TURKEY: MIND THE GAP: PM ERDOGAN'S SOUTHEAST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001403

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV ECON TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: MIND THE GAP: PM ERDOGAN'S SOUTHEAST
PROPOSAL

REF: A. REF A: ANKARA 996

B. REF B: ANKARA 1091

Classified By: Political Counselor Daniel J. O'Grady for reasons 1.4(b)
,(d)


1. (C) Summary and comment. The Southeastern Anatolia
Project (GAP) had new life amid renewed doubts. PM Erdogan
recently announced the GOT plans to dedicate $21.5 billion to
complete the project by 2012 (Ref A). An ambitious $32
billion multi-sector regional development scheme harnessing
the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, GAP will benefit nine
provinces constituting nearly 10 percent of Turkish territory
and population in a predominantly Kurdish region. Erdogan's
GAP Action Plan seeks to irrigate one million hectares,
complete several dam and hydroelectric power (HEP) projects,
and support regional economic, social, infrastructure, and
institutional development. While Erdogan and supporters are
confident the government can deliver on this significant
project, southeastern opposition leaders remain skeptical of
the PM's sincerity and question whether political motivations
are the engine behind the proposal. Erdogan has five years
to prove his government's commitment to GAP is genuine rather
than opportunistic. End summary and comment.

Better Late Than Never?
--------------

2. (U) Erdogan's May 27 Diyarbakir speech revived interest
in the 30-year old GAP initiative designed to improve living
conditions in Turkey's impoverished Southeast. As Today's
Zaman columnist Andrew Finkel notes, "the people of Turkey's
Southeast must be greeting the government's proposals to
throw USD 20 billion into the development of their region
with equal measures of cynicism and hope." After 30 years of
slow progress, the size and scope of the GOT's Action Plan
and Erdogan's announcement of significant political
commitment reassure many in the region that the latest
proposal may have a positive impact on their lives. Sabah
columnist Abdurrahman Yildirim warns the government must keep
its promises and complete the project as scheduled "in order
not to cause further feelings of disappointment in the
region." PM Erdogan answered this charge when announcing the
new plan, proclaiming "What we are announcing here today is
not a report or a project or a case file. It is an absolute
plan of action."


3. (C) Opposition leaders criticized Erdogan's GAP Action
Plan, arguing that while the development projects outlined in
the proposal are important and badly needed in the region,
they are years overdue. Mesut Deger, Republican People's
Party (CHP)-Diyarbakir MP, told us GAP could offer a
"rebirth" for the economy of the region. Deger lamented the
lack of progress on GAP over the last six years of AKP rule,
noting that in 2004 AKP proposed a parliamentary motion to
close the GAP Administration. While Democratic Party (DP)
leader Salim Ensarioglu acknowledged the GAP's previous
accomplishments and predicted a realized proposal would be
"the beginning of the state embracing its people," he doubts
the Action Plan is serious. Former Cizre mayor and
Motherland (ANAP) MP Hasim Hasimi agreed. Hasimi called the
GAP Action Plan "a good step," noting previous dam
construction under GAP protects the region from drought and
flooding. He pointed out that villagers' requests from 30 or
40 years ago for water, electricity, and highways remain
unmet. Hasimi declared people in the region are tired of
being consulted; they want results. Hasimi was skeptical
Erdogan's proposal would last longer than previous
governments' initiatives in the southeast, which he described
as unfocused and sporadic.


4. (C) Serafettin Elci, a leader in pro-Kurdish
Participatory Democracy Party (KADEP),called the GAP Action
Plan "important for regional economic problems," but was
cynical of the GOT's commitment. Elci noted PM Erdogan
committed to the needs of the Southeast in a 2005 speech in
Diyarbakir, but "didn't follow up." AKP-Diyarbakir MP
Abdurrahman Kurt admitted shortcomings of previous GAP
development efforts, but said earlier critics were convinced
when the GOT delivered irrigation, electricity, and roads to
the region. Kurt predicted, "We will be able to see in five

ANKARA 00001403 002 OF 002


years if the Action Plan has been implemented". If the
government reneges on its promise, the voters can hold them
responsible.

Timing is Everything?
--------------

5. (C) Contacts criticized Erdogan's Action Plan as an effort
to project political strength, rather than genuinely address
the needs of southeast residents. "Bloomberg News", noting
the looming constitutional court case against the PM and AKP,
concluded "Erdogan needs a boost." Ensarioglu agreed,
telling us the catalyst for the Action Plan was the
Constitutional Court, not the needs of the southeast. With
political calculations, not an understanding of the region's
needs driving the proposal, Ensarioglu called the plan
insincere for political ends. Kurt defended the Action Plan,
noting extensive consultation with residents and officials
from the Southeast ensured the PM's proposal addressed the
needs of the region. Opposition leaders, Kurt noted, were
unable to question the widespread improvement the region will
experience as the Action Plan is implemented.


6. (C) "Der Spiegel" also suggests political factors led to
the timing of the Action Plan's announcement, reporting "the
PM is hoping that the additional investment will produce
ballot-box successes in municipal elections next March."
Diyarbakir Mayor Osman Baydemir and Democratic Society Party
(DTP)-Mus MP Sirri Sakik agreed with this diagnosis, calling
the Action Plan part of an election campaign. Hasimi told us
the plan is an attempt to demonstrate the necessity of
Erdogan and the AKP; without them the region would descend
into "chaos." The political options for the region swing
between AKP, which Hashimi says has no serious projects, and
DTP, which has no projects. Finkel concurred, stating, "AKP
is now presenting itself as a force which is able to transfer
resources from the central government to the region -
something the DTP will never have clout to do."

Critics: An Economic Solution for a Political Problem
-------------- --------------

7. (C) When announcing the Action Plan, Erdogan promised,
"With this project the socioeconomic wounds that have been
exploited by separatist terrorism... will be completely
healed." However, with nearly 60 percent of the cost of GAP
already invested, academic Hisyar Ozsoy notes that Turkey's
fight against violent Kurdish separatists continues.
Hasankeyf Mayor Abdulvahap Kusen observed, "If GAP was really
improving the region, we should have already seen its impact.
We still haven't seen an improvement here compared to other
regions in Turkey." Ozsoy argues, and Director General of
the Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research
(SETA) Ibrahim Kalin agrees that the Kurdish issue is an
"ethno-nationalist conflict" demanding political and cultural
reforms; GOT efforts to resolve it solely with socio-economic
measures are "more fantasy than reality." Opposition leaders
from the region, including Hasimi and Sakik, share this
criticism, calling the economic rather than political focus
of government efforts "dangerous." Full-time
Kurdish-language broadcasts on state-owned Turkish Radio and
Television Cooperation (TRT),proposed by the PM as part of
his southeastern initiatives, if realized, may be a
significant step to addressing this demand (Ref B).

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey

WILSON