TURKEY: RULING AKP AIMING HIGH IN MARCH 2009

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001626

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: RULING AKP AIMING HIGH IN MARCH 2009
LOCAL ELECTIONS, WHILE FIGHTING CORRUPTION CHARGES

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary and comment: Showing signs of the political
prowess that led to its political dominance, Turkey's ruling
Justice and Development Party (AKP) is astutely gearing up
for March 2009 local elections well before its opponents.
AKP hopes to demonstrate it is "the party of all Turkey" by
increasing the number of women in elected office and
capturing the as-yet unconquered cities of Izmir, Trabzon,
Mersin, Diyarbakir, and the Cankaya sub-municipality of
Ankara. Foreshadowing a tense political season, opposition
Republican People's Party (CHP) and Nationalist Movement
Party (MHP) are seeking to discredit AKP at every
opportunity, most recently by spotlighting incidents of
alleged corruption. Erdogan has proved politically astute by
recently sidelining one of his key advisors linked to a
bribery scandal, and may be able to temporarily deflect
accusations of corruption and reduce uncertainties about his
commitment to secularism by carrying out a rumored cabinet
reshuffle. Silencing criticism in the longer term will
require him to control his combative instincts and muster the
political will to carry out genuine legislative reform, a
difficult challenge given the opposition's commitment to
stonewalling. End summary and comment.

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AKP Eyeing Key Cities In March 2009 Local Elections
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2. (C) AKP Vice Chairman for Local Administration Huseyin
Tanriverdi told us AKP seeks to demonstrate in March 2009
local elections that AKP is the party of all Turkey. Though
AKP currently has MPs from 80 out of 81 provinces, it has not
been able to capture five significant municipalities: Izmir,
Trabzon, Mersin, Diyarbakir, and the Ankara sub-municipality
of Cankaya. Tanriverdi is screening potential candidates for
these cities based on their political track records, ability
to convey AKP's "world perspective," and ability to work
cooperatively with local constituencies and civil society.
Tanriverdi believes if AKP selects viable candidates, the
party's superior track record on provision of municipal
services will give it credibility among voters in each
municipality. AKP will announce its candidates by
mid-December, according to Tanriverdi. The Supreme Election
Board will convene on January 1, at which time campaigning
may begin.


3. (C) AKP Women's Auxiliary President Fatma Sahin, just back
from a trip to Diyarbakir to rally AKP's female members
there, told us AKP hopes to significantly increase the number
of women in municipal government. Though AKP does not have
quotas, it will put forward more female candidates than
previously with the intention of increasing the number of
female mayors from 2 to 10 and municipal council members from
1.5 percent to 15 percent. Tanriverdi said AKP recently
demonstrated its commitment to the issue by conducting a
political training seminar in 22 provinces for women from any
political party. Approximately one-quarter of the 4,0000
attendees were from parties other than AKP.


4. (C) Parliament legal expert Seref Iba told us AKP would
sweep local elections, citing a September survey conducted by
Ankara-based Metropoll that showed slightly more than 50
percent of Turks would vote for AKP if parliamentary
elections were held today. Iba said AKP is planning to
capitalize on its large majority in parliament by keeping
approximately 200 of its 339 MPs in Ankara -- enough to
convene Parliament -- in order to free up as many as possible
to campaign in their home districts. Metropoll director Ozer
Sencar believes that if the current trend continues, "AKP may
reach 60 percent in the local elections." Sencar told us the
Constitutional Court's ruling to not close AKP had increased
Turks' optimism. In the September survey, 49.1 percent of
respondents said they believe Turkey is heading in the right
direction, as opposed to 38.6 at the outset of the closure
case in March. The desire for economic stability is largely
responsible for the change, according to Sencar, who noted,
"Turks considered the closure case as a destabilizing factor
for the economy. People want stability, not crisis."

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Ever Cognizant Of Elections, AKP To Proceed With Caution

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5. (C) Sahin told us the GOT will focus on addressing
economic and public works issues in the lead-up to elections.
Tackling important but less controversial issues such as
monetary policy and trade law would allow the party to
maintain focus on increasing its margin of victory in the
elections, Sahin thought. AKP MP Yasar Yakis, Chairman of
Parliament's EU Harmonization Committee, told us AKP will
implement reforms under the EU umbrella. The Constitutional
Court closure case had taught AKP that focusing on single
hot-button issues, such as the headscarf, would draw attacks
from opposition parties and create suspicion of AKP's
intentions. Tying reforms to the EU process will demonstrate
AKP's commitment to making changes for the benefit of all
Turks. Iba said he expects PM Erdogan to take small steps
"within the boundaries of the system." Erdogan's recent
public criticism of AKP MP Edibe Sozen after press reported
Sozen was preparing a draft law to require purchasers of
pornography to be registered in a government database
demonstrated Erdogan "got the court's message."

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Opposition Seeks to Discredit AKP
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6. (C) Opposition politicians in recent weeks have seized
opportunities to accuse AKP of corruption. CHP leaders
chastised AKP founding member and current MP Saban Disli for
allegedly accepting a bribe of $1 million to manipulate
zoning rule for personal profit. Disli denied the charges
but ultimately resigned his party post as foreign relations
vice chairman. CHP whip Hakki Suha Okay called the move
insincere unless Disli gives up the shield of parliamentary
immunity by resigning from parliament. Speaking to the
press, Erdogan claimed he rejected Disli's request to resign
from Parliament and AKP. In another incident, CHP filed a
court case accusing Asim Guzelbey, the AKP mayor of the
southeastern city of Gaziantep, of accepting YTL 700,000
(approximately $570,000) to change zoning rules to allow for
business development. CHP has also criticized State Minister
for Foreign Trade Kursat Tuzmen of having extramarital
relations with a Russian supermodel and for his outspoken
trade threats against Russia that government spokesperson
Cemil Cicek immediately retracted.


7. (C) Most recently, CHP and MHP leaders have censured
Erdogan for his angry comments to Aydin Dogan, Turkey's most
powerful media magnate. The Erdogan-Dogan spat was triggered
by the Dogan Media Group's coverage on September 4-5 of
allegations that an indictment by the German authorities
against a German-based charity called Deniz Feneri
(Lighthouse) implicated Erdogan. The media coverage
suggested that Erdogan had received funds from the
organization and that Turkey had applied political pressure
to try to persuade the German authorities to release the
accused from custody. On September 6, Erdogan delivered a
furious public warning to the Dogan Group, denying he knew
the accused and threatening to reveal details of what he
alleged were the Dogan Group's own illegal activities unless
it ceased publishing articles linking him to the scandal. He
also claimed that the Dogan Group was seeking revenge for his
refusal to use his influence to change the zoning designation
of land around Istanbul's Hilton Hotel, which the Dogan Group
purchased for $255.5 million in 2006, in order to allow it to
be developed. Dogan denied the claims. CHP's Deniz Baykal
called on Erdogan to explain whether he knows the suspects
and whether he has received any funds form the charity.
MHP's Bahceli criticized Erdogan for "resorting to blackmail
in panic in a bid to silence press reports about the
irregularities."


8. (C) While CHP and MHP hyped the corruption charges, the
parties refused to grant leadership-level appointments to FM
Babacan to discuss AKP's Third National Program, a 400-page
document outlining AKP's EU harmonization plans, including
amendment of 131 laws and 242 pieces of secondary
legislation. One law in the Program would establish a
parliamentary "political ethics commission" aimed at
increasing the transparency and accountability of MPs with
respect to their commercial activities. Speaking to the
press, Babacan accused the two parties of manipulating the EU
harmonization process for political gain. Babacan was left

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to pitch the program to Democratic Left Party (DSP) leader
Zeki Sezer and Democratic Society Party (DTP) Ahmet Turk.

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Whispers of a Cabinet Reshuffle
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9. (C) Ankara is rife with speculation that PM Erdogan will
reshuffle his cabinet soon. Iba believes Erdogan will
replace five to eight ministers before parliament convenes on
October 5. To help silence criticism of corruption and
demonstrate his secular bona fides, Erdogan will increase the
number of women in his cabinet and remove ministers seen as
ineffective, corrupt, or overly Islamist, he predicted.
Islamist-leaning "Zaman" wrote that Erdogan "plans an
extensive reshuffle," and will create a new state minister
position for EU Chief negotiator to address EU complaints
over FM Babacan's inability to focus adequately on EU
accession and his duties as foreign minister concurrently.
The paper tipped Karaman MP Lutfi Elvan and AKP vice-chairman
Egemen Bagis as leading candidates for the post.
Leftist-nationalist "Cumhuriyet" reported Erdogan is expected
to replace Nimet Cubukcu (Women's Affairs),Kursad Tuzmen
(Foreign Trade),Huseyin Celik (Education),Faruk Ozak
(Housing and Public Works) and Ertugrul Gunay (Culture and
Tourism).

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WILSON