Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ANKARA1372
2008-07-30 15:02:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

TURKEY: GUL-ALIYEV/SAAKASHVILI BILATERALS

Tags:  PREL PGOV ELTN ETRD ENRG EPET AJ AM GG TX TU 
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P 301502Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7004
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-3/J-5// PRIORITY
RUEUITH/ODC ANKARA TU PRIORITY
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RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001372 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA, EUR/SE, EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV ELTN ETRD ENRG EPET AJ AM GG TX TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: GUL-ALIYEV/SAAKASHVILI BILATERALS

REF: A. ASHGABAT 964

B. ANKARA 1326

Classified By: DCM Doug Silliman, reasons 1.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001372

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA, EUR/SE, EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV ELTN ETRD ENRG EPET AJ AM GG TX TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: GUL-ALIYEV/SAAKASHVILI BILATERALS

REF: A. ASHGABAT 964

B. ANKARA 1326

Classified By: DCM Doug Silliman, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Energy issues and Azerbaijani-Turkmen
relations monopolized President Gul's bilateral with
Azerbaijani President Aliyev, at the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK)
railway groundbreaking ceremony in Kars, July 24, MFA U/S
Cevikoz told the DCM July 29. Gul also had an unexceptional
discussion with Georgian President Saakashvili focusing on
transporation infrastructure. The GOT is concerned that
Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan relations are back to square one due
to the Caspian gunboat incidents, and Turkey is once again
offering to facilitate dialogue and cooperation to open a
route for Turkmen gas to flow westward and contribute to a
southern gas corridor to Europe. Gul continues to mull
Armenian President Sargsyan's invitation to Yerevan; Turkish
domestic developments will largely determine whether the
visit takes place. END SUMMARY.

GEORGIA: INFRASTRUCTURE DISCUSSED
--------------

2. (C) Gul and Saakashvili focused on infrastructure during
their bilateral on the margins of the BTK groundbreaking
ceremony. The two sides, according to Cevikoz, noted BTK's
importance and expressed hope that it and the Turkey-Georgia
joint-use Batumi airport would serve as examples of
cooperation for other countries in the region. They
discussed the need for additional infrastructure and
investment, including a third border crossing, at Cildir, to
accommodate more trade. Bilateral trade has mushroomed, and
a substantial portion of Turkey's trade with Central Asian
region passes through Georgia. Moreover, Cevikoz estimated
indirect Turkey-Armenia trade through Georgia to be valued at
about $160 million and growing. Cevikoz noted that a
possible opening of Turkey's border with Armenia could hurt
Georgia economically, even as it would benefit Armenia with
lower transport fees.

AZERBAIJAN: COMPLAINTS ABOUT TURKMENISTAN;
CONCERNED ABOUT TURKEY-ARMENIA RELATIONS
--------------

3. (C) Aliyev had reported positively to the Turks on
Berdimuhamedov's May visit to Baku, but the April gunboat
incident in the Caspian appears to have set relations "back
to square one" (see ref A). Gul discussed with Aliyev
linking Turkmen and Azerbaijani offshore platforms, enabling
the export of Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan and Turkey. Turkey
will continue to press Turkmenistan to commit gas to Turkey,
building, it believes, on a pledge by former Turkmen
President Niyazov.


4. (C) The Aliyev-Berdimuhamedov feud threatens the success
of the next Turkic summit, a major Turkish priority,
scheduled tentatively to be held in Baku, September 5.
Turkey had sought Berdimuhamedov's attendance eagerly, but he
is now likely to downgrade Turkmenistan's participation.
Uzbek President Karimov will not attend either, as in
previous years.

ARMENIA-TURKEY RAPPROCHEMENT
--------------

5. (C) Cevikoz speculated that Baku will be none-too-pleased
if Gul accepts Armenian President Sargsyan's invitation to
attend the September 6 Turkey-Armenia World Cup qualifier in
Yerevan, the very day after the summit in Baku. Cevikoz said
Gul is still considering the invitation and suggested he
might accept. If he does, he will do so in a way that "puts
the ball back in Armenia's court." Domestic political
developments in Turkey over the next few weeks will largely
determine whether Gul will be able to go to Yerevan.


6. (C) Cevikoz noted Turkey's satisfaction with the ongoing
Turkey-Armenia talks in Switzerland, commending Armenia's
constructiveness. He reiterated Turkey's opposition to
pre-conditions for normalizing diplomatic relations: he
thinks the Armenians understand. The border cannot be opened
overnight, he said, but the overall approach is constructive
and the two sides might be close to a "serious development."
Cevikoz said Gul intended to send a positive message to
Armenia by visiting Ani July 23 -- the first by a Turkish
president to the Armenian border, where he inspected ongoing

ANKARA 00001372 002 OF 002


archaeological work (ref B).

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey

WILSON