TURKEY: AKP EYES SECULAR STRONGHOLD OF IZMIR IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001831

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: AKP EYES SECULAR STRONGHOLD OF IZMIR IN
MARCH 2009 LOCAL ELECTIONS

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary and comment: The Aegean jewel of Izmir,
Turkey's third largest city, is at the heart of the ruling
Justice and Development Party's (AKP's) quest to dominate
March 2009 local elections by besting its July 2007
parliamentary election performance, when it captured 47
percent of the nationwide vote. The well-organized and
politically savvy AKP is targeting Izmir's poor and growing
middle class areas in its effort to defeat the incumbent
Republican People's Party (CHP) metropolitan mayor and
dramatically increase AKP seats in the provincial general
assembly and municipal assemblies. CHP leaders, citing a
recent regional poll that put CHP support at 62 percent and
AKP's 25 percent, are confident Izmir's "western-oriented
voters" will re-elect the CHP mayor and hand AKP a resounding
all-around defeat. Opposition Nationalist Action Party
(MHP),portraying itself as the party that will unite Izmir,
seeks a dark-horse victory. Several civil society and
business leaders told us CHP is overconfident given the two
decades of high immigration to Izmir that has steadily tipped
the demographic scale in AKP's favor. These contacts believe
corruption allegations against AKP will help CHP retain the
metropolitan mayorship but will not prevent AKP from
performing strongly in other races. Though recent national
polls have shown a drop in AKP support, Prime Minister
Erdogan's party has proved before that it cannot be
underestimated at this stage in an electoral race. End
summary and comment.

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CHP's Social Democratic Stronghold at Stake
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2. (C) During a recent visit to Izmir, a city that is as
well known for its progressive nature and history of social
tolerance as for its proximity to breathtaking beaches, Kadir
Sivaci, editor-in-chief of the regional newspaper "Yeni
Asir," described why the city is a key battleground in March
2009 local elections. Sivaci told us that the main
opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) has held the Izmir
metropolitan municipal mayorship for the past decade and
believes the city is a "fortress of social democracy" that
AKP will never fully breach. AKP sees the Izmir mayorship as
eminently winnable because it has been undergoing fundamental
demographic and social change as immigrants from
traditionally conservative Anatolian cities move to the city.
AKP believes that if it successfully taps into this voter
base it can defeat CHP in its last political stronghold,
according to Savici. At the same time, AKP believes that by
winning Izmir and the three other metropolitan municipalities
(cities with more than 750,000 residents) it has yet to win
-- Diyarbakir, Mersin, and Eskisehir -- it will demonstrate
it represents all of Turkey.


3. (C) Amnesty International Izmir President Taner Kilic told
us there are two Izmirs: the coastal area dominated by CHP
supporters and the inland area made up of the poor and middle
class immigrants. AKP had made major gains in Izmir in 2004
local elections and 2007 parliamentary elections by
skillfully targeting the inland residents. In 2004, AKP won
32 percent of the provincial general assembly vote, compared
to CHP's 35 percent. In 2007 AKP pulled even with CHP when
each party won 9 of Izmir's 24 parliamentary seats (MHP won 4
and DSP 2). By again focusing its campaign on the growing
number of residents who compose the inland region, Kilic
believes AKP will perform well in elections for the
provincial general assembly, municipal assemblies, and
sub-provincial mayorships.

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CHP Brimming With Confidence in Izmir
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4. (C) CHP Izmir Provincial Chairman Kemal Karatas told us
CHP will hold Izmir, a province it has dominated politically
for the past decade. Recounting how Izmir residents showed
their "strong opposition to AKP during patriotic rallies" in
the lead up to 2007 presidential and parliamentary elections,
he predicted CHP would easily win the metropolitan mayorship.
Karatas said he felt "relaxed and comfortable" following an

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October 15 KONDA poll that showed 62 percent of Izmir voters
would support CHP, 25.7 percent AKP, 6.3 percent MHP, and 6
percent other parties. (Comment: the KONDA poll distributes
undecided voters based on a prediction of how they will vote,
a common but dubious statistical method used in many Turkish
polls. End comment.) He is also confident CHP will increase
the party's seats in the provincial general assembly,
municipal assemblies, and win at least 28 of 30
sub-provincial mayorships. (Note: CHP currently holds 18 of

28. Recent GOT legislation that CHP is challenging in the
Constitutional court created two new sub-provinces. End
note.) CHP Deputy Provincial Chairman Mahmut Ozcift assured
us CHP would win all 30.


5. (C) Karatas explained that Izmir is a "western-oriented
social democratic province" where voters are most concerned
with maintaining the progressive character of the city.
Deputy Mayor Ali Karaman told us that the unique social
democratic outlook of Izmir voters, combined with greater
media exposure of AKP corruption, will assure CHP a strong
victory, "even if AKP uses its favorite tactic of wooing poor
voters by handing out food, coal, and other financial
incentives." Karatas allowed that "there is always a chance
of a surprise." But he believes AKP's involvement in
corruption, a weak economy, and the secular nature of Izmir
would lead to AKP's resounding defeat in Izmir.

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AKP Strategically Targeting Izmir's Growing Middle Class
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6. (C) AKP Izmir Provincial Chairman Aydin Sengul told us
performing well in Izmir is a critical part of AKP's strategy
to improve on its tremendous success in July 2007 national
elections. From the party's office in a industrial
middle-class area of town, Sengul told us CHP naively
perceives Izmir as its political fortress. He noted that two
center-right parties -- the True Path Party (DYP) and the
Motherland Party (ANAP) -- had governed the metropolitan
municipality during the 1980's and 1990's. According to
Sengul, Izmir voters showed that they recognized CHP had
poorly managed the city, by sharply criticizing the mayor's
failure to lower the high level of arsenic in the water
supply. AKP plans to tap into this voter discontent, as well
as the high number of immigrants who have come to Izmir from
Anatolia during the past decade, Sengul said.


7. (C) Sengul told us AKP's primary goal is to win the
metropolitan mayorship so that it can control the purse
stings necessary to improve the provision of public services.
Winning would also demonstrate Izmir voters understand AKP
is working for all of Turkey and has no "hidden agenda."
Sengul said AKP's secondary goal is to surpass its provincial
general assembly vote total in 2004 local elections, when it
received 32 percent to CHP's 35 percent. AKP views the
provincial general assembly elections as a refereundum on its
rule because "Turks vote for these bodies based on a party's
national governance," according to Sengul. AKP also hopes to
more than double the seven sub-provincial mayoral seats it
holds in Izmir's 30 sub-provinces, and significantly increase
its presence in municipal assemblies, where it currently
holds approximately 35 percent of seats compared to CHP's 45
percent. Noting the importance voters attribute to
candidates' personalities in local elections, Sengul said he
and his team are carefully vetting candidates.


8. (C) Sengul was unfazed by the low numbers in the KONDA
poll. He thought these may reflect temporary voter
uncertainty after recent PKK terrorist attacks, the global
economic crisis, and allegations over AKP corruption. Though
AKP's own internal polls show AKP is doing much better than
the KONDA poll suggests, Sengul said he believes it is too
early for any polls to serve as a reliable indicator. The
ultimate result, he believes, depends on how well AKP can tap
into the poor and growing middle class voter base and counter
the attacks expected to consistently come from media outlets
loyal to CHP.

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MHP Comfortable With Dark Horse Status
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9. (C) MHP Provincial Chairman Musavat Dervisoglu told us his
party would pull off a surprise victory by capitalizing on
voter dissatisfaction with AKP and CHP. Dervisoglu, the
front-runner to be MHP's candidate for metropolitan mayor,
said Izmir voters were fed up with the local CHP
administration's failure to deliver on promises of clean
water and better highways. He said voter support for AKP had
dropped because the Deniz Feneri (Lighthouse) scandal had
caused voters to "wake up" to the extent of AKP corruption
and the party's failure to adequately address PKK terrorism.
Dervisoglu also noted that AKP underestimated the extent to
which the global economic crisis will hit a Turkish economy
that already has high unemployment, a large current account
deficit, and that is "built on speculation."


10. (C) Izmir voters recognize that CHP and AKP are pursuing
divisive tactic of targeting only segments of Izmir voters,
according to Dervisoglu. MHP will explain that it is the
only party that will unite all Izmir residents behind the
"common Turkish values" that is the party's mantra. The
dozen energized deputies who joined Dervisoglu in our meeting
told us they are determined to carry out an extensive
door-to-door public outreach campaign to explain MHP's
policies and commitment, and to overcome the lack of deep
pockets and media connections possessed by AKP and CHP.

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Personalities and National Policies Key
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11. (C) "Yeni Asir's" Savici told us Izmir voters follow the
nationwide pattern of placing great importance on the
personalities of candidates in local elections but are
somewhat unique because they also give great weight to a
party's national platform and performance. Savici said the
focus on national issues was demonstrated by Izmir voters
continuing support of CHP despite the mayor's lackluster
performance in dealing with the issues of polluted water and
highway construction. Jak Kaya, a prominent businessman who
also leads Izmir's Jewish community, agreed that voters will
focus on personalities and the party's performance on the
important issues of the day: terrorism, corruption, and the
economy.


12. (C) Kaya, a friend and supporter of the mayor told us CHP
will win the metropolitan mayorship but that the race will be
much tighter than the KONDA poll suggests. He believes
Izmir's changing demography ensures AKP will perform well in
the races for the provincial general assembly, municipal
assemblies, and sub-provincial mayorships. Savici too
expects AKP to perform much better than the KONDA poll
predicts. He told us the corruption scandals that had hurt
AKP in recent national polls would affect Izmir local
elections as well, but cautioned that it is much too early to
count out "a well-organized AKP that is determined to win
Izmir."

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