TURKEY: OPPONENTS SEE CHINKS IN AKP'S ARMOR AMID

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001667

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: OPPONENTS SEE CHINKS IN AKP'S ARMOR AMID
CORRUPTION ALLEGATIONS AND ECONOMIC WOES

REF: ANKARA 1643

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary and comment: Critics of the ruling Justice
and Development Party (AKP) point to a recent SONAR company
poll showing a decline in AKP's popularity to 32 percent as a
sign voters are souring on the party. Opposition
politicians, journalists, and analysts believe a struggling
economy and persistent allegations of corruption have
tarnished AKP's reputation and leave the party vulnerable.
AKP contacts dismissed the poll as unreliable and insist the
party's own polling shows its popularity has risen to 52
percent. Turkish polling has historically been inaccurate;
in the lead-up to July 2007 parliamentary elections, most
polls predicted AKP would capture 35-40 percent of the vote
-- far under the 47 percent it ultimately received. Though
opposition parties will continue to try to connect AKP to
corruption and economic woes, AKP's diligent election
preparations and robust local organizational structures,
combined with the lack of any decent alternative, mean AKP
remains the strong front-runner leading up to March 2009
local elections. End summary and comment.

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Poll Shows Dramatic Drop in AKP Support
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2. (U) SONAR polling company's September 1-9 poll concluded
voter support for AKP has plummeted in recent weeks. When
2927 people in 22 provinces, 22 sub-provinces and 36 villages
were asked "Who would you vote for if elections were held
today," 32 percent responded AKP, 22 percent CHP, 14 percent
MHP, 6 percent DTP, and the remainder for other parties that
have not performed well in recent elections. (Note: In July
22, 2007 parliamentary elections, AKP received 47 percent of
the vote, CHP 21, and MHP 14.) When asked wither AKP
government was successful, 52 percent responded no, 29
percent yes, and 19 percent undecided. Those polled showed
discontent over a struggling economy and possible AKP ties to
corruption. Sixty-three percent said they regarded the
current economy negatively and only 20 percent saw it in a
positive light. Thirty-two percent of respondents believed
the Prime Ministry is connected to the Deniz Feneri
corruption scandal (reftel),19 percent said it is not, and
48 percent said they did not know. Evincing a lack of trust
in the government, 65 percent said they did not believe
official figures on inflation, while 23 percent did.

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AKP Vulnerable Amid Weak Economy, Corruption Scandals
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3. (C) Opposition Democratic Left Party (DSP) MP Huseyin
Pazarci told us a weak economy and AKP's ties to corruption
had led to its drastic decline in the SONAR poll. Pazarci
felt that an important sign of AKP corruption was the "clear
evidence" that AKP MP Saban Disli had used political
influence for personal profit, leading Disli to resign as
party whip. A sign of deeper AKP corruption is the Deniz
Feneri scandal, Pazarci said, noting German judge Jurgen
Muller's September 17 statement upon announcing the verdict
that the "whole organization was directed from Turkey" and
"Zekeriya Karaman, director of Kanal 7 (a station with close
ties to AKP),had a big influence in the crime." Pazarci
also noted that German prosecutor Kerstin Lotz said at the
verdict that the real directors of the embezzlement scheme
are in Turkey. Combined with a weak economy, such corruption
cases had dented confidence in AKP among the rural voters in
his Balikesir Province district, south of Istanbul, Pazarci
thought.


4. (U) Main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) Vice
Chairman Cevdet Selvi slammed AKP during a September 17 press
conference for its "corruption and looting." Selvi called on
PM Erdogan to immediately "declare his properties" before the
public." Selvi charged AKP with failing to carry out its
economic promises, which he said had led former AKP voters to
"run out of patience."


5. (C) Eurasia Group's Turkey analyst Wolfango Picolli told
us he also believes AKP is slipping in the polls due to a
weak economy and corruption. Picolli believes the worldwide

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slowdown is having a great impact on Turkey, and that "no one
in the GOT knows how to react." The liquidity of the Turkish
economy puts it at risk, according to Picolli, who noted
that, if $8 billion moves out of Turkey, it will cause a 20
percent drop in the lira. Voters are feeling the pinch, with
high unemployment verging on 20 percent, even though official
figures put it at 9, Picolli said. The continuing fallout of
the Deniz Feneri corruption case in Germany has also affected
Turkish voters, who know that corruption is endemic in Turkey
but who still do not like to see their political leaders
getting caught with their hands in the till. Many who voted
for AKP feel betrayed, Picolli told us. Further economic
problems, or additional details of the Deniz Feneri scandal
coming to light, could spell trouble for AKP, Picolli said.


6. (U) Newspaper columnists have also recently opined that
AKP is vulnerable. Cuneyt Ulsever, a columnist in mainstream
"Hurriyet," wrote on September 17, "it is unclear whether PM
Erdogan is really aware of the serious nature of the global
economic crisis. Corruption and poverty are famous for
toppling governments. It looks like the duo is just about to
strike in Turkey." Liberal-intellectual "Radikal's" Murat
Yetkin said the Turkish government and judiciary must open a
comprehensive investigation into the Deniz Feneri case,
"otherwise it will not be easy for AKP to come out of this
cleanly."

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AKP Dismisses Poll, Says Popularity Up
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7. (C) AKP contacts dismissed the results of the SONAR poll
as unreliable. Vice Chair Egemen Bagis told us September 17
the man-on-the-street admired PM Erdogan's willingness to
stand up to Dogan, a figure who had long been able to "get
his way through lies and campaigns of media pressure"
(reftel). Bagis said AKP's popularity had actually been
boosted to 52 percent, according to AKP's own figures, which
Bagis believes to be far more reliable because AKP uses four
different polling companies to conduct two detailed polls
each month. Though the economy is a worry, Bagis felt voters
in local elections would be swayed most by the personalities
of candidates. In his Istanbul district, voters appear to
hold a very favorable view of AKP now, unlike their "more
distant" attitude toward the party during the closure case.
Bagis contended that "Erdogan is riding high," maintaining
good relations with President Gul and with no potential
rivals within AKP.


8. (C) AKP MP Eyup Fatsa also questioned the credibility of
the SONAR poll, telling reporters that polling companies
critical of the ruling party always try to conduct snap polls
during periods of controversy or distress. Fatsa pointed out
that in a September survey conducted by Metropoll, 51 percent
of respondents said they would vote for AKP if elections were
held today, while only 9.5 said they would vote for CHP. AKP
whip Sadullah Ergin told us though "daily developments" may
have influenced respondents in the SONAR poll, AKP retains
strong support from a "silent majority" that understands the
Turkish media is biased. Ergin noted that when Erdogan
successfully ran for Istanbul mayor in 1994, voters rejected
the Dogan media group's "slander campaign against him." He
thought this silent majority would again tune out the media
noise and support AKP.


9. (C) Bagis and Ergin told us AKP will press ahead with
Third National Program reforms during the upcoming October
session of Parliament. According to Ergin, AKP would pass
new legislation as part of its continuing struggle to create
fundamental democracy in Turkey. Bagis insisted there would
be concrete progress on EU reforms by the end of October.
Both said a cabinet reshuffle is likely, but claimed no
knowledge of PM Erdogan's leanings on potential changes.
Bagis believes Erdogan will create a cabinet-level position
for an EU negotiator, but denied rumors that he is slated for
the new portfolio.

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A Mistake to Underestimate AKP
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10. (C) Following AKP's overwhelming victory in July 2007
parliamentary elections, many believe it would be foolish to

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underestimate the party's potential in March 2009 local
elections. KONDA polling company's director Bekir Agirdir
sounded a note of caution when he told reporters, "Before
July 22 elections there were some polls that showed CHP would
get 29 percent and AKP 28 percent. Most polls predicted AKP
would capture 35-40 percent of the vote. But a very
different and unexpected result occurred." Picolli believes
AKP is preoccupied with local elections to the point of being
indifferent about its much-touted Third National Plan.
According to Picolli, AKP talks a good game on EU accession
and the National Plan, but it's all theater. These are all
old plans and there's no real focus. When it comes to
elections, Picolli sees AKP as formidable: organized,
well-funded, and focused. AKP knows what matters to voters
at the local level: clean water, utilities, and handouts.

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WILSON