GROWING OPPOSITION FOCUSED ON CAPITAL FEUD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000644

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MA XW
SUBJECT: GROWING OPPOSITION FOCUSED ON CAPITAL FEUD

REF: A. 07 ANTANANARIVO 001241

B. 08 ANTANANARIVO 00602

C. 08 ANTANANARIVO 00629

ANTANANARI 00000644 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Prompted by the recent involvement of
increasingly higher-profile opposition leaders, President
Ravalomanana and his allies have been forced to publicly
confront growing discontent with the administration, if not
address its causes. In the capital, a nine-month battle
between the city's mayor and the national government reached
temporary respite, only to be undermined the very next day
with a bureaucratic ploy concerning fuel supply to the city
government. On the national level, key opposition leaders
(including former president Zafy) have banded together to
publicly denounce the current regime, while opposition groups
find their requests for demonstrations continually blocked.
It is not clear that the opposition has attracted much
support from the broader public, but continued concerns over
cost of living increases or politically insensitive
maneuvering from the government may well help their cause.
END SUMMARY.

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PRESIDENT VS. MAYOR, ACT SEVEN
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2. (SBU) Over the nine months since Andry "TGV" Rajoelina was
elected Mayor of Antananarivo (ref A),President Ravalomanana
has made little effort to conceal his disdain for his
dynamic, popular, and business-oriented young rival.
Speaking privately as their public feud boiled over during
the week of September 8, TGV's political advisor and former
campaign manager Nirhy-Lanto Andriamahazo asserted that a
well-orchestrated transfer of power from Mayor to Presidency
had unfolded in five distinct acts, starting with the right
to appoint administrative district (fokontany) chiefs earlier
this year. That was followed by an administrative
reclassification of the City of Antananarivo that deprived it
of all financial independence, an assault on authority over
key sporting and transportation infrastructure, and the
unearthing of previous administrations' mysterious "unpaid
debts".


3. (SBU) In early September, the newly-appointed Minister of
Water made a move for the city's sanitation service, SAMVA,
which proved to be one step too far. Respected former PM
Norbert Lala Ratsirahonana stepped in to broker a compromise,
made public on September 12, in which SAMVA and the city's
eastern bus terminal were restored to the city
administration. Widely seen as a victory for the Mayor, it
was short-lived: the following day, the Mayor's office
announced that their fuel contract had been terminated, with
the new one requiring cash payment for all municipal fuel
purchases. After outcry and allegations of interference from
the (national) Ministry of Energy and Mining, the original
contract was restored later in the week. The latest act,
still unfolding, features the Ministry of Development
expropriating land around Antananarivo for as yet
undetermined projects, without waiting for the requisite
permission from city authorities, and without the consent of
the residents and subsistence rice farmers that stand to lose
most.


4. (SBU) The Mayor's small victories over the last week are
eclipsed by his loss of financial control and the power to
appoint district chiefs, and the GOM shows little sign of
ceding on these crucial issues. According to Andriamahazo,
Ravalomanana's campaign against the mayor reflects concern
about Andry TGV's growing popularity in a capital city
political landscape ever more devoid of plausable opponents;
most of the old guard no longer holds power, and has been
left to scheme out of the limelight.

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THE "REAL" OPPOSITION GOES PUBLIC
--------------


5. (SBU) For all of his trouble, Andry TGV has yet to
actually declare himself in "opposition" to Ravalomanana's
government or party (TIM),preferring instead to remain
safely in the "center", along with non-aligned parties such
as Ratsirahonana's AVI. The overt opposition, with such
backers as former president Zafy, has found its voice in

ANTANANARI 00000644 002.2 OF 002


these last few weeks through two groups carefully named to
imply neutrality in the current feud: the "Commitee of
Wisemen" based in Antananarivo, and Ray Aman-dreny (roughly,
"elders"),recently formed in five of the six former
provinces outside Antananarivo. Both have stepped up their
rhetoric of late, with the Committee of Wisemen calling on
the government to respect the people's democratic choice
("let the Mayor do his job"),and Ray Aman-dreny openly
denouncing the government's alleged abuses and calling for
change.


6. (SBU) "Centrist" contacts dimiss both groups as simply
marginalized politicians seeking a route back into power, but
they clearly have the President's attention, and they have
attracted media attention. Opposition rallies have
continually been denied permission in several major cities,
and recent arrests of opposition leaders indicate that the
GOM takes this more seriously than they would like to admit.
The opposition appears to have retreated somewhat this week
"to strategize", since their requests for public
demonstrations have led nowhere.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) While there have not yet been any major public
displays of support for the opposition or its leaders, there
are a number of factors with the potential to boil over.
With the Mayor locked in a struggle against the President,
and the recently organized opposition becoming more unified
and vocal, it may be only a matter of time before increasing
food prices, inflation, or sqabbles over infrastructure begin
to implicate feuding politicians in ordinary peoples'
problems. A protest of last week's land expropriation
attracted only 200 angry villagers, but it was a real issue
affecting daily life that set the government against an
already marginalized group of displeased citizens.


8. (C) Per sources in the opposition and the media, the
President does himself no favors with his allegedly
"dictatorial" style and disdain for consultation; what may
have been a strength in consolidating power and pushing
through key development initiatives is increasingly serving
as the common theme in a diverse and disorganized opposition.
While Andry TGV was initially seen as a protest vote against
rising cost of living and infrastructure problems in the
capital (reftel A),his ongoing feud with the national
government has increased his stock among those seeking change
- even if they don't agree on what exactly that change should
be. While he has yet to ally himself with an opposition
party, or even publicly admit to opposing TIM, he is seen by
some as the only electable opposition to Ravalomanana. Per
Andriamahazo, of the Mayor's office, Ravalomanana,s biggest
mistake was eliminating all of his credible opposition,
leaving the field open last year to an outsider opponent
whose biography has much in common with his own. Although he
remains too young to particate in the next presidential
elections (in 2011),we can expect him to continue providing
focus and substance to an otherwise divided opposition.
MARQUARDT