TURKEY: CORRUPTION DEBATE FORESHADOWS A TENSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001723

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: CORRUPTION DEBATE FORESHADOWS A TENSE
POLITICAL SEASON

REF: ANKARA 1643

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary and comment: Following a week of fast-flying
accusations during which opposition Republican People's Party
(CHP) whip Kemal Kilicdaroglu accused ruling Justice and
Development Party (AKP) Vice Chairman Dengir Mir Firat of
being a "drug baron" and Firat called Kilicdaroglu a
"slanderer," the two political heavyweights came together for
a September 25 live televised debate in Parliament. The
debate, judged a draw by most analysts, brought out few new
revelations and was seen as a continuation of CHP's effort to
chip away at AKP's support by associating the party with
cases of corruption, such as the Deniz-Feneri (Lighthouse)
scandal in Germany (reftel). Having lost the AKP closure
case battle, CHP believes continuing to pound AKP on
corruption will weaken the party in the lead up to March 2009
local elections. The debate foreshadows a tense political
season, kicked off when Parliament officially opens on
October 1, during which protracted battles over corruption
and a preoccupation with upcoming local elections are likely
to distract MPs from tackling critical EU-related reforms
outlined in the government's Third National Plan. End
summary and comment.

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Political Heavyweights Debate Corruption Charges
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2. (U) Speaking to a room overflowing with reporters,
parliamentarians, and staffers, as well as to millions of
nationwide viewers who crowded into coffee shops and
restaurants to catch a glimpse of the debate, Kilicdaroglu
claimed Firat, while a partner at the MENAS company, was
complicit in export fraud and drug trafficking. Kilicdaroglu
presented a document he said showed the Council of State
fined MENAS for using fake export invoices for goods sent to
Ukraine, and asserted that Firat helped promote two
bureaucrats who had helped him bury allegations of export
fraud. Addressing his drug trafficking claim, Kilicdaroglu
explained that after inspectors found heroin in a MENAS truck
on February 27, 2008, Firat signed a letter to the Customs
General Directorate requesting it not search MENAS trucks.


3. (U) Firat responded by saying he had resigned as a partner
in MENAS on July 1, 2007, prior to the drug seizure. Though
he waited eight months to hand in the notice, he had
transferred his shares in June 2007. Firat said when the
news of the drug seizure broke, he had verified with MENAS
that he legally was no longer a partner. "Even if I was
still a partner, how can you claim that the owner of a
company is responsible for drugs placed in a truck?" Firat
asked. At the debate's close, Kilicdaroglu insisted Firat
should resign as an MP, and Firat again called on
Kilicdaroglu to admit he is a slanderer.


4. (U) The debate dominated media headlines, with news
outlets drawing different conclusions as to its significance
and the victor. Leftist-nationalist "Cumhuriyet" wrote that
Kilicdaroglu's accusations "made Firat sweat," while
liberal-leaning "Taraf" wrote that Kilicdaroglu "could not
knock out Firat." Islamist-leaning "Yeni Safak" wrote there
were no winners. "Radikal's" Murat Yetkin and "Milliyet's"
Fikret Bila both opined that Kilicdaroglu had failed to offer
convincing evidence to support his claims and Firat failed to
give a convincing explanation to the allegations of export
fraud, leaving viewers unsatisfied.

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Is Something Afoot on the Center-Right?
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5. (U) Following the debate, Former AKP Deputy Prime
Minister Abdulattif Sener revived speculation he plans to
form a new center-right party when he criticized Erdogan
during an interview with Kanal D's Mehmet Ali Birand. Sener
told Birand that Erdogan and other "key government officials"
who "hold critical posts in Turkey" are linked to those
responsible for the Deniz Feneri scandal. He called on
Erdogan to stop "blocking the investigations" into the fraud.
Further fueling press speculation about Sener's intentions,
on September 25 AKP Yozgat MP Mehmet Yasar Ozturk, rumored to

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be a confidante of Sener, resigned from AKP. Press reported
that Ozturk had been disappointed he was named fourth on
AKP's candidate list for Yozgat in July 2007 elections, and
had long considered leaving AKP.


6. (C) Sukru Kucuksahin, a "Hurriyet" journalist with ties to
Motherland Party (ANAP),told us that following the
Constitutional Court's ruling on AKP closure, "The non-AKP
center-right stands no chance in the near term." Kucuksahin
said ANAP and opposition Democratic Party (DP) lack
attractive new leaders, money, and modern organizational
structures. In his view, those dissatisfied with AKP are
discussing bygone politicians whose time has passed,
including former PM Mesut Yilmaz. Kucuksahin dismissed
Sener's chances, saying that his deep religious conviction
and fierce loyalty to the state would not be able to attract
a broad based following. He thought Turkish Union of
Chambers and Commodity Exchanges (TOBB) President Rifat
Hisarciklioglu could draw a substantial following, but is
unlikely to challenge Erdogan at a time when the prime
minister appears relatively strong.


7. (C) Halil Sivgin, President of the Turkish Democracy
Development Foundation, and former Minister of Health under
Turgut Ozal, told us real opposition is nonexistent; only
opposition from inside AKP, an economic meltdown, or a
military coup could take down AKP. Though he believes the
latter two are very unlikely, Sivgin said existing tension
between Erdogan and President Gul could escalate into a wider
political conflict. Sivgin said Gul, eyeing control of the
party, was content to see corruption allegations against
Erdogan become public without speaking out. Sivgin expects
Erdogan to reshuffle his cabinet to replace ministers Sivgin
believes are clearly loyal to Gul: FM Babacan, MOI Sahin,
MOE Guler, and State Minister Aydin.


8. (C) Director of the International Strategic Research
Organization (USAK) Director Sedat Laciner told us there will
be no serious challenge to AKP in the near future.
Commenting on the center-right, he said ANAP and DP are
"flailing" by looking to leaders from prior eras. Laciner
agreed that "AKP will fall only by way of a civil war inside
the party" but vehemently denied Sivgin's claim about the
existence of an Erdogan-Gul conflict. Both Laciner and
Kucuksahin believe Erdogan and Gul may have run-of-the-mill
disputes on minor policy issues but are in close sync on
overall political philosophy.

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Tension Expected in Parliament
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9. (C) Laciner believes allegations of corruption against AKP
will dominate the political debate when Parliament opens for
business on October 7 and distract MPs from working on
important issues. Having lost the battle to close AKP, CHP
will steadily release files it has diligently amassed on
instances of corruption that may involve AKP members, and
continue to demand a parliamentary commission investigate the
Deniz Feneri scandal. Though he expects opposition
Nationalist Action Party (MHP) to pile on the criticism,
Laciner emphasized that Erdogan, never one to shy away from a
political battle, is unlikely to back down. The result would
be a distracted Parliament that fails to address the economic
and social problems confronting Turkey. AKP's
"preoccupation" with March 2009 local elections will also
distract AKP, according to Laciner. He expects AKP to
introduce "populist measures" to gain votes but pursue none
of the critical EU-oriented reforms outlined in the GOT's
Third National Plan.


10. (C) AKP whip Sadullah Ergin and CHP Konya MP Atilla Kart
treated us to a preview of the likely tension during a
September 25 Iftar dinner discussion. Reflecting on the
Kilicdaroglu-Firat debate, Kart told us AKP is replete with
intolerance and corruption. In his view, Erdogan
demonstrated AKP's fundamental intolerance when, still
seething over Dogan Media Group-owned "Hurriyet's" coverage
of the Deniz-Feneri scandal, took the "Hitleresque" step of
urging his party members on September 19 not to buy any Dogan
newspapers. Ergin countered that it was inappropriate to
beleaguer Parliament with allegations of corruption that

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should be pursued in court. Ergin argued that CHP is stuck
in the past and lacks its own proposals to address real
issues confronting Turkey.

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Political Ball in Erdogan's Court
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11. (C) Laciner told us AKP has begun to face pressure from
unlikely sources, including the Independent Industrialists'
and Businessmen's Association (MUSIAD),a union of small
business owners usually supportive of AKP. Concerned that
continuing tension would foment an uncertain economic
environment, MUSIAD leaders pressed Erdogan at a September 25
meeting to address the Deniz Feneri graft allegations by
launching a government probe. The group presented Erdogan a
report that called on him to address the "deepening
uncertainty in Turkey" through "better governance, pluralism
and more effective use of consultation mechanisms." The
report urged the government to focus on long-term goals and
set a specific time-table for implementing EU-related
reforms. The report also urged Erdogan to reshuffle his
cabinet and inject new public confidence in the economy and
politics. Laciner is near-certain Erdogan will reshuffle the
cabinet and said the extent of the change will depend on the
content of the Constitutional Court's detailed verdict in the
AKP closure case, expected out in October.

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WILSON