Anjouan Authorities Concerned About Security

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000717

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/FO AND AF/E

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ECON ASEC CN
SUBJECT: Anjouan Authorities Concerned About Security


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Anjouan president Toybou fears former Bacar
loyalists will take action once African Union forces withdraw from
his island. He has asked the Union government to seek to extend the
mandate of the Tanzanian forces and to train a new police force.
END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Anjouan Island President (governor) Moussa Toybou told
Comoros Officer October 20 that he fears Bacar loyalists will act to
destabilize the island after African Union (AU) forces withdraw next
month. Elements of the Union Army and Gendarmerie are stationed in
Anjouan, Toybou said, but in insufficient numbers. He is recruiting
a new police force, but he says the Union police does not have the
resources to train them, nor are the Tanzanian or Sudanese AU forces
conducting training (Note: Post previously reported that AU forces
would train new security personnel in Anjouan, based on our
briefings. This apparently never happened. End Note).


3. (SBU) Toybou alleged that Bacar loyalists remain in Anjouan,
members of his informal militia who neither fled nor were arrested.
Over 20 fled with Bacar to Mayotte in March and were relocated to
Reunion. An additional dozen of his officials escaped Anjouan in
July and fled to Mayotte - Toybou believes these members of Bacar's
regime in Mayotte are in contact with allies on the island.
Bodyguards and tight security procedures around the island president
indicate he genuinely believes this threat. Replying to a question,
Toybou said the Union government downplays his fears and says they
do not have the resources to do more to secure Anjouan (Comment:
Indeed, our contacts in Moroni do not appear to be worried. End
Comment.)


4. (SBU) To further complicate matters, over 50 military and
civilian Bacar loyalists are in prison in Grande Comore. Religious
leaders in Anjouan have demanded that President Sambi release them
and the Presidents advisors reportedly agree, noting Sambi "hopes to
retire to Anjouan some day." A business contact who deals with the
military reported that Sambi indeed gave the order to release these
prisoners, but Grande Comoran military officers refused to free "the
enemy" and let them rejoin their ranks. At present, these 50
Anjouanese remain in prison. Resentment over this in Anjouan and
broken Union promises to rebuild the island after order was restored
in March further weaken Toybou's position.


5. (SBU) Toybou said the Anjouanese population shares his fears
and does not want to see the Tanzanians leave - in fact he said he
made an official request to the Union government to prolong the AU
deployment in Anjouan. He reported that the response he received
was that the AU does not have the budget to maintain the force
beyond November.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: The Anjouanese that Comoros Officer spoke to
were disappointed by lack of Union effort to rebuild the island
after Bacar's departure; President Sambi's popularity peaked in
June, then steadily declined. Abysmal school exam (BAC) results,
with 10 percent passing, remind Anjouanese how much their island is
neglected. It is hard to assess if Toybou's fears are justified,
but they are no doubt genuine: he is afraid. END COMMENT.

MARQUARDT