(C) MINISTER SIMSEK ASKS USG HELP TO MODERATE IMF

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001920

SIPDIS

NSC FOR DANIEL PRICE
TREASURY FOR U/S MCCORMICK AND LESLIE HULL
EEB FOR JONATHAN KESSLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2018
TAGS: EFIN PREL TU
SUBJECT: (C) MINISTER SIMSEK ASKS USG HELP TO MODERATE IMF
FISCAL DEMANDS

REF: ANKARA 1855

Classified By: Economic Counselor Dale Eppler for reasons 1.4 b and d


1. (C) Summary: In a November 5 meeting with Ambassador
Wilson, Treasury Minister Simsek asked the USG to intercede
with the IMF to moderate its demands for a new program with
Turkey. Simsek said the GOT sees a Precautionary Stand-By
Agreement as an anchor for private sector expectations, but
the Fund is being intransigent in demanding greater fiscal
adjustment that could push Turkey into recession. The
problem Turkey faces is not public sector debt but private
sector liquidity. If the GOT cannot reach agreement with the
IMF, Simsek said he would like to explore opening a Federal
Reserve swap line with the Turkish Central Bank as a
substitute anchor. Failing either of these, the GOT will
seek swap lines with the Gulf States or other countries.
Simsek indicated these were issues he would like to discuss
with Treasury Secretary Paulson in a requested pull-aside
during the upcoming G-20 Financial Summit. End summary.

2. (C) Simsek said when the last IMF Stand-By Agreement ended
in May, the GOT and IMF agreed that Turkey would not need IMF
funding for the public sector in 2009. The Fund confirmed
that conclusion in August when it completed its Post Program
Assessment and a Post Program Evaluation. Simsek said at
that point, he sent a letter to the Fund, outlining the GOT's
Medium Term Fiscal Framework and reform agenda, and suggested
these as the basis for discussing a Precautionary Stand-By
Agreement. The IMF, however, sent a list of additional
reforms it wanted to see in a new program and said that the
2008 fiscal target would have to increase by 0.5% of GDP
because the GOT failed to meet its 2007 fiscal target.

3. (C) Subsequently, the IMF said there was a "major
discrepancy" in the 2009 budget that would require additional
fiscal adjustment. The "discrepancy" was that the IMF
projected Turkey's 2009 GDP growth at only 3% versus the GOT
budget assumption of 4%. Each 1% of GDP represents somewhere
between YTL 2 and 4 billion. Simsek suggested bridging this
gap by linking 15% of revenue to meeting quarterly fiscal
performance criteria (i.e., if the GOT failed to meet its
fiscal target in the first quarter, 15% of second quarter
funding would be withheld). But the Fund said no to this
proposal, and continued to ask for more fiscal adjustment.

4. (C) The Fund team that came in October (see reftel)
demanded additional fiscal adjustment because the IMF had
lowered its 2009 growth estimate further, to 2%. Simsek said
no government can budget based on changing forecasts. The
2009 budget assumes 4% growth and has been submitted to
Parliament. The team also asked for greater fiscal
adjustment because of unpaid debt accrual by municipalities,
and rejected the GOT proposal to fix this going forward with
municipal finance reform.

5. (C) The next issue was the consolidated public sector
deficit. Simsek noted that 80% of the remaining public
sector enterprise assets are in the energy sector, which is
in the midst of a privatization process. In July, the
automatic gas and electricity pricing mechanism went into
effect, paving the way for additional privatizations that
will substantially reduce the consolidated public sector
deficit. Instead of being pleased that this mechanism
finally went into effect (albeit in July),the Fund demanded
yet more spending cuts to make up for missing the 2008
consolidated public sector target. Simsek said the Prime
Minister was "very angry" about the Fund's "unreasonable"
positions, such as suggesting the GOT abolish the Turkish
Grain Board to save money.

6. (C) Ambassador Wilson asked what the IMF Team's response
was to Simsek's arguments. Simsek said the Fund team told
him that because Turkey did not meet its 2007 or 2008 primary
fiscal surplus targets, the Fund needs significant, upfront
fiscal adjustment for any new program to be credible. They
also argued that if the GOT has a tighter budget, it means
less borrowing and thus more money available for the private
sector. But Simsek said the issue is not debt, but FX
liquidity. Turkey,s debt payment burden is small. The GOT
will need to pay about $4 billion in foreign currency debt
next year. Over the next 15 months, the corporate sector
needs about USD $10.6 billion in FX funding ($3.6 billion in
the remainder of 2008 and about $7 billion next year).

7. (C) Ambassador Wilson said Turkey should try to reach an
agreement with the IMF as a form of insurance, even if it
does not intend to use it. Simsek agreed, saying the GOT
sees value in an IMF Precautionary Stand-By Agreement as a
way to anchor private sector confidence, not as a source of
funding. But he does not believe they can reach agreement
with the current IMF team. Simsek does not believe Turkey

needs such a large primary fiscal surplus and argued that the
IMF's proposed spending cuts and tax increases would push
Turkey into a recession. This could undermine the financial
health of Turkish banks. Simsek noted that Turkey is one of
the few major economies in the world that has not needed a
banking or corporate sector bailout, and should not be
treated as if it were Iceland, Hungary or Ukraine.

8. (C) Simsek said he would talk with the IMF again while in
Washington for the G-20 Financial Summit. But he also would
like to talk with USG officials about interceding with the
Fund to moderate its demands. If Turkey cannot reach a deal
with an "intransigent" IMF, Simsek said he would like to
explore the possibility of the Federal Reserve opening a swap
line with the Turkish Central Bank. Simsek emphasized that
he was not making a formal request for a swap line, but
thought a swap agreement with the Fed could replace the IMF
as an anchor of confidence. Failing either of these, Turkey
will seek a swap agreement with the Gulf States or other
countries. Simsek indicated these were issues he would like
to discuss with Secretary Paulson in the pull aside he has
requested during the G-20 Financial Summit in Washington.

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WILSON