Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ANTANANARIVO683
2008-10-08 12:40:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Antananarivo
Cable title:  

Comoran Dialogue Blocked, Referendum More Likely

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL ECON ASEC CN 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHAN #0683 2821240
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 081240Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1679
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000683 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/FO AND AF/E

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ECON ASEC CN
SUBJECT: Comoran Dialogue Blocked, Referendum More Likely

REF: ANTAN 620 (AND PREVIOUS)

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000683

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/FO AND AF/E

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ECON ASEC CN
SUBJECT: Comoran Dialogue Blocked, Referendum More Likely

REF: ANTAN 620 (AND PREVIOUS)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: President Sambi offered no assurances to the
opposition in his Eid message, instead suggesting he will hold a
referendum on the constitution. Opposition members declared October
5 that they opposed any revision of the constitution, rejected
"dialogue" on Sambi's terms, and demanded Moheli have its turn in
the rotating presidency before changing Comoran institutions. END
SUMMARY.

President Sambi Reassures No One in Eid Message
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2. (SBU) President Sambi addressed Comorans October 1 on the
occasion of the Eid celebration marking the end of the month of
Ramadan. He announced grand plans to improve Comorans' lives by
improving water, electricity, and housing. While offering nothing
new or concrete in these promises, he set the stage of the political
thrust of his speech. Sambi said the Comoros is ungovernable with
four presidents, four governments, and four legislatures; making the
case the system was inefficient and expensive.


3. (SBU) The President said for the good of the nation he intended
to revise the constitution and reform institutions. He insisted
that if the political opposition refused to talk (REFTELS),he would
hold a referendum to take the issue to the people. In addition to
"rationalizing" institutions, President Sambi said he would
harmonize the Comoros' electoral cycle, so Union and island
executive and legislative mandates ended at the same time. In this
context, Sambi said, "some terms must be extended and others
shortened so we can hold all elections on the same day." (NOTE: The
President did not/not reassure the opposition, particularly in
Moheli, with a public promise to step down when his term ends in

2010. END NOTE). Sambi also said he wants the power to dissolve
the National Assembly "if he deems it is not performing." He
repeated his allegation that over 50 bills await a vote at the
National Assembly.

Opposition Refuses Sambi's Terms
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


4. (SBU) Opposition leaders representing the islands of Moheli and
Grande Comore, as well as the National Assembly, publicly rejected
Sambi's terms October 5. Wasting no time to reply to the
President's Eid message, an apparently unified opposition refused
talks with the Union government if constitutional revision was on
the agenda. "All talk of the constitution must wait until each
island has had its turn in the rotating presidency," they stated.
Only after Moheli took its turn, they demanded, could an assessment
of the constitution be conducted and changes discussed.


5. (SBU) Our opposition contacts are more convinced than ever that
President Sambi intends to hold a referendum to extend his term in
office, consolidate power, and destroy island "autonomy." National
Assembly Deputies reject Sambi's accusation that laws remain
un-voted; they counter that in fact Sambi's administration has
failed to apply laws that have been passed (the average Comoran
cannot tell who is correct). Said Mchamgama, President of the
Mayors' Association and a vocal opposition leader, said political
parties would unify to defeat a referendum. Diplomatic colleagues
note that some Muslim elders have criticized Sambi, raising concerns
about the President's suspected Shi'ite agenda in Sunni Comoros.


6. COMMENT: At present, the African Union process to create a
Technical Preparatory Committee is blocked. AU Special Envoy
Madeira's plea for Comorans to meet to "discuss what must be
discussed" has been publicly rejected by both sides. The Union
insists on talking constitutional revision and the opposition bloc
rejects it categorically. Thus it appears more likely President
Sambi will call a referendum; he already has a draft revised
constitution, but it is unclear who would pay for yet another
Comoran vote. He can count on support in his native Anjouan, where
his ally is island president. However, political opponents in
Grande Comore and Moheli appear committed to mounting a campaign to
reject the referendum. END COMMENT.

STROMAYER