DUELING NEW YEARS ADDRESSES IN COMOROS

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000004

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

ADDIS FOR AMBASSADOR COURVILLE
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E RMEDRANO
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS KDEM PHUM PINR CN
SUBJECT: DUELING NEW YEARS ADDRESSES IN COMOROS
REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 1252 AND PREVIOUS


1. (U) In his annual New Year's Eve speech addressing the nation,
Union President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi called the crisis on Anjouan
one of the defining events of 2007. However, he reassured the
people, "the liberation of Anjouan" is due in early 2008; his next
speech will announce the day the National Army will leave for
Anjouan. "The list of soldiers who will go is ready. We will
announce the day, so the Anjouanese population can participate in
this liberation in order to minimize the damage." Outlining a
brighter future on the economic front, Sambi explained he has been
received by many foreign heads of state interested in signing
projects including the construction of ports on all three islands
for a modern ferryboat system, the opening of two to four new banks,
the construction of a large port in Moroni, housing construction,
and geothermal energy studies. Perhaps referring to ongoing
corruption trials surrounding the Indian/Iranian company NICOM,
and/or the actions of Colonel Mohamed Bacar, he also warned citizens
that no one is above the law.

2. (U) One hour later, renegade leader of Anjouan Colonel Mohamed
Bacar opened his melodramatic address to the island with the words,
"We live in a country where the national army is still discussing
whether it should open fire on the same people it is charged with
defending." Calling the island's development his first priority
(although his speech was devoid of any mention of economic progress,
past or future) and the protection of the Anjouanese his first
obligation, he said no concessions to the Union Government are
possible. "I commit myself personally to re-don my military uniform
to face the invading mercenaries."

3. (SBU) Despite escalating tensions, Foreign Minister Jaffar told
journalists that, although a military option against Bacar is not
off the table, the Union Government does not want war in Anjouan.
Chief of the Army Salimou told an Embassy representative that
barring any unforeseen crisis, the Union Government will wait until
African Union (AU) sanctions expire January 25 before taking any
action. In the meantime, National Army soldiers were seen
exercising on a beach near Moroni December 30, under the observation
of President Sambi.

4. (SBU) COMMENT: While Salimou insists the invasion of Anjouan is
not a question of "whether" but "when," Post notes the National Army
woefully lacks the resources to carry out a successful attack.
Despite a donation of boats from Morocco, Salimou said they do not
have enough boats to carry out the attack and are still asking
around for helicopters. An AU meeting is expected in Addis Ababa
January 21, where the apparently limited effectiveness of sanctions
against Anjouan will be discussed. It seems the Union Government is
running out of hope the AU can resolve the problem diplomatically.
END COMMENT.

MARQUARDT