TIM SHARES SENATE WITH TOKEN OPPOSITION LEADERS

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000325

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT: TIM SHARES SENATE WITH TOKEN OPPOSITION LEADERS

REFTEL: ANTANANARIVO 305 AND PREVIOUS


1. (U) Madagascar's new Senate, reduced from 90 to 33 members, is
now official. On April 25, the High Constitutional Court announced
the names of the 22 senators, one for each of the 22 regions, chosen
in indirect elections on April 20; all hail from the ruling TIM
party. In a surprise move -- reflecting what was generally seen
here as TIM overshooting its target -- President Ravalomanana chose
no one officially affiliated with the TIM party in subsequently
appointing the remaining 11 senators. Political observers in the
President's camp are calling his nominations a new "policy of
openness," but critics note that most of the 11 appointed senators
are still closely aligned with the President. However, notable
appointments from the opposition include: Ruffine Tsiranana (head of
the PSD party and daughter of former President Philbert Tsiranana),
Johanita Ndahimananjara from the AVI party, Eliane Rosa Naika (one
of the founders of the dissident wing that split from TIM in 2007),
and Mousa Tahiry (a former ruling AREMA party deputy and current
independent).


2. (U) As expected, the Ministers of Decentralization and Civil
Services and Labor both won senatorial seats in the election. As
the new Senators cannot occupy both posts concurrently, a cabinet
shuffle is expected imminently to fill their posts, and possibly to
shake up several other ministries (REFTELS).


3. (U) The 33 senators are expected to choose the new President of
the Senate on May 13 when Parliament resumes. While observers
speculate current Minister of Decentralization Yvan
Randriasandratriniony is Ravalomanana's favorite to take over the
senate leadership,
former President of the Senate Guy Rajemison and newly elected
Senator Noel Rakotondrambao are also in the running.


4. (SBU) COMMENT: The President's appointment of moderate
opposition figures will do little to appease hardline opposition
leaders who call his move a "fake opening." Already, opposition
Senator Tsiranana has offered to play a moderating role between the
opposing parties. While the President's decision to expand his
nominations beyond the TIM party is laudable, it is a low-risk move
that puts nothing at stake. The long election season finally has
come to a close with TIM firmly in control of the Presidency, most
municipalities, the new "Regional Councils," the National Assembly,
and now the Senate. "Now, it is time for development," the President
asserted in his weekly Sunday evening radio address. END COMMENT.

MARQUARDT