HOW TURKEY'S YOUTH VIEW THE US: LOSING A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001508

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2017
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: HOW TURKEY'S YOUTH VIEW THE US: LOSING A
GENERATION?

REF: A. ANKARA 1168

B. ISTANBUL 137

C. ANKARA 1782

D. ANKARA 1104

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Kelly Degnan for reasons 1.4(
b),(d)


1. (C) Summary and Comment. Turkey faces a "demographic
window of opportunity," with 60% of its population under
the age of 30. Politically disengaged and generally
neglected as a resource by political parties (refA),young
Turks face high unemployment and a country struggling to
balance tradition with modernization. Those who work with
this largely excluded segment fear a "time bomb" of
dissatisfied youths, most of whom grew up witnessing
domestic and regional conflict and endemic corruption. The
majority favors a decrease or total cessation of Turkish-US
relations, with a growing number opposed both to American
policies and Americans as people. While many young Turks
predict a new US president will improve bilateral relations
significantly, they urged the US to intensify outreach to
Turkey's youth, before anti-Americanism congeals in the minds
of Turkey's future leaders. End Summary and Comment.

Tomorrow's Leaders: Turkey's Youth Demographic
-------------- -

2. (C) With 60% of Turkey's population under 30, according to
a 2007 census, the country faces what the United Nations
Development Program (UNDP) calls a "demographic window of
opportunity"; in 15 years, today's youth will form the
majority of Turkey's workforce and decision makers. A
politically and economically neglected resource, Turkey's
youth is coming of age in a time of polarization, corruption
and high unemployment; approximately 18% of
young Turks are unemployed, versus an overall rate of 10%.
UNDP said rectifying this employment vacuum is "the most
critical issue" for Turkey's long-term stability and growth,
a view echoed in discussions with Turkish youth
from diverse economic and social backgrounds. Students and
teachers also complain that Turkey's educational system
focuses extensively on rote memorization, rather than
critical thinking, leaving students ill-equipped for a
competitive, globalized world (refs B,C,D). In a March 2008
Metropoll survey of university students, only 22%
viewed Turkey's future positively; 69% felt Turkey is heading
for the worse. Serdar Dinler, manager of the Jean
Monnet scholarship program, warned of a "time bomb" if this
significant segment of Turkey's society remains
disenfranchised and disaffected.

Perceptions of the US: Slipping, But Not Yet Lost
-------------- --------------

3. (C) Over 50% of university students felt Turkish-US
relations should either decrease or totally cease,
according to Metropoll's survey; 46% identified the US as the
most serious external threat to the Turkish Republic,
with terrorism a distant second at 11%. Several young Turks
pointedly asked us, "After the US invades Iran, will
Turkey be next?" One Middle East Technical University
student described the Turkish-US relationship as having
devolved from a parent (the US) watching out for his child's
(Turkey) interests, to the US as neighborhood
bully. Unsal Genc, a leader of youth movement Genc Ari
Hareketi, and others attribute negative perceptions of the
US to media coverage, perceived slights against the interests
of Muslims and the Turkish Republic, and negative
portrayal by professors, parents, and peers. Genc worried
these anti-American views formed by youth today are likely
to remain their opinion for years to come. Soner Cagaptay,
Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute, explained that
Turkey's youth have witnessed a string of negative events,
including the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the Abu Ghraib
scandal, perceived inaction or even support by the USG of
terrorist PKK groups in northern Iraq, Congressional
efforts to pass an Armenian genocide resolution, and the July
4, 2003 hooding of 11 Turkish Special Forces soldiers
detained by US forces. These incidents have begun to congeal
in the minds of Turkey's youth, Cagaptay said,
shaping their perceptions and leading to a potentially
long-lasting, negative view of the US. Osman Gokcek,
president of the Turkey Youth Federation (Turkiye Genclik
Federasyonu) and son of Ankara Mayor Melih Gokcek, agreed

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with Cagaptay's diagnosis, noting Turkey's youth have "known
only violence." Many hold the US responsible for
regional bloodshed, particularly regarding Iraq and the PKK.
The US is losing Turkey's youth, Gokcek warned,
adding they are not yet irretrievably lost.


4. (C) While young Turks we met with frequently called the US
a hegemon or "empire," many voiced frustration at
America's inability or unwillingness to control world events
and more actively advocate for human rights,
political freedoms, and international stability. One student
acknowledged the US, as the world's most powerful
nation, is also the most criticized and blamed. Several
youth described Turkey's relationship with the US as
"one-way," with Turkey "powerless" and "paying tribute"; they
claimed USG officials fail to adequately consider
Turkey's interests and needs. Many view US interests in
Turkey as economic and military-centric, with secondary or
superficial commitment to other issues. Turkey "doesn't
benefit" from the bilateral relationship, they concluded.

America vs. Americans
--------------

5. (C) Many young Turks critical of the US clarified they
oppose the USG, not the American people. A significant
increase in student and Summer Work/Travel visa applications
reflects continued interest by Turkey's youth,
even if initial motivations are often economic rather than
cultural. Embassy Consular Officers report former Summer
Work/Travel students often return seeking a student visa.
Many who visited the US told us how surprised they were by
Americans' warmth and hospitality, and by Americans' genuine
interest in Turkey. Despite these positive impressions,
others warned that Americans are increasingly seen as linked
to deeply unpopular USG policies.


6. (C) Cenk Kupeli, President of the Grand Youth Association
(Buyuk Genclik Dernegi),predicts that as Turkish youth
with access to technology communicate directly with more
Americans, friendships and political ties will form that
could stimulate political activism. Cultural connections
between Americans and Turks remain
strong, Kupeli said, adding such relationships should be
expanded. His initial impression of the US and the
Ambassador as unreachable and aloof changed completely after
attending a movie night hosted by the Ambassador, who
he found to be warm and welcoming, he said. He suggested
additional youth-targeted events, expanded exchange
programs and increased activism by American NGOs in Turkey to
break down perceived barriers. According to Serdar
Dinler, the US needs to become more accessible to all of
Turkey, not just the elite and highly educated. The
private sector Summer Work/Travel, rather than programs like
the Fulbright fellowship, provides a better model for
expansion, he said. The US must "play the long game" and
seriously commit to improving opportunities and resources
for Turkish youth if it wants to improve perceptions of the
US, Dinler commented.

A Fresh Start?
--------------

7. (C) Turkish youth we met with were nearly unanimous in
condemning recent USG policies, particularly regarding Iraq
and perceived US support for the PKK (refC). Maintaining
that much of the criticism centers around the President,
Kupeli suggested the November elections would begin to repair
the divide, regardless of who wins. While many we
spoke with are not closely following the election, those who
are frequently cited the historic impact of electing an
African-American. Some felt Barak Obama would be more
sympathetic to the needs of Turkey and the Middle East, a
tendency several attributed to the false rumor that Obama is
a Muslim. Others were concerned Obama would support an
Armenian genocide resolution, igniting further
anti-Americanism. A less optimistic segment doubts a new
president will significantly improve Turkish-American
relations; they view the anchoring economic, political, and
strategic calculations of the US as unmalleable and problems
in Iraq as likely to continue for the foreseeable
future. Kupeli strongly urged the US not to wait for a new
president to start improving America's image among Turkey's
youth.


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