Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ANKARA1604
2008-09-05 14:16:00
SECRET
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

TURKEY: STAFFDEL MAKOVSKY IN ANKARA, SEPT. 1-2

Tags:  PGOV PREL TU 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7236
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHFL RUEHIHL RUEHKUK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV
DE RUEHAK #1604/01 2491416
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 051416Z SEP 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7377
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL PRIORITY 4699
RUEUITH/ODC ANKARA TU PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001604 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE - FITZPATRICK, BRINK, GARBE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: STAFFDEL MAKOVSKY IN ANKARA, SEPT. 1-2

ANKARA 00001604 001.3 OF 002


Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons: 1.4 (B,D)

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001604

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE - FITZPATRICK, BRINK, GARBE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: STAFFDEL MAKOVSKY IN ANKARA, SEPT. 1-2

ANKARA 00001604 001.3 OF 002


Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons: 1.4 (B,D)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On 1-2 September a House Foreign Relations
Committee Staff delegation led by Alan Makovsky discussed the
situation in Georgia, energy issues, and the ongoing
Israel-Syria talks with senior Turkish government officials
at the Presidency, Prime Ministry, and Ministry of Foreign
Affairs. The interlocutors warmly welcomed the staffdel,s
visit and provided insights into Turkish foreign
policymaking, emphasizing Ankara,s continued shared agenda
and common approach with the US on regional issues. END
SUMMARY

Georgia
--------------

2. (C) The recent crisis in Georgia was the primary topic of
many of the Staffdel,s conversations. AKP Deputy and
Chairman of Turkish Parliament,s Committee on Foreign
Affairs Murat Mercan described the recent Russian-Turkish
trade dispute as Russian punishment for Turkey,s aid to
Georgia. Mercan estimated that the breakaway regions of
Abkhazia and South Ossetia are lost to Georgia. According to
Mercan, a nation must either have the capability to stop
Russia or have Russia on their side, adding that Russia has
never wanted to be on the same side as Europe.


3. (C) The chairman of the opposition Republican People,s
Party (CHP),Deniz Baykal, criticized the AKP government,s
approach to the Georgia crisis, saying that the government
appears unsure of its policy. The CHP had hoped
Turkish-Georgian relations would open new doors in the
Caucasus. Stressing the importance of economic and energy
relations with Russia for Turkey, Baykal described the AKP,s
proposed Caucasus Cooperation and Stability Platform as
unrealistic and poorly timed, saying that Turkey cannot
influence Russia, cannot protect Georgia, and the agreement
would only legitimize a Russian role in the Caucasus. "We
don,t have any cards to play, we can,t impose a scheme, and
so we shouldn,t look to play a large role."


4. (C) During a discussion with Mehmet Ali Bayar, former DTP
politician and advisor to President Demirel, Bayar claimed to
be the co-author of the original Caucasus Platform under
Demirel. He explained that the goal of the platform was to

camouflage dialogue with Armenia. When asked about the
nature of Turkish-Russian relations, Bayar noted that Russia
is better at treating Turkey as an equal than the US, citing
the noticeably warmer welcome Turkish Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan received during his recent visit to Moscow as
compared to French President Nicolas Sarkozy. Bayar
cautioned the Staffdel that the USG should take careful note
of these small diplomatic signals, and echoed the widely held
belief among Turkish officials and pundits that the US needs
to carefully maintain its relationship with Ankara because US
policies in the region cannot be successful without Turkish
support.


5. (C) MFA Deputy Undersecretary Haydar Berk preferred to
look on the bright side, noting that a positive outcome of
the Georgia crisis could be renewed interest and work on the
Nabucco pipeline. He took it as a good sign that Russia did
not disturb the BTC pipeline, and noted that Russia is still
providing gas and electricity to Georgia.

Russia, Iran, and Turkey,s Energy Needs
--------------

6. (C) According to MFA Undersecretary Ertugrul Apakan, the
Nabucco pipeline is a top priority for Turkey. He explained
that Turkey would like to develop energy deals with Iraq and
Turkmenistan using Nabucco as the conduit. Apakan emphasized
to the Staffdel that despite Iranian interest in the
pipeline, the MFA sees no role for Iran in Nabucco. During a
discussion with MFA Deputy Undersecretary Feridun
Sinirlioglu, he explained that Turkey is looking for an
alternative to Russia for energy supplies , but currently
there are few other options besides Iran. Prime Ministry
Deputy Undersecretary Hakan Fidan seconded that message,
saying that the GOT would take other options if it had them.
Faruk Demir, an independent consultant and advisor to Energy
Minister Hilmi Guler, clarified the difference in the
Ministry of Energy (MOE) and the MFA,s agendas, noting that
Guler,s top priority is securing Turkey,s domestic supply,
versus the MFA,s longer-term strategic energy agenda.
According to MOE estimates, Turkey,s domestic energy market
is growing at 8 percent per year. When Staffdel raised US
concerns with a Turkish-Iranian energy deal, Demir replied
that the AKP government is out of its depth when playing

ANKARA 00001604 002.3 OF 002


international strategic games. Demir speculated that by
2025-30, Iran will be Turkey,s biggest energy supplier,
followed by Iraq and Russia.


7. (C) Turkish officials were generally pragmatic in
discussing the recent visit of Iranian President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad and the possibility of a major gas deal between
Ankara and Tehran. According to Apakan, the Ahmadinejad
visit was not a signal of Turkish policy change, emphasizing
that Ankara does not share Tehran,s views. Sinirlioglu
described the visit as an opportunity to emphasize to Iranian
officials that Turkey is a Western country and NATO member as
well as Iran,s neighbor. He pointed to President Gul,s
long, private discussion with Ahmadinejad during which he
claims Gul was very blunt. According to Sinirlioglu, Turkish
officials emphasized that the P5/1 opportunity was important,
would not be on the table indefinitely, and the Iranians
should agree to it while it is still on offer. He related
that President Gul senses that Tehran is still trying to play
the P5/1 off each other. Sinirlioglu cautioned the Staffdel
that the P5/1 need to be clear and consistent in their
messages to Iran. Fidan seconded that message, telling the
Staffdel that Iran is ready for "freeze-for-freeze" but that
Iranian officials are confused about what exactly would be
frozen. Noting that Erdogan is encouraging Tehran to find a
solution, Fidan reiterated Ankara,s belief that the best
policy is to engage Iran and bring them in to the
international community.

Israel-Syria Talks
--------------

8. (C) Apakan described the Israeli-Syrian talks as Turkey's
"contribution," noting that Turkey has not taken the place of
the US but is playing a complementary role. He noted that
the GOT ultimately anticipates turning the talks over to the
US, but hopes there will be a continued role for Turkey.
Sinirlioglu called the talks a step in the right direction
and hoped they will open the door to further, future
improvements. He said a move to direct talks would indicate
that a framework is ready and signal the time for US
involvement. Sinirlioglu said the next round of talks is
pending, as both sides are keeping an eye on likely
leadership changes in Israel. According to Sinirlioglu they
are not three-party talks yet, and the Israeli and Syrian
delegations do not stay at the same hotel, but the Turks are
bringing them physically closer and closer at each round.


9. (C) In a discussion with Israeli Ambassador to Turkey
Gavriel Levy, Levy noted that Turkish-Israeli relations have
never been symmetrical, saying Israel has been "courting"
Turkey for a long time. However, Levy said Turkish-Israeli
relations are strengthening, and noted that Israel hopes to
pursue energy deals through a pipeline linking Ceyhan and
possibly Haifa for crude oil, natural gas and perhaps water,
electric, and telecommunication lines. According to Levy,
the GOI is currently doing a feasibility study with Turkey's
Calik Group and the government of India.


10. (S) Levy said that with the opening of Israeli-Syrian
talks via the Turks, Israel has given the AKP government an
international diplomatic success, noting that it appears that
Turkey is being regarded with a new respect. He described
the AKP government as almost euphoric, but cautioned that he
hopes Israel won't regret agreeing to the Turkish mediated
talks. According to Levy, Erdogan personally spearheaded the
talks and courted former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon
for 3 years. Levy described the Prime Minister's advisor
Ahmet Davutoglu as the key player laying the groundwork for
the talks behind the scenes, saying the Turkish MFA was only
invited to participate after the talks were made public.
According to Levy, Davutoglu believes Turkey deserves to have
a major role in the talks even after the US becomes involved.


11. (U) Staffdel Makovsky did not have an opportunity to
clear this cable.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey

WILSON