"RAIDS" ESCALATE TO ARMED CONFLICT ON ANJOUAN

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000212

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/FO, AF/E AND AF/RSA MBITTRICK
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E RMEDRANO
DEPT FOR DS/DSS/ITA DROTHSTEIN
DAR ES SALAAM FOR DAO
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS KDEM PHUM PINR CN
SUBJECT: "RAIDS" ESCALATE TO ARMED CONFLICT ON ANJOUAN

REF: ANTAN 200


1. (SBU) Contacts in the Comoros report a Union Army (AND) "raid"
on Anjouan beginning March 15 has turned into a series of battles.
Having reportedly freed eight prisoners and taken two minor
casualties, part of the AND landing force returned to its staging
point in Moheli. However, a small AND contingent appears to have
remained on Anjouan. This group narrowly avoided an ambush March
16, helped by a pro-Union Anjouanese civilian informant. According
to our source, with this warning the AND forces attacked the
ambushing elements of Bacar's militia, killing five. No casualties
were reported on the AND side in this battle; as of this writing, it
appears some number of AND forces remain in Anjouan.


2. (SBU) The same Embassy contact reported that Union President
Sambi signed March 17 an official decree authorizing the AND to
launch the military option.


3. (SBU) Embassy Defense Attache arrived in Moheli, in the Comoros,
to meet with AND Commander Colonel Salimou. The DATT confirmed the
details of the March 15 raid, but did not yet have information to
confirm the report of the averted ambush. DATT noted the March 15
raid on Anjouan was at least the third such operation, following
commando missions on March 10 and 12. Based on DATT reporting and
other Embassy contacts, the AND has captured up to a total of 30 of
Bacar's militia, and has sustained two wounded.

Mbeki and Kiwete
- - - - - - - - -


4. (U) With appreciation for reporting from Pretoria and Dar, among
other posts, on the Anjouan issue, we note an interesting back and
forth in the media between Presidents Mbeki and Kiwete. A March 17
Cape Times article, amidst confused analysis, reported, "President
Thabo Mbeki has now apparently averted an imminent invasion of
Anjouan by federal Comoros government troops backed by an AU force,
and has persuaded AU (and Tanzania) President Jakaya Kikwete to
consider Bacar's offer to hold elections."


5. (SBU) A March 14 article on Independent Online (www.iol.co.za),
offered an opposite take on events from the Cape Times piece, more
closely reflecting reality as we see it. In it, Tanzanian Foreign
Minister Membe is quoted as saying, "There were many opportunities
for a negotiated settlement, but Bacar squandered all those chances.
He is a liar." Confident of swift victory with limited casualties,
FM Membe further said in OIL, "the (military) process is now
irreversible." We defer to Pretoria and Dar to interpret what
Presidents Mbeki and Kikwete actually are thinking.


6. (SBU) Foreign Minister Jaffar called Ambassador on March 13, in
the wake of the first reports of Mbeki's statements from Mauritius
supporting Bacar's "promise" of island elections in May, to say that
the Union would continue on its present course toward invasion and
to reiterate his request for US help; he clearly saw Bacar's gambit
as a ruse and Mbeki's reply as naive and unhelpful.


7. (SBU) Two Malagasy newspapers, Midi and L'Express, ran articles
on the Comoros situation March 17. Midi quoted Union Spokesman and
Education Minister Said Bakar, "It is no longer possible to reopen
negotiations with this man (Bacar). We have launched an operation
to restore order in Anjouan by military force. This operation will
follow its course to the end." L'Express quoted an unnamed Union
official who confirmed, "the AND launched an operation on Anjouan to
free political prisoners, leading to an exchange of fire in which
two Union soldiers were wounded."

MARQUARDT