the Turks were
more than a little bemused by the cultural pomp and emphasis
on Turkmen culture and Turkmen-centered events Ashgabat
demanded, including a meeting with 800 Turkmen students and
military cadets studying in Turkey and a concert that
included 20 Turkmen dancers, who also performed for the
president at various stops.


8. (C) Akil said Ankara judges the visit was fully
successful. He also believes Berdimuhamedov was highly
satisfied -- so much so that he offered Akil an Ahaltekke
horse as a thank-you gift for his role.

FOREIGN MINISTER MEREDOV


9. (C) Akil asserted that Foreign Minister Meredov is
"Berdimuhamedov's brain," primarily responsible for
Turkmenistan's new policies. He added that the problem is
Turkmen leaders, traditionally and today, do not like to
share power or be seen as sharing power. That means Meredov
has to walk a tightrope at all times to keep his head down.
As Berdimuhamedov feels more secure as president, Meredov has
to limit his time with foreign ambassadors -- even though he
is foreign minister -- because he can't afford to be seen as

ASHGABAT 00000388 003 OF 003


possibly plotting. A further complication, according to
Akil, is that Meredov is a fierce micromanager and gives as
little authority as possible to his deputies and department
heads, and so anything, unless it's truly front-burner, that
used to take forever to get done now takes twice as long as
forever.

INVITE BERDIMUHAMEDOV TO WASHINGTON


10. (S) Akil urged that the United States invite
Berdimhamedov to Washington within the next four months. He
said the Turkmen president would value that as a mark of
respect, and the visit would "open many doors for what we all
want to accomplish -- and not just in energy."
Geopolitically, Berdimuhamedov needs the visit to buck him up
against Russia, which "has him under enormous pressure," Akil
emphasized. Charge said he would convey Akil's views to
Washington.
HOAGLAND