TURKEY PREPARED TO RECOGNIZE KOSOVAR INDEPENDENCE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000290

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT. FOR EUR/SE, EUR/SCE, AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2018
TAGS: PREL TU RU GG YI AA
SUBJECT: TURKEY PREPARED TO RECOGNIZE KOSOVAR INDEPENDENCE,
AND WILL SEEK TO CALM MOSCOW

REF: A. STATE 14840


B. STATE 13716

C. ANKARA 236

Classified By: PolCouns Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The GOT will recognize an independent Kosovo
soon after the Quint and the U.S. GOT officials remain
uncertain whether Kosovars will declare independence over the
weekend, or merely announce a date on which they will
proclaim their independence. Regardless, they are expecting
an announcement on February 17 at 16:00 local time (14:00
GMT) and hope to learn of Quint and U.S. reaction soon
thereafter. The Turks agree that Kosovo is not a precedent
for other independence movements, like Abkhazia. They
believe the Russians are not serious about recognition of
Abkhazian independence, but are using threats in an attempt
to deter the U.S. and others from moving forward with
recognition of Kosovo. FM Babacan will visit Moscow February
19 and plans to use his meetings there to urge calm and
counsel against Russian overreaction. END SUMMARY


2. (C) DCM delivered Ref A points to MFA Deputy U/S for
Central Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa, and East Asia Unal
Cevikoz February 15 regarding Russian threats to recognize an
independent Abkhazia. Cevikoz agreed that Kosovo is not a
precedent for Abkhazia and described Putin's threats as empty
and merely an attempt to deter recognition of Kosovo. Noting
the effort Russia undertook to secure the right of Sochi to
host the 2014 Winter Olympics, as well as Russia's ongoing
problems with its own independence movements in the Caucasus,
Cevikoz said he does not think it is realistic that Putin
would seriously consider recognition of Abkhazian
independence. FM Babacan will be in Moscow on February 19
and will use the visit to speak frankly with the Russians,
urging them to avoid overreaction on Kosovo. The Turks will
also seek to reassure the Georgians.


3. (C) In a separate February 15 meeting, MFA DDG for Balkans
Hasan Asan reiterated to us Turkey's intention to recognize
independent Kosovo shortly after the Quint and the United
States (Refs B and C). Asan said the Turks expect an
announcement around 1600 local time (1400 GMT) on February 17
from Pristina. What they don't know is whether the
announcement will be a formal declaration of independence, or
an announcement of an intention to proclaim independence on a
specific later date (o/a March 9). Asan said senior GOT
officials, including PM Erdogan and FM Babacan, are anxious
to offer Turkish recognition of Kosovo, adding that MFA has
been urging that they hold back until just after the Quint
and the U.S. announce recognition to avoid the worst of the
expected Serb backlash. The Serbian ambassador in Ankara has
already packed his bags and is preparing to depart for an
indefinite period following announcement of Turkish
recognition. Asan said the GOT has urged the Serbs not to
make the Ambassador's recall a long-term endeavor, based on
the Turks' own experience that lack of ground truth makes it
increasingly difficult to draw accurate conclusions and make
policy decisions.


4. (C) Asan showed us a photo of what he believes will likely
become the new Kosovo flag, an outline of Kosovo in gold, set
on a blue background with six white stars arching above.
Nine tons of flags are being produced by a company in
Istanbul and await delivery to Pristina. Turkish Airlines is
prepared to make the delivery free of charge when given the
go-ahead by the Kosovars. Asan said he would be "camping
out" in the ministry all weekend and will be looking forward
to hearing from us on U.S. intentions. We pledged to pass on
our message of recognition to Asan and the GOT upon receipt
from the Department.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey

WILSON