Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ANKARA1916
2008-11-05 09:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

TURKEY: PRO-KURDISH DEMOCRATIC SOCIETY PARTY

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU 
pdf how-to read a cable
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INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
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RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-3/J-5//
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001916 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: PRO-KURDISH DEMOCRATIC SOCIETY PARTY
POISED TO MAKE ELECTORAL GAINS IN SOUTHEAST

REF: ADANA 43

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, reasons 1.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001916

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: PRO-KURDISH DEMOCRATIC SOCIETY PARTY
POISED TO MAKE ELECTORAL GAINS IN SOUTHEAST

REF: ADANA 43

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary and comment: The symbolism of victory in the
March 2009 local elections is helping fuel the rapidly rising
tension and violence in Turkey's Southeast (reftel). PM
Erdogan's repeated visits to the region in recent weeks are
part of the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP's)
strategy to improve on its tremendous success in 2007
parliamentary elections, when it surprised many observers by
capturing 55 percent of the votes in the overwhelmingly
Kurdish region. AKP leaders in the region believe their
party's reputation for efficiently running municipalities,
delivering services, and building infrastructure will help
them retain their current mayorships and accomplish the
significant symbolic feat of besting the pro-Kurdish
Democratic Society Party (DTP) in its stronghold of
Diyarbakir. DTP, fearful of a defeat that would show AKP's
2007 victory was no mere aberration, has been energizing its
base for the past year and is now ramping up protests to
provoke harsh reactions by police and create voter sympathy
for DTP. Though many southeastern residents resent such
divisive tactics, their disillusionment with AKP's failure to
meet its promises to address the Kurdish issue outweighs
their disappointment with DTP. In the Southeast, the Kurdish
issue trumps all, and barring the very unlikely event of a
major policy shift by AKP, DTP appears poised to perform
strongly in local elections. End summary and comment.

--------------
AKP Eyes "Fortress" of Diyarbakir
--------------


2. (C) AKP leaders in Diyarbakir, Sanliurfa, and Mardin told
us performing well in the Southeast in March 2009 local
elections is a critical part of AKP's strategy to improve on
its tremendous success in July 2007 national elections, when
the party won 55 percent of the vote in the region.
Diyarbakir Chairman Ahmet Fikret Ocal told us that winning
the Diyarbakir metropolitan mayorship is at the center of
AKP's quest to demonstrate that it is the party of all of

Turkey. Though the party is still carefully vetting possible
candidates, Ocal said he is confident of a victory that will
shatter DTP's notion that Diyarbakir is its "fortress." Ocal
told us voters' main concern in local elections is
unemployment and the quality of municipal administration. He
said DTP had failed to improve ailing infrastructure and
services in Diyarbakir city and 12 sub municipalities, while
AKP's reputation for competent municipal management would
give it an electoral boost. Ocal thought that AKP's thorough
door-to-door campaign would help it win 10 of Diyarbakir
province's 13 mayorships and increase its 19 Provincial
General Assembly seats to over 30.


3. (C) Sanliurfa Provincial Party Chairman Ahmet Esref
Fakibaba and Mardin AKP Mayor Metin Pamukcu assured us AKP
would retain those mayorships in both cities and would expand
their already large majorities in their Provincial General
Assemblies and Municipal Assemblies. Both said their
constituents rank job creation as the top issue in local
elections. AKP's record of strengthening development in the
region and improving municipal services would also allow the
party to retain its mayorships in the key cities of Van,
Siirt, and Bitlis.


4. (C) DTP's efforts to ratchet up tension will backfire,
according to these AKP contacts. Ocal told us that "our
citizens know that DTP is carrying out a campaign based on
fear and terror." It was common knowledge that DTP and the
PKK had used threats to force shopkeepers to close their
shops during PM Erdogan's recent visit and coordinated a shut
down of trash pick-up and other local services. Meanwhile,
according to Ocal, AKP is working to meet people's essential
needs by providing the poor with food and coal, and working
to create financial incentives to bring investment and
development to the region. Fakibaba agreed that DTP's
"violent methods" would alienate voters. In a separate
discussion in Ankara November 3, opposition Nationalist
Action Party (MHP) MP Tugrul Turkes told us that DTP appears
determined to polarize the Southeast electorate to boost its

ANKARA 00001916 002 OF 003


electoral prospects. Turkes was dubious this tactic would
succeed.

-------------- -
DTP Plans to Capitalize on Discontent with AKP
-------------- -


5. (C) DTP's Diyarbakir Provincial Chairman Nejdet Atalay
told us AKP's predictions were wildly off the mark. March
2009 elections would be a referendum on AKP's policies, and
AKP would lose much ground due to its failure to address
southeastern voters' primary concern: the Kurdish issue.
According to Atalay, many southeastern citizens were
optimistic following PM Erdogan's 2005 public acknowledgment
of the Kurdish problem and voted for AKP in 2007
parliamentary elections due to a perception that AKP was a
"victim" of state pressure. Following elections, AKP failed
to take concrete steps to solve the Kurdish problem and
cozied up to the military. Abdullah Demirbas, the former DTP
mayor of the Diyarbakir Sur sub-municipality, told us that
after 2007 elections AKP had demonstrated its fundamental
intolerance by pursuing its own narrow interests such as
ending the headscarf ban, to the detriment of enacting
democratic reforms that would have benefited all of Turkey.
The PM's recent verbal attacks against Diyarbakir business
owners for closing their shops to protest his visit were a
sign of his fundamental intolerance and showed he is out of
touch with the reality of the Southeast, Demirbas thought.


6. (C) Atalay and Demirbas categorically denied the AKP-held
(and increasingly popular public) belief that DTP wants to be
closed by the Constitutional Court in order to garner voter
sympathy. Atalay acknowledged that closure would create
sympathy in the short term but said DTP believes closure will
be detrimental to Turkey's democracy and quash chances for a
peaceful solution to the Kurdish problem. Atalay believes
voters will see through such "dirty political tactics" by
AKP.


7. (C) According to Atalay, voter realization of AKP's
insincerity, along with DTP's hard work to motivate voters,
would propel his party to win mayorships in at least 11 of
Diyarbakir's districts and increase DTP's representation in
the provincial general assembly and municipal assemblies.
Demirbas said AKP stands "zero chance" of winning Diyarbakir.
Both leaders predicted DTP will win back the AKP-run
municipalities of Siirt, Van, Bitlis, and possibly Kars.
Demirbas believes the Constitutional Court will attempt "to
cause maximum disarray in the party" by closing DTP
immediately prior to elections but told us DTP will still
perform strongly due to its preparations to "minimize the
Court's disruptive efforts." He said these preparations
include forming the backup "Peace and Democracy Party" (BDP)
and selecting alternate candidates, who would not be subject
to a prospective political ban should the party be closed, to
run for important offices.

--------------
Many Voters Disappointed With Both Options
--------------


8. (C) Many voters in the Southeast are fed up with both AKP
and DTP as tensions in the region rapidly mount (reftel),
according to several intellectual contacts. Altan Tan, a
prominent Kurdish writer from Diyarbakir, told us that
ordinary people are frustrated with DTP's tactics of stirring
up tension in order to garner electoral support. Tan said
that during PM Erdogan's recent visit to Diyarbakir, one-half
of the approximately 90 percent of shopowners who closed
their stores did it out of fear of PKK repercussions, not
because they support DTP. These shopowners represent a
majority of citizens who want a solution but are living
"between two fires." Yilmaz Akinci, a reporter for NPR and
Al-Jazeera, agreed that many shopowners resented having to
close out of fear. He explained that to a poor barber in
Diyarbakir, "losing just one shave has a very real economic
impact." President of the Cizre Chamber of Commerce Adnan
Elci told us DTP's tactic of urging people to protest by
burning tires and cars, throwing rocks, and fomenting
violence was counterproductive and would hurt the party in
elections.

ANKARA 00001916 003 OF 003




9. (C) Voter discontent with AKP is likely to outweigh
frustration with DTP in local elections, according to these
contacts. Elci told us that prior to the 2007 elections, AKP
had acknowledged the Kurdish issue and made promises to
resolve it, but markedly shifted its view due to the pressure
of Islamists and nationalists within the party. Voters in
turn soured on AKP, Elci said. Tan told us that by failing
to follow through on promises to address the Kurdish issue,
AKP had missed a genuine opportunity to relegate DTP to near
irrelevance. "If AKP had done half of what they had
promised, they would be poised to sweep elections in the
Southeast," he said. Tan believes that many prominent
Kurdish independent thinkers have concluded that, "AKP has
expired."


10. (C) The strong disappointment and disillusionment with
AKP will resonate strongly with voters, according to these
contacts. They believe AKP will retain the more
traditionally conservative cities, such as Mardin, Sanliurfa,
and Bingol, but that DTP stands a strong chance of winning
back the AKP-controlled cities of Siirt, Van, and possibly
Kars. In the critical symbolic race for the "fortress" of
Diyarbakir, all agreed DTP will come out on top.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey

WILSON