KING'S RUSSIA VISIT AIMS TO BOLSTER TIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 002484

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PREL RU JO
SUBJECT: KING'S RUSSIA VISIT AIMS TO BOLSTER TIES

REF: A. AMMAN 1983

B. IIR 6 853 0330 08

C. IIR 6 853 0640 08 (PENDING)

D. IIR 6 853 0372 08

E. IIR 6 853 0631 08

Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft, for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary and Comment: King Abdullah, accompanied by
Royal Court Chief Bassem Awadallah, has just wrapped up an
August 21-24 trip to Russia, where he met with both President
Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to discuss
a range of bilateral and Middle Eastern issues. Coming on
the heels of a mid-July visit to Russia by Foreign Minister
Salah Al-Bashir, the trip is probably best viewed as part of
Jordan's ongoing efforts to expand and enhance political and
trade relations in Central and East Asia (Ref A). Planned
before the Georgia crisis, the trip is evidence of the King's
prioritization of the bilateral Russia-Jordan relationship.
End Summary and Comment.


2. (C) Director of the Foreign Minister's Private Office
Jamal Al-Shamayleh on August 24 explained to PolCouns that
the visit was not cancelled, despite events in Georgia, for
fear that the cancellation would be "misinterpreted." While
Jordan is concerned about events in Georgia on a humanitarian
basis, he said, it does not have significant national
security interests at stake in the conflict, and thus would
avoid taking any steps that would irritate anyone.


3. (C) The timing of the visit may have been linked to the
ongoing MVSV-2008 arms exhibition in Moscow. ITAR-TASS on
August 20 published a report that Russia and Jordan had
presented their joint Hashim RPG-32 portable anti-tank (refs
B-E) grenade launcher at MVSV-2008. Jordan has also been
engaging Russia as it looks to develop a peaceful civilian
nuclear energy program.

On Georgia: Not Taking Sides, But Not Precisely Neutral
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Jordanian press coverage carefully tracked official
news agency accounts. Reports note the King's satisfaction
with the level of Jordanian-Russian ties, a mutual
willingness to develop them further, and the importance of
Russia's role in advancing the Middle East peace process.
The government-owned English-language daily Jordan Times
(circulation 10,000) editorialized on August 25 that "this is
no time to take sides in the crisis, but rather an
opportunity to promote a diplomatic solution to it." Its
sister publication, l-Rai, and Jordan's other
government-aligned daily, Ad-Dustour, sounded similar notes
in today's masthead editorials. The King's pledge to quickly
dispatch humanitarian relief aid to the conflict-ravaged area
through the Jordan Hasehmite Charity Organization, however,
prompted Medvedev, who observed that this was the third
meeting he had held with the King in the past six months, to
thank his Majesty for his "intention to provide humanitarian
aid to South Ossetia after the catastrophe that took place in
the region."


5. (C) In an August 24 conversation with PolOff, Chairman of
the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Lower House of
Parliament Muhammad Abu Hdeib blamed Georgia for the crisis.
Georgia he said, had taken provocative actions in South
Ossetia, "apparently with the go-ahead from the West."
Jordan opposes the expansion of NATO, he claimed, especially
the inclusion of those states bordering Russia. Such action
was bound to provoke a once-again superpower - emboldened by
its oil wealth - that of late has been acting with greater
self-assurance. Abu Hdeib further asserted that Jordan and
the rest of the Arab world are concerned by evidence that
Israel trained and provided arms to the Georgian military.
He argued that these actions - and U.S. efforts to isolate
Russia over Georgia - risked driving Moscow closer to Tehran,
which will complicate efforts to rein in Iran's nuclear
program.


6. (SBU) Abu Hdeib's comments were reflective of the mood in
Jordan, which has generally been more sympathetic to Russia -
even if sometimes cautiously. In a Jordan Times op-ed
published on the eve of the King's visit to Russia, Former UN
Ambassador Hasan Abu Nimah wrote that while "Israel's
aggression against Lebanon (in July 2006) was warmly welcomed
by some U.S. officials as the 'birth pangs of a new Middle
East,' Russia's actions were unequivocally condemned as
savagery and barbarism... reactions remain plagued by glaring
double standards." Writing on August 18, in Al-Dustour,
Columnist Rakan Majali wrote that "it is now proven and
confirmed that the United States was the one that urged
Georgia to invade South Ossetia... Russia definitely does not
want anything more than to protect its existence and its
vital space and interests." Writing on August 14, Columnist
Jamil Nimri wrote in the independent Arabic daily Al-Ghad
that "for the first time, Russia scores a good and clean
goal, and for the first time it imposes its position and
will... As Russia growled, Georgia truly trembled, and in
this lies a future lesson for all Russia's neighbors not to
ignore or defy it."


7. (C) Ministry of Foreign Affairs Director of Policy
Planning and Research Omar Nahar, in an August 25
conversation with Poloff, cited flux in the international
arena as the end of the Bush Administration draws near. He
speculated that Russia was probably testing the waters, but
denied that there was any shift in Jordanian policy taking
place (though he said he could not speak on behalf of the
Royal Court). "We have always had good relations with the
Russians, but we know where we stand in terms of relations
with the U.S.. We do believe you are our strongest ally." he
said, adding that "I can almost guarantee you that there is
no change in policy." Nahar agreed that the Russians were
using the visit for propaganda purposes, however. "They're
very good at that," he chuckled.

The Appeal of a Resurgent Russia
--------------


8. (C) Some observers, both in Jordan and regionally, has
pointed to a generalized Arab satisfaction that Russia is
asserting itself and perhaps positioning itself to again play
a major role in the region. Sana Abdallah wrote on August 19
in the regional newspaper Middle East Times about how the
Arab street "hopes to see the end of a Washington-centered
unipolar world," further nothing that analysts observe that
it is tough for Arabs to back the U.S. position on Georgia
when Tbilisi is so close to Israel. Such sentiments were
echoed by Parliament's Abu Hdeib, who observed that many in
the Arab world are happy to see a resurgent Russia, which had
the potential to bring "balance" toward the Middle East. But
even as he implicitly took Russia's side, he cited the
current crisis as further evidence of how quickly the U.S.
will abandon its allies, "except for Israel, of course."

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The King's decision to go ahead with the trip
probably reflected concern that a cancellation would have
sent a strong anti-Russia message at a time that Jordan is
working assiduously to expand its ties with the former Soviet
Union writ large and with Russia in particular. The trip
finds few opponents among the commentariat in Jordan, which
by and large is nostalgic for cold war-era "balance" in the
region, and indifferent to the Georgian telling of its
conflict with Russia.

Visit Amman's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/
Beecroft