TURKEY/IRAN: TURKEY EAGER FOR CHANGE IN IRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 001992

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE, NEA/IR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG IR TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY/IRAN: TURKEY EAGER FOR CHANGE IN IRAN
POLICY, URGES US-IRAN DIALOGUE

REF: 07 ANKARA 1417

Classified By: Pol-Mil Counselor A.F. Godfrey, Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: Turkish officials and Think-tankers in
Ankara told Department of State Iranian Affairs Office
Director Todd Schwartz during November 13 meetings that
the U.S. should initiate direct talks with Iran and
signal a willingness to "extend a hand of friendship"
early in the Obama Administration. While convinced that
the goal of Iran's nuclear program is to obtain a nuclear
weapons capability, Schwartz's interlocutors are equally
convinced that the only way to prevent Iran from
attaining its goal is through diplomacy and engagement.
MFA DDG Babur Hizlan told Schwartz Iran has made a
national decision to continue with nuclear enrichment and
additional incentives would not be able to entice Iran to
abandon this policy. He suggested a more fruitful
approach is to allow Iran to engage in uranium
enrichment under strict controls to prevent Iran from
diverting the technology toward a weapons program.
End Summary


2. (C) NEA Director for Iran Affairs Todd Schwartz
visited Turkey November 13-14 to consult with Turkish
officials and opinion leaders on Iran. Schwartz took
pains to ensure his interlocutors understood that the
U.S. valued Turkey's views. Schwartz also made the point
that while the approach to policy issues in the new U.S.
Administration may change, the essentials of U.S. Iran
policy will be consistent: Iran's support of terrorism
and pursuit of nuclear weapons technology will continue
to be opposed by the international community; the U.S.
will continue to count on Turkey to play a leading role
in this effort.

Turkey Ready to Help with Direct US-Iran Talks
-------------- -


3. (C) MFA DDG for South Asia Babur Hizlan told Schwartz
that PM Erdogan offered to facilitate contacts between
the US and Iran because Turkey is in regular contact with
P5 plus 1 capitals as well as with Tehran and is "a
partner that understands both sides better than they
understand each other." Hizlan stressed that while U.S.
engagement in the P5 Plus 1 process -- such as the
Secretary's signature on the June 12 letter to Mottaki
and U/S Burns' participation in the July talks in Geneva
-- is helpful, the Iranians do not consider the EU3
serious partners and want to deal directly with the U.S.
The U.S. continues to pose the greatest threat for Iran
and a "regime guarantee" from the US is essential for
the Iranian leadership. Hizlan noted that an additional
issue that the Iranians will raise in any direct contact
is the status of Iranian "diplomats" detained by U.S.
forces in Iraq.

Substance Important, But Style Counts
--------------


4. (C) Hizlan called Ahmadinejad's congratulatory letter
to Obama a clear signal, and said the letter must have
been prepared "weeks in advance", with approval from
Supreme Leader Khamenei. A discreet, bilateral approach
by the U.S. would be more effective than continuing to
conduct diplomacy "under the international spotlight,"
Hizlan advised, and the US should avoid issuing threats
and deadlines in their dealing with Iran. "The tone you
take when dealing with Iran is key," Hizlan explained.
"They need respect." Ankara-based think-tankers agreed
with the need to use the change of U.S. administrations
to have a fresh start with Iran. Huseyin Bagci, a well-
connected international relations professor at Middle
East Technical University (METU) suggested that
President-elect Obama "extend a hand of friendship" to
Iran on January 21 to signal a real change in U.S.
policy. Bagci also urged the U.S. to reach out to the
Iranian people with much more effective public diplomacy.
Arzu Celalifer, an Iran analyst at Ankara-based
International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO),
agreed and said such a signal would be welcome in Iran.


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Iran A Regional Power
--------------


5. (C) Despite Iran's bad behavior, "It will always be
a regional power," and needs to be recognized as such,
Hizlan stressed. Iran can be quite effective and
helpful or "less than helpful" in the region, as Iran's
activities in Afghanistan have shown. Hizlan argued that
positive engagement with the Iranians can only help
encourage them to do the right thing, especially in areas
where Iranian and Western interests overlap, such as
Afghanistan, where no one wants to see the Taliban
succeed.


6. (C) Turkey has raised concerns about Iran's negative
role in Lebanon, according to Hizlan, but "Turkey does
not talk to Iran about Syria." He called Syria "the
weakest link in the chain" and said it is possible to
pull Syria away from Iranian influence. If this is done,
Hizlan continued, it would change the regional dynamics
and further isolate Iran. Hizlan,s Deputy, Devrim
Ozturk, had met November 12 with Iranian MFA Think-tank
Director Seyyed Mousavi, who told Devrim that Iran has
no position on Turkey,s talks with Syria and Israel.
Hizlan told us that Syria briefs Iran about those talks,
"but only a little. Iran is not happy about the talks."
Mousavi also emphasized to the Turkish MFA that "No
country, even the United States, is Iran,s permanent
enemy." Regarding Hezbollah, Hizlan told Schwartz that
Turkey sees the movement as "a Lebanese force that
receives support from Iran, but is popular and delivers
important public services."

"Iran,s Political System for Iran to Decide"
--------------


7. (C) Hizlan underscored Turkey,s view that Iran,s own
political system is something only Iranians can decide
to change. "They have always had some form of theocratic
rule; the clerics had great influence even under the
Shah." He noted that Iran reacts negatively to external
criticism of its human rights record, but that at the
same time, it is making small progress on important
issues, like moving to outlaw child executions (comment:
with notable exceptions). He discouraged USG efforts to
work with elements of Iranian civil society, arguing that
such contacts put reform-minded Iranians at great risk.

Iran Won't Back Down on Enrichment
--------------


8. (C) Hizlan predicted that a key sticking point
in any U.S.-Iran dialogue is Iran's nuclear program;
Iran has made a national decision to pursue nuclear
enrichment technology, and no amount of additional
incentives will entice Iran from pursuing this goal.
In talks with President Gul during the August visit
to Istanbul, Ahmedinejad had hinted at a willingness
to begin the "freeze-for-freeze" process, but had
expressed concerns about what would happen if Iran
remains unwilling to give up enrichment altogether.
Hizlan claimed Ahmedinejad thought Iran would be worse
off if it began the "freeze-for-freeze" process but
was not able to move beyond this initial phase.
Hizlan recommended that the US consider an end state
in which Iran is allowed to have limited enrichment
capability, under the strictest international control.
Turkey does not want a nuclear-capable Iran on its
doorstep, Hizlan said, but Iran has legitimate rights
under the NPT and Turkey can live with Iran having
enrichment technology if it is under what he called
"Additional Protocol Plus" controls. He suggested that
the two sides might be able to have a useful
discussion, starting again with the "freeze for
freeze" proposal, after the June elections.


9. (C) Turkish General Staff (TGS) Division Chief for
Foreign Relations and International Security Cooperation
Major General Metin Cetin told Schwartz that the Turkish
military agrees "Iran is a threat". The TGS is convinced
that the goal of Iran's nuclear program is to obtain a
nuclear weapons capability, and that Iran is within

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several years of acquiring this capability. He called
Iran,s enrichment program a strategic threat that
disturbs the regional balance. "We are doing as much
as we can to press Iran to stop seeking WMD
technologies." However, the TGS does not believe there
is a feasible military solution to prevent Iran from
obtaining its goal. Cetin urged that the USG try "direct
engagement" before seeking new international sanctions
against Iran.


10. (C) Cetin explained that the UN sanctions regime
on Iran precludes the TGS from seeking closer military-
to-military ties with Iran. "We cooperate on border
security, anti-trafficking, and counter-terrorism" but
there are no high-level military contacts or exchanges.
Regarding counter-terrorism cooperation, Cetin
confirmed that they do not undertake joint operations,
but rather exchange information to de-conflict their
separate operations against the PKK and PJAK.

Energy and Trade Important for Turkey-Iran Relations...
-------------- --------------


11. (C) MFA's Hizlan told Schwartz that Turkey's
reliance on external energy sources is a reality and
that the only viable alternative to Russia is Iran,
which currently provides 17 percent of Turkey's
natural gas. He also noted Turkey and Iran relies on
each other to access markets in Central Asia and
Europe, respectively. Bilateral trade with Iran will
likely reach $10 billion in 2008; Iran's energy
exports to Turkey represent over 80 percent of this
trade volume.

.. And Can Be Catalyst for Change in Iran
--------------


12. (C) Informal advisor to the Energy Ministry Faruk
Demir (protect) echoed Hizlan's assessment and said
Turkey and Iran's energy partnership is necessary and
will continue. According to Demir's forecast, Turkey's
natural gas demand will increase by an additional 30
BCM by 2025; gas from Iran, along with Russia,
Azerbaijan, Iraq and Turkmenistan will help meet this
rise in demand. Similarly, the EU will likely need
over 120 BCM of gas by 2025. Russia, even with its
attempt to control supplies in the Caspian Basin, will
not be able to meet this demand alone. The EU will
likely look to Iran to meet as much as 40 percent of
its demand. Turkey wants to help link Iran to Europe.
"This means investing heavily in Iran,s gas
infrastructure by 2015. Iran is an energy player that
we will need to work with in coming years. But we
need to start preparing now." Demir posited that trade
with Iran will help liberalize Iran's market, bring
western-oriented market functions and values to Iran,s
economy, and possibly moderate the Iranian government's
behavior. He believes as economic conditions improve
in Iran, there will be more demand for change that the
West would find positive. Demir recommended that the
USG "shake hands with Iran, even as you are squeezing
with the other hand. That,s what the Iranians
themselves do."

All Eyes on June Elections
--------------


13. (C) MFA,s Hizlan predicted that Iran will not be
able to take any dramatic steps in its relationship
with the US before the June 2009 presidential
elections, as no one wants to appear weak during the
campaign season. Despite bad economic conditions in
Iran and the Majles,s impeachment of Interior Minister
Kordan, Hizlan saw no credible rival able to challenge
Ahmedinejad at this point. Whether someone can defeat
Ahmedinejad will depend on where Khamenei stands -- he
has yet to endorse Ahmadinejad nor has he indicated
a desire to see someone replace him. "The reformists
are waiting to see what (former President) Khatami
does, because they know Karroubi is not electable.
Among the others (GHALIBAF, Ruhani) there may be a
credible alternative to Ahmadinejad. The maneuvering

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is already happening now." Hizlan cautioned any US
attempts to take sides in the upcoming election as
any politician suspected of receiving US support
will be labeled a "US stooge".


14. (C) ISRO's Celalifer agreed that the key will be
whether Khamenei allows a legitimate rival to emerge
in opposition to Ahmadinejad, but believed the
moderate conservatives have learned their lesson from
the last election and will work hard to present one
candidate to avoid splitting the vote among their
supporters.

Nonproliferation
--------------


15. (C) Hizlan assured Schwartz that Turkey fully
supports efforts to prevent proliferation sensitive
shipments between Iran and Syria and have worked
closely with the US on these cases. He reminded
Schwartz that the key to successful cooperation is
timely and accurate intelligence. He notes that
there have been few reports of such shipments, and
credits Turkey's own initiative and the good
cooperation between the US and Turkey for the
decline. Although Iran denied any role in the
weapons shipment aboard a train originating from
Iran and bound for Syria that was uncovered after
the train had derailed as a result of a PKK attack
in May 2007 (reftel),Turkey has now implemented
random searches of all truck and rail cargo from
Iran.


16. (U) NEA/IR Schwartz did not have an opportunity
to review this cable.

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