MAYOR TO PRESIDENT: JUST LET ME DO MY JOB

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000691

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV MA
SUBJECT: MAYOR TO PRESIDENT: JUST LET ME DO MY JOB

REF: A. 07 ANTANANARIVO 001241

B. 08 ANTANANARIOV 00644

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES ERIC STROMAYER FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D
.


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a meeting between Antananarivo Mayor Andry
Rajoelina and Ambassador Marquardt, the Mayor outlined his
ongoing difficulties with President Ravalomanana and his
party, TIM, painting himself as an eager but frustrated
reformer who wants nothing more than to do his job. While he
believes the President wants him out of power before
regularly scheduled elections in 2011, he still believes that
following a non-aligned path between the vocal but weak
opposition and the President's political allies remains his
best option. As the conflict continues, Rajoelina is
sympathetic to Embassy concerns about MCC indicators, and
sees attention from the international community as a
counterbalance to pressure from the government. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Extrapolating from the events of the last month in the
ongoing feud with the national government (reftel B),
Rajoelina did not hesitate in his assertion that the
president's party, TIM, wanted him out. Recent unsuccessful
efforts to that effect appear to have been spearheaded by
Prime Minister Charles Rabemananjara, and Rajoelina joined
recent media speculation that Rabemananjara may soon be
retired due to these failures. The President has publicly
denied that this is the case, but Rajoelina believes that TIM
is already in "election mode", and that his defiance thus far
will be seen as TIM's failure if they cannot have their way.


3. (C) Frustrated with the financial siege of his
administration, Rajoelina finds that he's wasting two thirds
of his time on this dispute while his development plans for
the city proceed at a crawl. The feud has become so public
that during a recent bid to rebuild City Hall, burnt down in
1972 amid political violence, three major contractors backed
out for fear of crossing the president - who himself failed
to accomplish the same task during his tenure as mayor.
Rajoelina stated that he "just wants to develop the city",
and wondered aloud why "Ravalomanana is picking on the little
mayor". In answer to his own question, however, he admits
that his rise to power is an affront to TIM's dominance, and
that in the 10 months since he was elected he has gathered
substantial information on the previous administration's
alleged corruption and financial mismanagement, much of it
detailed in an unpublished audit conducted at the beginning
of his term. He has no intention of releasing this
information at the moment, if only because it would only
escalate the conflict with TIM; for now, Rajoelina and his
administration remain carefully in the political center,
wedged uncomfortably between the opposition and the President.


4. (C) Rajoelina was sympathetic to Embassy concerns about
Madagascar's failure to meet certain MCC indicators and hence
to qualify for a second compact, and agreed that the
situation today had changed from the time of the first
compact. He expressed his support for an outspoken
international community, mentioning in particular an Embassy
editorial published in July 2008 in which the DCM criticized
President Ravalomanana's focus on personal business
interests. Although print media is relatively free and open
to domestic commentators, the Mayor and his supporters are
encouraged by international attention to governance in
Madagascar. In addition to the President's willingness to
toy with administrative structures and financial control in
pursuit of his domestic goals, Rajoelina also mentioned the
high number of public figures currently in prison and the
recent expropriation of land around Antananarivo. The city
claims that this land falls within its authority and that the
President's development of these areas will deprive the city
of a valuable "buffer zone" against floods.


5. (C) COMMENT: The Mayor's comments generally fit media
reports and opposition claims, and he was unable to offer
significant new insight on the conflict. He intends to push
on, despite the government's hostility, and is focused for
the moment on finishing his term, and attempting to address
what he sees as the city's main socioeconomic problem: the
often-cited rising cost of living across the country. It is
clear at this point that TIM is playing hardball, and doesn't
expect to lose; however, the Mayor is playing his cards
close, taking the high road, and garnering popular support
because of it. Should the situation worsen, he still has the
unpublished audit and untapped opposition support, but for
the moment the ball is in the President's court.

ANTANANARI 00000691 002 OF 002


STROMAYER