Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ANTANANARIVO439
2008-06-19 14:21:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Antananarivo
Cable title:  

ANJOUAN ISLAND ELECTIONS CALM, RUNOFF SCHEDULED

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM MOPS PHUM CN 
pdf how-to read a cable
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PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0439 1711421
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 191421Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1383
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000439 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, DS/IP/AF
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER
PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MOPS PHUM CN
SUBJECT: ANJOUAN ISLAND ELECTIONS CALM, RUNOFF SCHEDULED

REF: ANTANANARIVO 347 AND PREVIOUS

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000439

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, DS/IP/AF
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER
PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MOPS PHUM CN
SUBJECT: ANJOUAN ISLAND ELECTIONS CALM, RUNOFF SCHEDULED

REF: ANTANANARIVO 347 AND PREVIOUS


1. (U) Official results from the Anjouan island presidential
elections released by the Constitutional Court (CC) on June 18 show
candidates Mohamed Djaanfari and Moussa Toybou well ahead of the
other three candidates. Djaanfari won 44.18 percent of the vote,
while Toybou came in a close second with 40.12 percent. With no
candidate over 50 percent, a runoff election will take place on June

29. Voter turnout was modest at 42.8 percent of the approximately
128,000 registered voters.


2. (U) Observing on the ground in Anjouan, the DCM reported the
first round of island presidential elections on Anjouan June 15 were
free, fair, and transparent overall, with the exception of minor
tension and a late start in ousted Colonel Mohamed Bacar's home
village of Barakani. In addition, claims of irregularities in
Toybou's stronghold of Nioumakele appear to have been upheld by the
CC in overturning the preliminary results that had Toybou ahead by
less than 100 votes. The other three candidates scored well only in
their home villages and all tallied less than five percent of the
votes.


3. (U) International election observers from the Arab League, the
International Organization of the Francophonie, the African Union
(AU),the Indian Ocean Commission, and U.S. Embassy Antananarivo
circulated while Tanzanian, Sudanese and Comoran troops effectively
maintained calm and order. Noting that the process was
characterized by calm and discipline, the head of the AU Commission,
Jean Ping, congratulated the Anjouanese people "for their maturity
during the entire period of the electoral campaign." In a formal
statement issued June 18, Ping also commended the Comoran National
Army, supported by the AU Electoral and Security Assistance Mission
to the Comoros (MAES),for maintaining security throughout the
electoral process; thanked bilateral and multilateral partners for
their financial support for the first round of the election; and
appealed for continued assistance through the second round.


4. (U) Toybou is an engineer, not a politician, believed to be in
his 40s. While Union President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi has not
formally endorsed either candidate, he is widely believed to support
Toybou. Approximately 60 years old, Djaanfari, a retired member of
the French Army now turned businessman with interests in maritime
transport, was a losing candidate in the 2006 elections on Anjouan
for Union President.


5. (SBU) COMMENT: The runoff between Djaanfari and Toybou will
likely be an extremely close call, decided by several variables.
One will be an ability to attract voters from the camps of the three
losers. Another will be an ability to motivate abstaining voters to
come to the polls and produce a less disappointing turnout. We have
no evidence that this election was anything other than free and fair
and expect the sequel to be equally transparent. However,
especially if the outcome is very close, the loser is almost certain
to claim foul. A decisive victory by either candidate would clearly
be preferable at this stage of Comoran democracy to a razor-thin
outcome, but that will be up to the voters to decide... END
COMMENT.
MARQUARDT