Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ANTANANARIVO70
2008-01-28 13:40:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Antananarivo
Cable title:
COMOROS AS VIEWED FROM MADAGASCAR
how-toVZCZCXYZ0011 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHAN #0070 0281340 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 281340Z JAN 08 FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0902 INFO RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000070
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO
ADDIS PASS A/S FRAZER
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS MA CN
SUBJECT: COMOROS AS VIEWED FROM MADAGASCAR
REF: ANTANANARIVO 39
UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000070
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO
ADDIS PASS A/S FRAZER
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS MA CN
SUBJECT: COMOROS AS VIEWED FROM MADAGASCAR
REF: ANTANANARIVO 39
1. (SBU) SUMMARY. In separate meetings January 23 with Foreign
Minister Marcel Ranjeva, and January 24 with Prime Minister Charles
Rabemananjara, the Ambassador sought Malagasy views of the current
crisis in the Comoros. Both expressed frustration at the ongoing
instability in their neighbor and concern that it could spill over
to affect Madagascar's security, especially if it were to produce a
flow of Comoran refugees. Neither, however, showed any willingness
to participate in efforts to seek a peaceful solution to the crisis
in Anjouan. END SUMMARY.
2. (SBU) Ranjeva placed the current inter-island crisis within the
context of separatist tension in the Comoros that has endured for
the past ten years. He blamed Comoran Union President Ahmed
Abdallah Sambi for having moved too fast to try to "solve" this
problem, contrasting it with former President Azali's more
deliberate approach. He clearly opposed Sambi's advocacy of a
military solution, at one point suggesting that a frontal attack
would be likely to fail -- then later suggesting that taking Anjouan
was not a difficult problem militarily, but that it remained
undesirable because of the civilian casualties that would likely
ensue. He noted that Madagascar already has problems with Comoran
students overstaying their visas and worried that an armed conflict
might generate another flow of Comorans to Madagascar.
3. (SBU) Ranjeva expressed the hope that the issue would be
discussed at the African Union (AU) Summit in Addis where, he
opined, the solution must lie. He agreed that Anjouan rebel warlord
Col. Mohamed Bacar had to leave to solve the crisis and wondered,
half jokingly, if Bacar might be paid to leave. He noted AU
negotiator Francisco Madeira had stated that diplomatic options had
run out and that Bacar must depart, that his 300 militiamen could
not be allowed to hold the whole population of Anjouan hostage.
Ranjeva noted that South African Foreign Minister Zuma seems to have
become less involved in seeking a solution to the Comoran problem
over the past six months. He tempered his hope of an AU solution by
noting that the Nigeria-Cameroon dispute remained the only
successful African conflict resolution to date.
4. (SBU) Prime Minister Rabemananjara, who spent three years in the
Comoros (2001-4) as part of the Francophonie peacekeeping team, had
somewhat different views. He recalled the competition between the
AU and the Francophonie back then, suggesting the AU mechanism might
not be the best for finding a solution. Instead he stressed the
importance of French involvement. According to the PM, the question
of Comoran unity stretched beyond the current crisis. In his view,
the problems of Anjouan and Mayotte are inseparable. In the
meantime, Rabemananjara suggested that only the French could force
Bacar to go into exile.
5. (SBU) The PM also identified poverty as the fundamental problem
the Comoros faces. "La crise est total," he said, noting the thorny
political problems still paled next to the economic challenges. "Is
there a single factory in Comoros?" he asked, and then answered his
own question: "All of the money in the Comoros comes from France [as
remittances]." Like Ranjeva, he indicated this poverty presented a
problem for Madagascar by drawing Comoran immigrants illegally
seeking greater opportunities than they find at home.
6. (SBU) COMMENT. From our perspective, unlike Ranjeva's, the
current crisis should not be seen as a continuation of the
separatism of ten years ago. At that time, domination by Grande
Comore had engendered a grass roots separatist movement; in this
case, it was the power grab by one individual that triggered the
crisis. However we do agree that the constitutional "solution" to
the separatist problem of ten years ago is not sustainable over the
long term. It provides too many inefficient overlapping
island/Union competencies and it does not provide sufficient clarity
about how to resolve conflicts between these competencies. Once the
Bacar problem is resolved, this will remain a thorny issue needing
to be addressed. END COMMENT.
MARQUARDT
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO
ADDIS PASS A/S FRAZER
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS MA CN
SUBJECT: COMOROS AS VIEWED FROM MADAGASCAR
REF: ANTANANARIVO 39
1. (SBU) SUMMARY. In separate meetings January 23 with Foreign
Minister Marcel Ranjeva, and January 24 with Prime Minister Charles
Rabemananjara, the Ambassador sought Malagasy views of the current
crisis in the Comoros. Both expressed frustration at the ongoing
instability in their neighbor and concern that it could spill over
to affect Madagascar's security, especially if it were to produce a
flow of Comoran refugees. Neither, however, showed any willingness
to participate in efforts to seek a peaceful solution to the crisis
in Anjouan. END SUMMARY.
2. (SBU) Ranjeva placed the current inter-island crisis within the
context of separatist tension in the Comoros that has endured for
the past ten years. He blamed Comoran Union President Ahmed
Abdallah Sambi for having moved too fast to try to "solve" this
problem, contrasting it with former President Azali's more
deliberate approach. He clearly opposed Sambi's advocacy of a
military solution, at one point suggesting that a frontal attack
would be likely to fail -- then later suggesting that taking Anjouan
was not a difficult problem militarily, but that it remained
undesirable because of the civilian casualties that would likely
ensue. He noted that Madagascar already has problems with Comoran
students overstaying their visas and worried that an armed conflict
might generate another flow of Comorans to Madagascar.
3. (SBU) Ranjeva expressed the hope that the issue would be
discussed at the African Union (AU) Summit in Addis where, he
opined, the solution must lie. He agreed that Anjouan rebel warlord
Col. Mohamed Bacar had to leave to solve the crisis and wondered,
half jokingly, if Bacar might be paid to leave. He noted AU
negotiator Francisco Madeira had stated that diplomatic options had
run out and that Bacar must depart, that his 300 militiamen could
not be allowed to hold the whole population of Anjouan hostage.
Ranjeva noted that South African Foreign Minister Zuma seems to have
become less involved in seeking a solution to the Comoran problem
over the past six months. He tempered his hope of an AU solution by
noting that the Nigeria-Cameroon dispute remained the only
successful African conflict resolution to date.
4. (SBU) Prime Minister Rabemananjara, who spent three years in the
Comoros (2001-4) as part of the Francophonie peacekeeping team, had
somewhat different views. He recalled the competition between the
AU and the Francophonie back then, suggesting the AU mechanism might
not be the best for finding a solution. Instead he stressed the
importance of French involvement. According to the PM, the question
of Comoran unity stretched beyond the current crisis. In his view,
the problems of Anjouan and Mayotte are inseparable. In the
meantime, Rabemananjara suggested that only the French could force
Bacar to go into exile.
5. (SBU) The PM also identified poverty as the fundamental problem
the Comoros faces. "La crise est total," he said, noting the thorny
political problems still paled next to the economic challenges. "Is
there a single factory in Comoros?" he asked, and then answered his
own question: "All of the money in the Comoros comes from France [as
remittances]." Like Ranjeva, he indicated this poverty presented a
problem for Madagascar by drawing Comoran immigrants illegally
seeking greater opportunities than they find at home.
6. (SBU) COMMENT. From our perspective, unlike Ranjeva's, the
current crisis should not be seen as a continuation of the
separatism of ten years ago. At that time, domination by Grande
Comore had engendered a grass roots separatist movement; in this
case, it was the power grab by one individual that triggered the
crisis. However we do agree that the constitutional "solution" to
the separatist problem of ten years ago is not sustainable over the
long term. It provides too many inefficient overlapping
island/Union competencies and it does not provide sufficient clarity
about how to resolve conflicts between these competencies. Once the
Bacar problem is resolved, this will remain a thorny issue needing
to be addressed. END COMMENT.
MARQUARDT