COMOROS QUIET BUT TENSE AS IT PONDERS NEXT STEPS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000257

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ADDIS FOR AMBASSADOR COURVILLE
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E RMEDRANO
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER
PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS KDEM PHUM PINR CN
SUBJECT: COMOROS QUIET BUT TENSE AS IT PONDERS NEXT STEPS

REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 250 AND PREVIOUS


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Following the swearing in of the Interim President
of Anjouan (reftel),African Union (AU) and Union Army troops remain
on alert against potential violence on the island of Anjouan. The
mood in the Comoros is quiet but tense as people await France's
decision regarding the legal treatment of deposed Anjouan leader
Mohamed Bacar. Meanwhile, the Comoran Minister of Defense and the
international community met to discuss "next steps," including the
timing and composition of island presidential elections on Anjouan
and inter-Comoran talks to resolve federalism issues. END SUMMARY.


THE COMOROS QUIET BUT TENSE
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2. (SBU) The mood in the Comoros is quiet but tense as Comorans
await France's decision regarding the legal treatment of Colonel
Mohamed Bacar, currently under protective custody in Reunion. An
official in the President's office told Post, "If France really
wants justice to be done then neither the death penalty nor the
extradition treaty should be the issue." They explained that only
three individuals have faced the death penalty since Comoros'
independence. Further, French "mercenaries" caught attempting a
coup in Moheli several years ago were extradited to France upon
France's request despite the absence of an official extradition
treaty. Union President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi has publicly said the
Government would accept if Bacar and his cronies were handed over to
an international court, such as Arusha or The Hague, for judgment.
Discussions between France and the Union Government are ongoing.

THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY PONDERS NEXT STEPS
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3. (SBU) Meanwhile, in a charged four-hour meeting April 1, the
Union Government (represented by Minister of Defense Mohamed Bacar
Dossar) and the international community started to focus on "what
comes next." The Union Government would like all rounds of
elections on Anjouan completed before the end of May, because it
hopes the International Monetary Fund will consider pardoning
Comoros' debt at its meeting in June. Although the Government has
made no definitive decision whether it will use the candidate list
from Anjouan's botched June 2007 elections, or open it to newcomers,
the Minister noted that some government officials are strongly in
favor of sticking with the original lists in order to expedite the
new elections -- a position applauded by French Ambassador Christian
Job. However, UN Representative Opia Kumah voiced the concern that
"we may be making trouble for ourselves down the road" by not
allowing enough time to revise electoral lists to include new voters
and reopen candidate lists. In order to ensure elections are
perceived as free, fair, and credible, he suggested a longer
timeline (i.e. around June).


4. (SBU) Immediately after elections on Anjouan, the Union
Government wishes to start an inter-Comoran dialogue between the
legitimate representatives of each island, state institutions, and
the National Assembly to address the legal discrepancies regarding
the division of responsibilities and revenue between the Union and
Island Governments. When asked, the Defense Minister said
consulting civil society may be "useful," although he noted they are
quite weak and passive in the Comoros. Dossar explained that
changing the constitution is not the Government's end goal but
amendments can be made via the legal steps stipulated within.
However, he emphasized there are two items that are not up for
debate: the autonomy of the islands and the rotating presidency
among the islands. South Africa and France (via the International
Organization of the Francophonie) offered to assist the Government
in conducting these discussions, but the UN is not likely to be
involved. (NOTE: The UN Representative privately told PolOff he
fears if the "same cast of characters" -- the French and African
Union - steer the discussions, the Comoros will end up back where
they started in 2001. END NOTE.) Public security on Anjouan was
only discussed in the context of the upcoming island elections.
France recommended the AU forces' mandate be extended throughout the
electoral campaign period, while the AU Envoy encouraged South
Africa, Mauritius, Seychelles and Madagascar to participate in the
security and logistical run-up to the elections.

AU CRITICAL OF SOUTH AFRICA; FRANCE TAP DANCES
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ANTANANARI 00000257 002 OF 002




5. (SBU) AU Envoy Madeira and South African Ambassador Mabeta openly
sparred during the meeting. Madeira said everything had gone
according to plan and announced, "We succeeded in showing that we
can undertake military action without dramatic catastrophe." Making
a pointed dig at South Africa, Madeira said, "We were threatened by
people who said we should try to resolve things peacefully. But
those people advancing this argument did not understand that this
country has been at war since its independence... It is legitimate
to use violence to end violence, particularly when you have law and
right on your side." Dripping with sarcasm, he thanked South Africa
for its "constant" position of opposing military action: "When a
country is constant, at least we know what one thinks." By
contrast, the AU was warmly appreciative of U.S. support: "You may
think the U.S. statement [issued March 28] was simple, but it was
grand. When a big power speaks, people listen." He also credited
the U.S. Charge's February 27 participation in the delegation that
issued Bacar his last ultimatum with reinforcing the AU
determination to move forward. Ambassador Mabeta was alone in
maintaining that the military intervention against Anjouan had been
a mistake.


6. (SBU) The French Ambassador gave a lengthy explanation to clarify
the "suspicious" events, including the French helicopter crash on
Anjouan March 23, feeding rumors of tacit French support for Bacar.
Defense Minister Dossar listened silently while the international
community, including Job himself, chuckled. Job formally requested
the Union Government provide a detailed list of human rights
violations committed by Bacar to assist the French agency dealing
with his asylum request.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: Very little has been decided about the logistics
and composition of the upcoming elections on Anjouan, but the Union
Government clearly wants to move as quickly as possible to put these
issues behind it. The AU will organize a meeting of the Peace and
Security Council on/around April 8 to discuss these issues. END
COMMENT.

MARQUARDT