Fatigued Comorans Anxious About Ramadan

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000572

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SOCI PGOV PHUM PREL ENRG ASEC CN
SUBJECT: Fatigued Comorans Anxious About Ramadan

REF: ANTAN 531


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Fuel stocks are dwindling without another
shipment confirmed, leading Comorans to fear Ramadan celebrations
will be affected. President Sambi's popularity remains low and is
not helped by his frequent absences. In this context, the GOC will
convene a planning meeting August 28-29 for the eventual
inter-island constitutional conference. END SUMMARY.

Resident Diplomats Concerned
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2. (SBU) The return to "normal" following the recent fuel delivery
to the Comoros will be short-lived (REFTEL). Operators in Moroni
expect fuel stocks to run out before the end of August; no new fuel
shipment is currently expected. According to French Ambassador
Hallande, the Kuwaiti investment group operating in the Comoros have
made USD three million available as of August 25 (it is unclear if
this is loan, grant, or advance on royalties). While this financing
may allow another stop-gap fuel shipment, the actual supply delivery
could take weeks. Ambassador Hallande noted that representatives
from all three island governments had approached him about new
supply contracts with TOTAL; he said he replied that only the Union
government could restore the fuel agreement.


3. (SBU) UNDP ResRep Opia Kumah said he remains in humanitarian
crisis response mode, concerned that fuel shortages, rising food
prices, and potential social unrest could combine for a severe
impact in the coming months. African Union Resident Representative
Mouran Taiti, focused on longstanding political questions, does not
think better governance to improve social conditions will be
possible before the inter-island constitutional conference
delineates the roles and responsibilities of institutions.

Comorans Near Their Breaking Point?
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4. (SBU) Long lines at service stations, electricity rationed to
four hours per day, and related inconveniences have been readily
born by the resilient Comoran population. Limited fuel can be
tolerated, but as we saw last month, the end of supplies brings
public outrage. Civil servants and teachers have not been paid for
months. President Sambi has never before been less popular. Many
Comoran contacts are preoccupied by the coming of Ramadan at the
beginning of September; a period when they traditionally gather as
families and communities in the evenings to break the day-long fast.
With the prospect of having neither fuel for transportation or
electricity, these traditions will be hard to maintain. There is
typically an increase in food prices during Ramadan, which will
exacerbate already elevated prices. There is no indication the
Union Government has the resources to make salary payments before
Ramadan; a period when Comorans often spend three-months salary on
their religious observances.

Preparing For Inter-Island Talks
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5. (SBU) In the midst of recurring energy crises, the Union will
hold preparatory meetings August 28-29 to attempt to determine the
timing, attendance, and agenda of the long-awaited "inter-island
dialogue" to address constitutional, federal, and institutional
problems. The emboldened island presidents, in light of President
Sambi's "incompetence" handling the country's fuel supply, are
expected to stand firm on island autonomy. Ambassador Mourad
reported that no less than 20 "political parties" have registered
with his office, "they represent no one, but they hope get a seat at
the table to share in the spoils."


6. (SBU) AU Special Envoy Francisco Madeira, who has pressured the
Comorans to take this step since the June Anjouan president
election, will be in Moroni to attend the preparatory meetings.
According to Ambassador Mourad, the AU believes President Sambi must
accomplish some kind of clarification and reform of Comoran
federalism during his presidency; even if changes are officially
enacted by his successor in 2010.

Comment:
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7. (SBU) Several prominent political and civic leaders have already
called on Sambi to resign. His campaign promises on housing,
education, and health have been largely unrealized - with the
exception of several Iranian-funded Koranic schools. Sambi's
greatest accomplishment, deposing Bacar and restoring order in
Anjouan, was closely followed by the ill-advised cancellation of the
TOTAL fuel supply contract before any viable replacement was in
place. (He did this immediately after his May visit to Teheran,
where he apparently saw the Iranian offer of unrefined crude - which
the GOC was somehow to have refined in Aden -- as too good to pass
up.) Disenchanted Comorans now hold scant hope that Sambi will
accomplish much in his 19 months left in office; some are openly
suspicious that he will try to move the country toward Muslim

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fundamentalism or Shi'ism. In 2010, they may not expect much
better, with the notable exception of 40,000 Mohelians excited for
their island's turn to run the country.

MARQUARDT