TFGG01: TURKEY'S CAUCASUS STABILITY AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001513

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA, EUR/SE, EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2018
TAGS: PREL AM AJ GG RU TU
SUBJECT: TFGG01: TURKEY'S CAUCASUS STABILITY AND
COOPERATION PLATFORM

REF: A. SECSTATE 89369

B. ANKARA 1478

Classified By: CDA Doug Silliman, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. The GOT continues to roll out its "Caucasus
Stability and Cooperation Platform" concept, with PM Erdogan
visiting Baku August 20. Based on contacts with MFA
officials, the concept, stemming from a 2000 proposal from
then-President Demirel, is still being refined. MFA contacts
have emphasized that the platform is meant to support the
territorial integrity of Georgia and to contribute to
normalized relations between Moscow and Tbilisi. The
Russians are reportedly receptive, but Georgian support is
contingent upon the withdrawal of Russian troops. Turkey
also envisages the platform as a mechanism through which to
advance dialogue between Ankara and Yerevan, and Yerevan and
Baku. The proposed platform will not be implemented without
the support of all five countries -- Turkey, Russia, Armenia,
Azerbaijan and Georgia -- and the GOT plans to brief the
Armenian leadership soon. Any role Allies or other
international institutions would have in the proposal is
still uncertain, but officials tell us there will be one.
Local Caucasus experts are skeptical of the plan's chances
for success. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) CDA conveyed the substance of ref A points to MFA
Deputy U/S for Americas Haydar Berk August 20, suggesting
that the GOT should have consulted with the U.S. in advance
of its launch, asking how it would integrate with other
international efforts in the region, including the Minsk
Group, Friends of Georgia, PfP, and EU neighbors policy.
According to Berk, the stability and cooperation platform is
not fleshed out yet, but the GOT plans to push ahead. It is
still uncertain whether the platform would form under the
auspices of an international organization. Berk acknowledged
that Turkey should have engaged with the U.S. before floating
the idea, but added that the plan had been "on the shelf" for
years, and when the Georgia crisis developed, the idea jumped
out as a natural response. Nevertheless, Turkey looks
forward to U.S. contributions, he said.


3. (U) Returning from Baku August 20, where he traveled with
PM advisor Davutoglu, FM Babacan and MFA Deputy U/S Cevikoz
to brief President Aliyev on the proposal, Erdogan said to
the press, "This platform should be based on geography. It
should aim at achieving peace and security in the region,
including economic cooperation and energy security. This
platform should be based on the principles of the OSCE.
There should be a joint mechanism concerning administering
and finding solutions. This platform will make stability and
cooperation in the region stronger." The Turkish National
Security Council (NSC) will take up the GOT's Caucasus
initiative in its August 21 meeting.


4. (C) Outgoing MFA South Caucasus Section Head Yavuz Kul
provided us some additional background August 19 on the
proposed stability platform. Contrary to what Berk told us,
Kul said the plan is already well-formed and, from the
Turkish perspective, could be implemented quickly, conditions
permitting. MFA began developing the concept some time ago
based on a 2000 proposal by then-Turkish President Demirel.
(Russia was opposed at that time, as was Armenia, and the
proposal did not take off.) MFA had recently updated the
idea, hoping to reintroduce it as a mechanism through which
Turkey and Armenia could further engage. The platform, with
Russian and Azerbaijani participation, would create a
multilateral context in which Turkey and Armenia could more
easily take the necessary steps to normalize their
relationship, such as formally recognizing and opening the
border.

ROLLING OUT THE STABILITY PLATFORM
--------------

5. (C) The Georgian crisis led Turkey to quickly introduce
the plan. PM Erdogan discussed it with President Medvedev
and PM Putin in Moscow August 13 and with President
Saakashvili August 14 (ref B); Cevikoz told us August 15 the
Russians were interested in the proposal, and that Turkey and
Russia had agreed their MFAs would consult on its details.


6. (C) Kul said President Gul could discuss the proposal with

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Armenian President Sargsyan in Yerevan, if Gul accepts the
invitation to attend the September 6 World Cup qualifier,
which Kul implied was a strong possibility. (The Turkish NSC
will discuss the invitation in its August 21 meeting.)
Erdogan remarked August 20, "There will be talks with Armenia
concerning the platform. This week our FM will talk to the
Russian FM and following that meeting we will decide how the
meeting with Armenia will take place." The GOT is convinced
Armenia will support the stability platform proposal. Baku
will be more skeptical, but Erdogan can persuade Aliyev, Kul
believes.

NO IMPLEMENTATION WITHOUT RUSSIAN WITHDRAWAL
--------------

7. (C) President Saakashvili, according to Cevikoz and Kul,
was open to the Turkish proposal, but underscored that
Tbilisi could not support any regional initiative until
Russian troops withdraw from Georgia, a position reemphasized
to us by Georgian CDA Irakli Koplatadze in a separate meeting
August 19. Koplatadze indicated GOG apprehension, noting
Georgia's discomfort with President Gul's remarks in an
August 16 "Guardian" interview, in which Gul envisioned a
"new multipolar world emerging from the wreckage of war," and
that "the conflict in Georgia showed that the United States
could no longer shape global politics on its own, and should
begin sharing power with other countries."


8. (C) Kul stressed that Turkey is supporting Georgia's
territorial integrity through the proposal, which cannot and
will not be implemented until Russia withdraws from Georgia.
Turkey believes the platform, by creating a mechanism for
dialogue between Tbilisi and Moscow, could contribute to
normalized relations between the two.

UNCERTAIN ROLE FOR ALLIES
--------------

9. (C) The proposed platform, according to Kul, would be
composed of the five founding states, with subsidiary bodies
formed to address technical issues. The platform could
provide a mechanism for engaging non-state actors, e.g., de
facto governments in breakaway territories, but such
engagement could only occur with the consent of member
states. The GOT does not wish to include Iran in the
organization, Kul noted. Asked about observership, Kul said
no details have been developed, but he sought to assure us
that Allies will have a role. He further emphasized that
Turkey recognizes the importance of the Georgian crisis to
NATO and will continue to fulfill all its NATO obligations,
but Turkey needs to take advantage of its geographic position
and its balanced, good relations with both Moscow and Tbilisi.

EXPERTS CRITICAL
--------------

10. (C) TOBB University International Relations Department
Professor and Caucasus expert Mitat Celikpala described as
absurd the GOT advancing such an initiative at a time when
the whole region is in conflict and Turkey and Armenia have
no diplomatic relations. The proposal is meant to show the
public that Turkey has a plan for dealing with instability on
its border, he surmised. Celikpala noted how, as a result of
Turkey's failed policy of closing the border with and
isolating Armenia, Turkey found itself "stuck with Georgia"
for its energy and transportation lifelines, while not
contributing at all to democratic development or conflict
resolution in the region. The Caucasus stability platform is
not a credible solution, he said. It is more evidence of the
government's agenda for developing a regional policy
independent of the United States and NATO.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey

SILLIMAN