ALL GAIN, NO PAIN: TURKEY'S KYOTO PROTOCOL

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001477

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2018
TAGS: ENGR SENV EAGR TU
SUBJECT: ALL GAIN, NO PAIN: TURKEY'S KYOTO PROTOCOL
ACCESSION STRATEGY

Classified By: ECONOMIC COUNSELOR DALE EPPLER FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) MFA Department head for Environment Nursel Berberoglu
said August 13 Turkey is ready to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.
By delaying until now, Turkey believes it can ratify without
incurring any binding obligation to reduce emissions (despite
being an Annex 1 country),and still participate fully in
negotiations on a post-Kyoto framework. MFA has long argued
that Turkey needs to join Kyoto to advance its EU accession
prospects and to protect its interests as the EU designed an
emissions trading system and set emission reduction rules
that will apply to the Turkish industry. The GOT also
expects the EU to provide substantial new technical and
project assistance after it ratifies. Ruling Justice and
Development Party (AKP) MP Reha Denemec confirmed that Kyoto
ratification would be high on the Parliament's agenda when it
reconvenes in October, adding he expects it to pass without
opposition. He views the Protocol as part of Turkey's EU
accession and as opening the way to additional EU funds. End
Summary.


2. (C) Berberoglu said that the Ministry of Energy and the
State Planning Organization (SPO) had long opposed Turkey
joining Kyoto. MFA led the fight for ratification, arguing
that Turkey needed "a seat at the table" in international
climate change costs, and the only way to obtain one was by
ratifying the Protocol.


3. (C) In addition, Kyoto and climate change had become
issues in Turkey's EU accession. EU member governments
regularly raised climate change in bilateral discussions, and
the European Commission had been pressuring Turkey to present
a climate change strategy and emissions control plan. MFA
also argued that Turkey needed to be part of the discussion
within the EU on an emissions trading system and emission
reduction rules that will directly affect Turkish industry.


4. (C) According to Berberoglu, Prime Minister Erdogan
decided early in 2008 that Turkey would ratify Kyoto, but
left open the question of when to join. MFA was able to get
Energy Ministry and SPO agreement by showing that despite
being an Annex 1 county, Turkey could ratify in July 2008
without incurring any binding emissions reduction obligation
(since there is too little time left under the Protocol); GOT
would have a seat at the table during EU negotiations
affecting Turkish interests; and the EU would provide
"substantial" additional technical and project assistance to
Turkey and Turkish industry. They had expected the
Parliament to ratify Kyoto in July, but it was still pending
when it adjourned. Although Parliament remained in session
until shortly after the Constitutional Court's July 30
decision in the AKP closure case, the Protocol did not come
to the agenda. Berberoglu doubted the delay would affect the
GOT's plans to participate in EU negotiations.


5. (C) Denemec confirmed to us on August 13 that ratifying
the Kyoto Protocol would be high on Parliament's agenda when
it reconvenes in October. He expects the ratification to
pass without any real opposition, arguing Turkey must ratify
the Protocol as part of its EU accession process. There is
public support for action on climate change, he said, and the
EU will provide new assistance funds to Turkish business in
exchange.

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