Comoran Dialogue Process Stumbles Out Of The Gate

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000591

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SPGOV PHUM PREL ECON ASEC CN
SUBJECT: Comoran Dialogue Process Stumbles Out Of The Gate


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Following a week of intense negotiations with
Union of the Comoros officials and other stakeholders, African Union
Special Envoy Madeira succeeded September 1 in achieving an
agreement in principle for modalities to set up a preparatory
committee for the long-awaited Inter-Comoran Dialogue. END
SUMMARY.

International Partners
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2. (SBU) Members of the international community have met regularly
in the last week to align our position regarding the Inter-Comoran
Dialogue. The group includes the African Union, United Nations,
Arab League, La Francophonie, and biQteral missions of France,
China, Libya, South Africa, Madagascar, and the United States. The
members adopted the principle that the Comoros must own the dialogue
process, lest the international community do all the heavy lifting
only to be blamed afterward. In S/E Madeira's words, "we do not
impose, but we are not indifferent."


3. (SBU) The international partners' starting point is the African
Union Inter-Ministerial Declaration of July 8-9, 2007, following
meetings in Cape Town, Pretoria, and Addis Ababa to resolve the
Anjouan crisis. This document serves as a road map for the
inter-Comoran Dialogue, with provisions for reconciliation,
discussion of federal authorities ("competences"),the inclusion of
stakeholders, and the rationalization of the electoral calendar.


4. (SBU) A positive new dynamic in the international meetings is the
presence of a member of the UN Political Department's new "Standby
Team of Mediation Experts" who has added value in our meetings.
With the UN expert and bilateral missions alongside the AU, it
appears the group's legitimacy has been enhanced in the eyes of
Comoran counterparts. UN ResRep Opia Kumah noted that President
Sambi's letter to the UNSYG requesting assistance led to this
increased engagement.

Union of the Comoros
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5. (SBU) In the international partners' initial meeting with Union
of the Comoros Vice President Idi and Foreign Minister Jaffar, the
GOC's message was clear, "President Sambi will keep his promise to
the international community to hold the inter-Comoran dialogue."
Reading between the lines, the GOC is proceeding reluctantly given
their lack of popularity and weak political position. VP Idi
averred, "the institutions we inherited led to the current economic
crisis."


6. (SBU) The GOC continues to guarantee that the principles of
rotating presidency and island autonomy will not be in play during
the dialogue. Interestingly, while Union Ministers met three times
in the last week with the international partners delivering this
kind of assurance, it has been months since they have had direct
contact with the island executives or the national assembly on these
issues. After much arm-twisting by AU S/E Madeira late the evening
of September 1, Union Ministers accepted the notion of convening a
small, inclusive preparatory committee for the inter-Comoran
dialogue. This committee, composed of Union, Island, and Assembly
members will:

-- Name the meeting, (i.e. sovereign conference, dialogue, etc.);

-- Draft terms of reference;

-- Set an agenda;

-- Consider participant lists;

-- Decide where to convene the meeting;

-- Decide when (the Union is aiming for first quarter, 2009);

-- Financing needed;

-- Format;

-- Role of facilitators.


Opposition "Coalition"
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7. (SBU) The National Assembly President invited the international
partners to listen to an "opposition coalition" composed of the
Assembly, political parties, local leaders, and island executives of
Grande Comore and Moheli on August 29. Their tone was suspicious,
insisting the GOC's motive was to prolong Sambi's mandate. Their
unanimous position was to reject any discussion of constitutional
revisions at an inter-Comoran dialogue, insisting that the 2001
Constitution had never been implemented with the necessary
legislation. In their view, the constitution had nothing to do with

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the present crisis, instead they blamed "Union Government
incompetence."


8. (SBU) S/E Madeira deftly parried their refusal, gaining their
approval to participate in the kind of "technical preparatory
committee" outlined above. The committee will be just small enough
to be effective and just big enough to be legitimate.

Next Steps
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9. (SBU) The compromise reached was essentially to reactivate the
inter-Comoran committee on competences which convened briefly in
2006 and 2007 to consider federal issues of security forces, the
judiciary, and management of public enterprises. During September,
this small group of Union, island, legislative, political, and civic
leaders will address the technical questions in para 6 above. In
October, they will publish their proposals to the widest group of
Comoran stakeholders for feedback and hold a series of preparatory
seminars. The hope is that, with active international partner
support, the framework for the inter-Comoran dialogue will emerge
and be validated by the end of 2008.

Comment:
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10. (SBU) The political will for compromise remains weak in the
Comoros. The continued engagement of the AU, UN, and interested
Embassies - and the implicit threat of consequences for inaction -
is the main element keeping this process from falling apart before
it begins. End Comment.

MARQUARDT